Seamless Forecast System
- Challenge and Opportunity
Yuejian Zhu
Ensemble Team Leader
EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Presents for NWP Forecast Training Class
March 30, 2015, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction
Forecast
suite
Forecast
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Development
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Development
suiteService
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Service
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New TechnologyDecision & Management
Post Process Adding Values
User RequirementData AssimilationNWP Models
Planning
Chapter 1: Prediction Science – An Introduction
• General Weather Forecast– Historical overview (from first weather map to today’s digital forecast)– Development of environmental Science– Changing world from new technology: super-computer, satellite and radar– Latest NWP products (e.g: satellite look-a-like forecast)
• Completing the Forecast: Forecast Uncertainty– Debating: deterministic or probabilistic?– Challenge and opportunity– Where do the uncertainties come from?– Relative measure of predictability
• Ensemble System– Dynamic approach for assimilation and forecast (Monte Carlo)– Capturing flow dependence variation of forecast uncertainty– High dimensional solutions (state * probability)– Probabilistic measure and full PDF
• Verification and Confidence– Important tools– Forecast verification: accuracy and consistency– Two attributes: reliability and resolution– One scenario: confidence
Uncertainty forecast
Forecast verification
Forecast verification
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Weather Forecast --- Science
Weather Forecast --- Arts
METEOROLOGIST气象学家
NEWS PAPER
RADIO
TV
END USERSMANAGEMENTS
DECISION MAKERS
INTERNET
预报科学 ( 大气科学学报 2010)
朱跃建( 美国国家环境预报中心 国家海洋和大气管理局 , 美国 马里兰 20746)
摘要 : 世界各国和各地区的环境预报中心的主要任务是向本国、本地区和全球公众发布科
学的环境预报 , 包括天气、水、气候和空间天气的预报。气象学家与其他科学家合作 , 一起制作可靠、及时、准确的分析结果、指导意见、预报及预警 , 以确保人们的生命和财产安全 , 促进全球经济的发展 , 以满足人们日益增长的对环境信息的需求。为了更准确地制作预报、更好地服务大众以及最大限度地减少生命和财产损失 , 这里提出了“预报科学”思想。预报科学包括现代观测系统的资料收集、观测与预报信息的实时交流、各种科学技术的发展、无缝隙预报以及公共服务等。预报科学可以概括为三个相互独立的部分 , 即科学性、工程性和艺术性 , 且三者存在相互作用。总之 , 天气预报是大气与环境服务的重要组成部分 ; 预报科学的科学性、工程性和艺术性均服务于天气预报、服务于人民。
关键词 : 天气预报 ; 科学性 ; 工程性 ; 艺术性中图分类号 : P4; P45 文献标识码 : A 文章编号 : 167427097 (2010) 0320266205
Chapter 2: From Prediction to Projection- A Continuous Spectrum
• Concept: Seamless Forecast Suite– To understand forecast uncertainty– Forecast countdown, seamless– A continuous spectrum– Interactions between atmosphere-ocean-land
• Short-term, Medium-range and Extended-range Forecast– State-of-art numerical models– Promised observation information– Improving NWP system– Fine, digital forecast
• Seasonal to Annual Outlooks– Anomaly forecast for temperature and precipitation– Events discussion (such as ENSO, MJO)– Seasonal weather review - guidance– Climate prediction - outlooks
• Climate Projections– Expected and unexpected users– Societal requirements, expectations, and educations (policy relevance)– Reliability, user confidence, and risk– What’s next? (climate science, society, human being)
Forecast modeling
Forecast modeling
Climate projectionClimate projection
Chapter 3: From Research to Application- Cross the Valley of Death
• Science and Technology Infusion– Changing world: leading science and technology– Planning and project design: roadmap– Tracking and monitoring of progress– Accountability - benefits
• Interactions– Research-development-application: forward and backward (R2O, O2R)– Exchanging information: conference and workshop– Government role: achievement– Interaction with users
• Operational Updates– NWP models– Observation system– Information transmission (web, ftp and etc..)– Interaction
• Extreme Weather Forecast– Different view from different angle– Social and economic impact– Protection of values– Saving of lives
Extreme weather forecast
TransitionTransition
Chapter 4: From National Center to End User- Warranty and Responsibility
• Information Quality and Warranty– Functionalities of national center (such as NCEP)– Warnings and alert, watches– Guidance and Outlooks– Information refresh (updating)
• Technical Support– Post-process from model developers– Adding values to NWP – technology/engineering issues (such as MDL)– Down-scaling (such as NDGD, NDFD)– Interactive display system (such as AWIPS, NAWIPS, AWIPS 2)
• Coordination and Responsibilities– From center to regions– From forecasters to end users– Public service and private sector– Specific and targeted services
• Forecast and Decision– Public educations (general public and decision/policy makers)– Bridges of communication– Economic values– Science based decision – management system
DecisionForecast
Chapter 2: From Prediction to Projection- A Continuous Spectrum
• Concept: Seamless Forecast Suite– To understand forecast uncertainty– Forecast countdown, seamless– A continuous spectrum– Interactions between atmosphere-ocean-land
• Short-term, Medium-range and Extended-range Forecast– State-of-art numerical models– Promised observation information– Improving NWP system– Fine, digital forecast
• Seasonal to Annual Outlooks– Anomaly forecast for temperature and precipitation– Events discussion (such as ENSO, MJO)– Seasonal weather review - guidance– Climate prediction - outlooks
