Global activity has continued moderating, with a particularly weak performance in exports and industrial sectors. A series of
factors have contributed to activity weakening, especially:
i) structural deceleration of the Chinese economy; ii) protectionism; iii) Uncertainty in Europe related to brexit and the
automotive sector; and iv) the cyclical moderation in the US economy. We expect global growth in 2019 and 2020 of 3.4%.
Central Banks will be more cautious in their hiking cycles in this new scenario and will help to reduce global volatility.
Internal demand, though leading growth in Colombia, will continue showing significant differences within its components.
Investment will accelerate thanks to machinery and equipment. Building construction will be limited in 2019, but will
accelerate in 2020. Civil Works will be very dynamic in 2019, but not as much in 2020 due to the political cycle of regional
governments. On the other hand, private consumption will grow in 2019 and 2020 at similar rates as observed in 2018,
given that a weak consumer confidence and the deterioration of the labor market reduce the capacity of consumption
acceleration. Finally, public expenditure will progressively decelerate.
Inflation will remain close to 3,0% in 2019 and 2020. With activity recovering slowly, controlled inflation will allow the
Central Bank to delay its interest rate hiking cycle further down in 2019, and achieve its neutral level of 4,75% in early
2020. However, Banco de la Republica will remain vigilant of the reasons behind the deterioration of the current account
deficit this year, explained more by investment than consumption, and the mid term structural fiscal adjustment needed.
Key Messages
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 2
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 3
Content
01
02
Global growth remains weak and monetary policy will be cautious
Internal demand boosts economic growth in Colombia
03 Slow recovery and low inflation delay interest rate move for the Central Bank
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 4
01Global growth remains weak and monetary
policy will be cautious
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 5
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Sep-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Ma
r-1
9CI 20% CI 40%
CI 60% Current
Period average Jun-11 to Dec-18 Trend
World GDP growth(Forecasts based on BBVA-GAIN % QoQ)
Source: BBVA Research
Global GDP has moderated more than expected
Global growth has slowed due to China's structural moderation, high uncertainty in Europe, trade protectionism and the cyclical slowdown in the US
A slight improvement is possible in the short, but activity will remain less dynamic than in previous years
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 6
Weak exports and investment, but private consumption
remains relatively robust
World Exports(Thousands of dollars)
PMIs(Level)
Source: BBVA Research based on IMF data Source: BBVA Research based on IHS Markit data
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Jan-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-16
Jul-1
6
Sep
-16
Nov-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-17
Jul-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov-1
7
Jan-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov-1
8Nominal exports
Trend
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Jan-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-17
Jul-1
7
Sep
-17
Nov-1
7
Jan-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-18
Jul-1
8
Sep
-18
Nov-1
8
Jan-1
9
Global Manufacturing PMI
Global Services PMI
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 7
Protectionism: US-China trade agreement delayed, as the EU begins
to gain prominence as focus of tensions
U.S.
China European Union
Negotiations are still
ongoing; the most
likely is an
agreement in 2Q19
U.S. threatens to
increase tariffs on
EU vehicles
EU toughens stance on China,
seen as "economic competitor"
and "systemic rival"
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 8
Growth moderation has caused a shift in monetary policy in the US
and the Eurozone, and new stimuli in China
Fed
Long pause in the
rate hike, but there
could be a hike by the
end of the year
The normalization
(reduction) of the
balance sheet will
end earlier than
expected (September
2019)
Latam and other
emerging countries
There is room for a more
dovish monetary policy
BCE
Postponement
of monetary
normalization
Lower interest
rates for longer
and additional
liquidity
China
Additional monetary
stimulus: RRR and
lending rate reductions
in 2019
Increase in public
deficit, to 2.8% of GDP
in 2019
Tax cuts (2% of GDP)
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 9
Action by central banks and an absence of "accidents" would
enable global growth to soft-land
More signs of global
slowdown
New stimulus
policies
01Protectionism An US-China trade agreement is still likely, despite the delay
02Brexit:Greater uncertainty, for a longer time
03
Financial markets: volatility constrained by central banks’ measures
Assumption on the evolution of the global outlook: no “accidents”
04Oil:Price moderation following the recent upturn
Global growth soft-lands
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 10
Without "accidents", global growth will decelerate gradually
Sube
Se mantiene
BajaSource: BBVA Research
1,0 1,3
Eurozona
2019 2020
2019 2020
3.4 3.4
World
Latam
2019 2020
1.7 2.3
2019 2020
1.4 2.2
Mexico
China
2019 2020
6.0 5.8
US
2019
2.52020
2.0
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 11
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
Dec-1
6
Fe
b-1
7
Apr-
17
Jun-1
7
Aug
-17
Oct-
17
Dec-1
7
Fe
b-1
8
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug
-18
Oct-
18
Dec-1
8
Fe
b-1
9
10Y US 10Y EZ
Markets: long-term yields excessively low due to cyclical risk and “safe
haven” effect , with volatility limited by central banks' dovish tone
Sovereign debt yields(%)
Equity indexes and Volatility (VIX)(Base 100 in Jan-15 and %)
Source: BBVA Research based on Haver data
8
13
18
23
28
33
38
43
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-1
5
Oct-
15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-1
6
Oct-
16
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-1
7
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-1
8
Oct-
18
Jan-1
9
VIX (rhs) S&P Eurostoxx
Source: BBVA Research based on Haver data
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 12
Volatility reduced in emerging economies, due to a moderation in the
expectation of interest rate hikes by CB and higher commodity prices.