• Climate Projections– Expected and unexpected users– Societal requirements, expectations, and educations (policy relevance)– Reliability, user confidence, and risk– What’s next? (climate science, society, human being)
Forecast modeling
Forecast modeling
Climate projectionClimate projection
Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty
Minutes
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NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate/Weather/Water
Weather Prediction Products
Climate PredictionProducts
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HYDROLOGIC
PRODUCTS
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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Space Weather Prediction CenterAviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations
Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
Tropical Prediction Center
Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
Storm Prediction Center
Presented 17 February 2012 16
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction
CPC
HPC
SPC
SWPC
AWC
OPC
NHC
NCO
EMC
Presented 17 February 2012 17
The EMC Mission…..
Develop and Enhance numerical guidance– Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model
systems via:• Scientific upgrades• Optimization• Additional observations
Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations– Transform & integrate
• Code• Algorithms• Techniques
– Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation
Maintain operational model suite– The scientific correctness and integrity of
operational forecast modeling systems– Modify current operational system to adapt to
ever-present external changes
EMC location within the funnel
In response to operational requirements:
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Week 2 Hazards Assessment
Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty
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2 Week
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NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
CPC
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Warnings & Alert Coordination
Watches
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Threats Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Benefits
TPCOPCHPC
SWPCAWCSPC
Service Center Perspective
Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8
Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :
NDFD, Days 4 -7
6-10 Day ForecastM
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Seasonal Predictions
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Forecast UncertaintyForecast Uncertainty
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NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Climate Forecast System*
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Warnings & Alert Coordination
Watches
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Threats Assessments
Guidance
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Benefits
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model
Hurricane Models
Global Forecast System
North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation
Dispersion Models for DHS- GFDL - WRF
NCEP Model Perspective
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North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products
Bias correction and combines global
ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA
Generates products for:Weather forecasters
Specialized usersEnd users
Operational outlet for THORPEX research using TIGGE archive
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NCEP CMC NAEFSModel GFS GEM NCEP+CMC
Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF ETR + EnKF
Model uncertainty/Stochasti
c
Yes (Stochastic Pert) Yes (multi-physicsand stochastic)
Yes
Tropical storm Relocation None
Daily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC
Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55kmT190L42 (d8-16)~70km
About 50kmL72
1*1 degree
Control Yes Yes Yes (2)
Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 40 for each cycle
Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days
Post-process Bias correction(same bias for all
members)
Bias correction for each member
Yes
Last implementation February 14th 2012 November 18th 2014
NAEFS Current StatusUpdated: November 18th 2014
12hr 2m TemperatureForecast Mean Absolute Error w.r.t RTMA for CONUSAverage for September, 2007
GEFS raw forecast
NAEFS forecast
GEFS bias-corr. & down scaling fcst.
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NCEP/GEFS raw forecast
NAEFS final products
4+ days gain from NAEFS
From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC)Dual-resolution (NCEP only)Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC)Combination of NCEP and CMC
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From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC)Dual-resolution (NCEP only)Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC)Combination of NCEP and CMC
NAEFS final products
NCEP/GEFS raw forecast
8+ days gain
24-h GMOSForecast
12-h NDFDForecast
For CONUS:GEFS(3.07) : NDFD(3.60)
GEFS (+17%)GEFS(3.07) : GMOS(3.37)
GEFS (+10%)
24-h GEFSForecast
Summary of 6th NAEFS workshop1-3 May, 2012 Monterey, CA
6th NAEFS workshop was held in Monterey, CA during 1-3 May 2012. There were about 50 scientists to attend this workshop whose are from Meteorological Service of Canada, Mexico Meteorological Service, UKMet, NAVY, AFWA and NOAA.