CDS in Latam(Index Jan 2017=100)
Source: BBVA Research with Bloomberg data
Risk levels of emerging countries are very heterogeneussince some countries have to solve their internal and external imbalances
The realization of lower growth forecasts in develop countries and the expected fall in oil prices, could raise risk premium in emerging countries by year end.
50
100
150
200
Jan-1
8
Feb
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Apr-
18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun-1
8
Jul-1
8
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct-
18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan-1
9
Feb
-19
Ma
r-1
9
Apr-
19
Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 13
Oil markets: as expected, supply adjustments provided support to
prices in 1Q19, which will likely move down from now onwards
Brent oil prices(USD per barrel, end-of-period)
Production cuts have driven oil prices up (65 dollars per barrel, on average, in 1Q19)
We maintain prospects for lower prices in 2H19 and 2020, on slower economic growth and rising US supply
The lower global demand will also favor a drop in copper prices, although we have revised our forecasts slightly up, mainly due to supply disruptions
In the case of soybeans, we have revised our forecasts slightly upwards, but we continue to expect prices to recover moving forward
50
61
71
62
55
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2016 2017 2018 2019 (f) 2020 (f)
Current Previous
Source: BBVA Research based on Haver data
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 14
Global risks: increasing fears about a recession in the US and in the
Eurozone, in spite of central banks’ broader support
Source: BBVA Research
Recession: high
Protectionism: high
Fed’s exit: significantly lower
Recession: on the rise
• Brexit
• Italy
• Surge of Eurosceptic forces in the European Parliament
Protectionism: on the rise
ECB’s exit: significantly lower
Disorderly deleveraging : relatively higher
Protectionism: high
EE.UU.
EZ
-S
ho
rt-t
erm
pro
babilit
y +
- Severity +
CHN
Financial vulnerabilities can amplify the severity of the risks
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 16
Recent indicators signal that private consumption will grow in 2019
at a similar rate than in 2018
Consumption leading indicators(Annual variation, %)
Source: BBVA Research, with DANE, ANDI and Fenalco data. * To January for retail sales and imports. To February for employment. And to March for vehicles
5,9
-0,1
-3,5
1,7
6,8
14,7
3,8
-0,9
5,6
10,4
5,6
1,4
9,0
16,1
22,1
0,0
3,3
5,4
0,6 0,8
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Retail sales Consumption imports Car sales Employment
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19*
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 17
Employment growth, in low levels relative to previous periods,
accounts for expected consumption growth stability
Labor market: employment, supply and unemployment(Annual average. growth %y/y and rate in % of LF)
Source: BBVA Research, DANE data
Job creation rate has reduced below the growth of labor supply. As a result, unemployment rate has increased in recent quarters
Lower job creation could stall consumption acceleration
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
3
Jan-1
4
Jan-1
5
Jan-1
6
Jan-1
7
Jan-1
8
Jan-1
9Unemployment rate Employment growth
Labor supply growth
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 18
Consumer confidence remains negative due to weak country
assesment. But it has been low for a while ¿structural change?
Consumer confidence(Balance of answers)
Source: BBVA Research, Fedesarrollo data
Propensity to by durable goods and homes(Balance of answers)
22
-6 -5
95
-10-4
9
-27-28
-8 -11
-29-24
28
9 813
94 6
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Avg
.11-1
4
Avg
.15-1
7
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
*
Avg
.11-1
4
Avg
.15-1
7
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
*
Avg
.11-1
4
Avg
.15-1
7
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19*
Consumerconfidence
Countryassessment
Householdassessment
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Feb
-11
Oct-
11
Jun-1
2
Fe
b-1
3
Oct-
13
Jun-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Oct-
15
Jun-1
6
Feb
-17
Oct-
17
Jun-1
8
Feb
-19
Durable goods Home
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 19
On the other hand, leading indicators related to investment in
machinery and equipment show a favorable dynamic
Investment leading indicators(Annual variation, %)
Source: BBVA Research, DANE, XM and La Galería Inmobiliaria data. * Imports and industrial production as of January. Energy demand in February. House sales to March
3,7
0,12,6
-5,2
9,1
4,92,8
-2,8
7,4
3,5 4,12,6
25,2
3,1 3,7
12,410,1
3,04,5
-7,2-12
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
23
28
Capital goods imports Industrial production Energy demand Housing sales
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19*
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 20
In addition, capacity utilization in the industry is at high levels
respect to its recent average
Capacity utilization in the industry(% of total)
Source: BBVA Research, Fedesarrollo data
The increase in use of installed capacity is associated with higher investment needs to respond to the observed increase in internal demand
In addition, higher oil prices are an incentive to investment in the oil sector
And, the VAT deduction to investment goods approved in the Financing Law should also push for stronger investment
68,6
72,4
71,2
70,1
71,3
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
No
v-1
4
Feb
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Aug-1
5
No
v-1
5
Feb
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Aug-1
6
No
v-1
6
Feb
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Aug-1
7
No
v-1
7
Feb
-18
Ma
y-1
8
Aug-1
8
No
v-1
8
Feb
-19
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 21
Private consumption will boost total consumption from the end of
2019 and investment in machinery and equipment total investment
Final consumption: private and public(Annual variation, %)
Source: BBVA Research, DANE data
Total investment(Annual variation, %)
4,6
3,1
1,6
2,1
3,5 3,43,6
4,7 4,9
1,8
3,8
5,9
4,1
2,9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19 (
f)
20
20 (
f)
Private consumption Public consumption
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19 (
f)
20
20 (
f)
Total investment Other investment*
Investment in construction
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 22
Construction investment will have a heterogeneous behavior
within its components, improving notoriously in 2020
Construction investment by components(Annual variation, %)
Source: BBVA Research, DANE data
In 2019, residential construction and civil works
will grow. Non residential construction will contract
Residential construction will be boosted by
social interest housing, which represents
65.8% of units sold and 37.6% of the value of
those sales. In 2014 this percentages where
61.7% and 29.1%, respectably
Civil works will grow this year due to the boost
by regional governments in their last year in
office. In 2020, they should decelerate by the
effect of the political cycle as well
Non residential construction will contract this
year because building starts and buildings in
process have fallen this year. In 2020 they
should return to positive numbers given the
expected inventory reduction, to be eliminated
completely by 2021
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Civil works Non-residential Residential
2017 2018 2019(f) 2020(f)
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 23
Negative contribution by non residential construction is driven
by a fall in work in process since the end of last year
Construction under process(Million of sq. meters, end of year)
Source: BBVA Research, DANE data
Between December 2017 and 2018, work in process fell by 15%. Given this, construction culmination will be limited this year by the reduction of sq. meters in process
In particular, residential work in process fell by 12% and non residential fell by 22%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Residential Non - residential Total buildings
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 24
Total investment will increase its contribution to growth. While
public expenditure will reduce it slowly
GDP Growth and contributions(Annual variation, contribution to the growth rate, %)
Source: BBVA Research, DANE data
Private consumption remains as the most relevant component in GDP, more for its contribution than for its dynamics, despite the expected acceleration of Investment
In 2020, investment will contribute with a point of growth, highest contribution since 2014
External demand, will continue to reduce growth, given that the expected dynamic of imports is higher than the expected behavior of imports
1,4
2,73,0
3,3
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2017 2018 2019(f) 2020(f)
External demand Private consumption
Public consumption Investment in construction
Investment without construction GDP
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 25
03Slow recovery and low inflation delay
interest rate move for Banco de la Republica
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 26
Headline inflation will be close to the 3.0% Central Bank target, despite
the recent upward pressure in administered and food prices
Headline and core inflation(Annual variation, %)
Source: BBVA Research, DANE data
Inflation by type of expenditure (Annual variation, %)
3,21
2,40
3,26
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Jul-1
7
Sep-1
7
No
v-1
7
Jan-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Jul-1
8
Sep-1
8
No
v-1
8
Jan-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
Headline
Non food non administered prices CPI
Non food CPI
6,34
3,29
0,94
3,27
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Feb
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Apr-
18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun-1
8
Jul-1
8
Aug-1
8
Sep-1
8
Oct-
18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan-1
9
Feb
-19
Ma
r-1
9
Administered prices Non Tradables
Tradables Food
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 27
Food prices continue to pressure this years result, but core inflation
will continue reducing allowing for headline inflation to end at 3,0%
Source: BBVA Research, DANE data
Headline and core inflation(Annual variation, %)
Shocks revived by inflation at the beginning of the year seem transitory and are already moderating
In the first quarter, food inflation accelerated marginally by the decisions of reducing crops to prevent the effects of “el Niño” and by energy costs driven by a reduction in the levels of water reservoirs
We believe this shocks are transitory and inflation will return to its previous trend soon
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug-1
8
Oct-
18
De
c-1
8
Feb
-19
Apr-
19
Jun-1
9
Aug-1
9
Oct-
19
De
c-1
9
Fe
b-2
0
Apr-
20
Jun-2
0
Aug-2
0
Oct-
20
De
c-2
0
Headline Core Food Target Range
(f)
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 28
The exchange rate within a relatively narrow range will help to reduce
transmission effects on inflation in 2019 and 2020
Exchange rate(pesos per dollar)
* Corresponds to year-end data.