Following topics have been presented and discussed during workshop:• Review the current status of the contribution of each
NWP center to NAEFS• For each NWP center, present plans for future model and
product updates, for both the base models and ensemble system (including regional ensembles)
• Decide on coordination of plans for the overall future NAEFS ensemble and products (added variables, data transfer for increased resolution grids, FNMOC ensemble added to NAEFS, especially for mesoscale ensemble-NAEFS-LAM)
• Learn about current operational uses of ensemble forecast guidance, including military and civilian applications.
7th NAEFS Workshop in Montreal, Canada
• Time: 17-19 June 2014• Locations:
– 17-18 June – Biosphere, Montreal, Canada– 19 June – CMC, Dorval, Canada
• Co-chairs: Andre Methot and Yuejian Zhu• Topics (or sessions)
– Status and plan of Global ensemble forecast systems;– Operational data management and distribution; – Ensemble verification and validation metrics; – Reforecast, bias correction and post process; – Regional ensemble and data exchange; – Wave ensembles; – Integration of ensemble in forecasts: user feedback and recommendation; – Products – hazard weather, high impact weather and diagnostic variables; – Open discussion of the NAEFS research, development, implementation and operation
plan
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Research and Operational ApplicationsIn Multi-Center Ensemble Forecasting
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html
Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth (NCEP) Acknowledgements:
Glenn Rutledge (NCDC), Andre Methot (MSC), Michel Rosengaus (NMSM), Dan Collins, Bo Cui, Richard Wobus(NCEP)
NAEFS & THORPEX• Expands international collaboration
– Mexico joined in November 2004– FNMOC joined in 2009 (NUOPC)
• Provides framework for transitioning research into operations– Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecast system:
Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
THORPEX Interactive GrandGlobal Ensemble (TIGGE)
North American EnsembleForecast System (NAEFS)
Articulatesoperational needs
TransfersNew methods
TIGGE Archive Centers and Data Providers
Archive Centre
Current Data Provider
Future Data Provider
NCAR NCEP
CMC
UKMO
ECMWFMeteoFrance
JMAKMA
CMA
BoMCPTEC
IDD/LDM
HTTP
FTP
IDD/LDM
Internet Data Distribution / Local Data Manager
Commodity internet application to send and receive data
Worley et al.
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WMO THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group
WMO GIFS-TIGGE working group meeting was held on June 26-28 2012 in Boulder, CO USA
WMO GIFS-TIGGE working group meeting was held on June 12-14 2013 in Exeter, UK
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 33
NUOPC – National Unified Operational Prediction Capability
NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) is an agreement to coordinate activities between the Department of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Department of Defense (Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and Air Force Directorate of Weather), in order to accelerate the transition of new technology, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and achieve a superior National global prediction capability.
The NUOPC partners determined that the Nation’s global atmospheric modeling capability can be advanced more effectively and efficiently with their mutual cooperation to provide a common infrastructure to perform and support their individual missions.
The NUOPC Tri-Agency (NOAA, Navy, Air Force) agreed to work on a collaborative vision through coordinated research, transition and operations in order to develop and implement the next-generation National Operational Global Ensemble modeling system.
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Good - after adjustment Bad – after adjustment
Still not good – after adjustment
Perfect – don’t need adjustment
NCEPNCEP
NCEP
NCEP
FNMOC
FNMOC
FNMOCFNMOC A B
C D
5°K
Challenge !!!
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week-1 week-2 one month
GEFS/NAEFSservice CFS
service
Weather/Climate linkage
NCEP/GEFS is running on T254L42 (GFS 9.0 version) resolution with tuned ETR initial perturbations and adjusted STTP schemefor 21 ensemble members, forecast out to 16 days and 4 cycles per day. Extended to 45 days at T126L28/42 resolution, 00UTC only (uncoupled)NAEFS will consider to include FNMOC ensemblein 2011, with improving post process which includebias correction, dual resolution and down scaling
Main eventMJO
Future Seamless Forecast System
Operational CFS has been implemented in2011 with T126L64 atmospheric modelresolution (CFSv2, 2010version) which is fully coupled with land, ocean and atmosphere(GFS+MOM4+NOAH), 4 members per day (using CFS reanalysis as initial conditions, one day older?), integrate out to 9 months.
IMME and NMME - ???
Main products:1. Probabilistic forecasts for every
6-hr out to 16 days, 4 times per day: 10%, 50%, 90%, ensemble mean, mode and spread.
2. D6-10, week-2 temperature and precipitation probabilistic mean forecasts for above, below normal and normal forecast
3. MJO forecast (week 3 & 4 … )
Main products:
ENSO predictions???Seasonal forecast???
SEAMLESS
The quality of NAEFS week-2
forecast