Source: BBVA Research projections and Banrep data
The exchange rate will face opposing forces that
will restrain its net upward and downward
movements (though maintaining significant
volatility) within a narrow range
Brent oil prices, though high currently, will
reduce gradually to USD62 per barrel at the
end of 2019 and to USD55 per barrel in
2020. This will be a factor that pushes the
exchange rate upward, and that also explains
part of the deterioration of the external
balance
At the same time, lower expected interest
rates and volatility in developed countries,
due to more cautious central banks, will
cushion part of the preceding effect
2.951 2.956
3.141
3.088
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-1
7
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-1
8
Oct-
18
Jan-1
9
Apr-
19
Jul-1
9
Oct-
19
Jan-2
0
Apr-
20
Jul-2
0
Oct-
20
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 29
In a context of moderate growth and low inflation, the economy will
experience a higher external deficit
Current account deficit and its financing(% of GDP. With no additional financing resources to accumulate IR***)
Source BBVA Research with Banrep data. *Portfolio investment and debt flows,
mainly;**Foreign direct investment; *** International reserves
The deterioration of the external deficit will be
explained more by investment than consumption,
even though in the latter, one ought to be vigilant
of the fiscal consolidation and consequently on
public expenditure. The external financing will be
also relevant
If the external deficit (external financing) is
used more for investment, as in 2019 and
2020, rather than what happened in 2018,
boosted by consumption, the Central Bank
may be less worrisome of such deficit
On the other hand, between 2014-2015 and
2018-2020 foreign direct investment will not
be enough to fully finance the external deficit
and some alternative resources are needed,
such as capital of debt inflows. This fact in a
more complex financial world may lead to a
source of risks that should be monitored
4,2 4,04,9
4,4
3,3 3,7 3,7
0,92,3
0,50,6 0,3
5,2
6,3
4,3
3,3
3,84,3
4,0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19(f
)
20
20(f
)
FDI** Other necessary sources* Current account deficit
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 30
Despite recent fiscal decisions, a structural plan for the mid term is
still needed
Central Government fiscal deficit (fiscal rule)(% of GDP)
Source BBVA Research and data from the Tax Rule Advisory Committee (Minutes 11 of 2019)
The fiscal rule committee, when flexibilizing the
deficit path, allowed a marginal increase of 0,4pp
of GDP in two years. This did not represent a
change in the debt path, even though an active
policy to increase revenue (asset sales) is
needed this year and in 2020
The Fiscal Mid Term plan is probably the key
tool to understand the governments structural
plan
From 2020 on, the corporate benefits
approved by the Financing Law of 2018, will
stress revenue for the government again
-2,7
-2,3
-2,4-2,2
-4,5
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
Difference New Previous
(o)
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 31
With low inflation, weak demand and a deteriorating external imbalance
(investment driven), BanRep can wait until year end to hike rates
BanRep policy interest rate(%)
Source: BBVA Research and Banrep data
In addition, lower interest rates in the world, credit growth around nominal GDP growth and low pressure by internal demand will allow the neutral interest rate to stand at 4.75%
In this context the Central Bank could increase its rate 25bp in the fourth quarter of 2019, with a downward bias towards remaining stable for the whole year. For 2020 we expect a new increase of 25bp, reaching 4.75%
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
Jan-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-1
5O
ct-
15
Jan-1
6A
pr-
16
Jul-1
6O
ct-
16
Jan-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-1
7O
ct-
17
Jan-1
8A
pr-
18
Jul-1
8O
ct-
18
Jan-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-1
9O
ct-
19
Jan-2
0A
pr-
20
Jul-2
0O
ct-
20
(f)
Key Messages
Global activity has continued moderating, with a particularly weak performance in exports and industrial sectors. A series of
factors have contributed to activity weakening, especially:
i) structural deceleration of the Chinese economy; ii) protectionism; iii) Uncertainty in Europe related to brexit and the
automotive sector; and iv) the cyclical moderation in the US economy. We expect global growth in 2019 and 2020 of 3.4%.
Central Banks will be more cautious in their hiking cycles in this new scenario and will help to reduce global volatility.
Internal demand, though leading growth in Colombia, will continue showing significant differences within its components.
Investment will accelerate thanks to machinery and equipment. Building construction will be limited in 2019, but will
accelerate in 2020. Civil Works will be very dynamic in 2019, but not as much in 2020 due to the political cycle of regional
governments. On the other hand, private consumption will grow in 2019 and 2020 at similar rates as observed in 2018,
given that a weak consumer confidence and the deterioration of the labor market reduce the capacity of consumption
acceleration. Finally, public expenditure will progressively decelerate.
Inflation will remain close to 3,0% in 2019 and 2020. With activity recovering slowly, controlled inflation will allow the
Central Bank to delay its interest rate hiking cycle further down in 2019, and achieve its neutral level of 4,75% in early
2020. However, BanRep will remain vigilant of the reasons behind the deterioration of the current account deficit this year,
explained more by investment than consumption, and the mid term structural fiscal adjustment needed.
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 32
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 35
Main macroeconomic variables
Tabla A1. Macroeconomicforecast
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP (% y/y) 3,0 2,1 1,4 2,7 3,0 3,3
Private consumption (% y/y) 3,1 1,6 2,1 3,5 3,4 3,6
Public consumption (% y/y) 4,9 1,8 3,8 5,9 4,1 2,9
Fixed investment (% y/y) 2,8 -2,9 1,9 1,1 2,9 4,0
Inflation (% y/y, eoy) 6,8 5,7 4,1 3,2 3,0 3,2
Inflation (% y/y, average) 5,0 7,5 4,3 3,2 3,0 3,1
Exchange rate (eoy) 3.149 3.001 2.984 3.250 3.150 3.020
Devaluation (%, eoy) 31,6 -4,7 -0,3 7,3 -1,9 -4,1
Exchange rate (average) 2.742 3.055 2.951 2.956 3.141 3.088
Devaluation (%, eoy) 37.0 11,4 -3,4 0,2 6,1 -1,6
Politcy Rate (%, eoy) 5,75 7,50 4,75 4,25 4,50 4,75
DTF rate (%, eoy) 5,2 6,9 5,3 4,5 4,7 5,
Fiscal Balance (% GPD) -3,0 -4,0 -3,6 -3,1 -2,7 -2,3
Current Account (% GDP) -6,5 -4,4 -3,3 -3,8 -4,3 -4,0
Urban Unemployment Rate (%, eoy) 9,8 9,8 9,8 10,7 10,6 10,5
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 2Q19 / 36
Main macroeconomic variables
Tabla A2. Quarterly macroeconomic forecast
GDP
(% y/y)
Inflation
(% y/y, eoy)
Exchange rate
(vs. USD, eoy)
Policy Rate
(%, eoy)
Q1 16 2,4 8,0 3.022 6,50
Q2 16 2,0 8,6 2.916 7,50
Q3 16 1,8 7,3 2.880 7,75
Q4 16 2,2 5,7 3.001 7,50
Q1 17 1,2 4,7 2.880 7,00
Q2 17 1,4 4,0 3.038 5,75
Q3 17 1,6 4,0 2.937 5,25
Q4 17 1,3 4,1 2.984 4,75
Q1 18 2,1 3,1 2.780 4,50
Q2 18 2,9 3,2 2.931 4,25
Q3 18 2,7 3,2 2.972 4,25
Q4 18 2,8 3,2 3.250 4,25
Q1 19 3,0 3,2 3.175 4,25
Q2 19 2,7 2,8 3.130 4,25
Q3 19 2,9 2,9 3.143 4,25
Q4 19 3,1 3,0 3.150 4,50
Q1 20 3,2 3,0 3.139 4,75
Q2 20 3,2 3,0 3.090 4,75
Q3 20 3,4 3,1 3.051 4,75
Q4 20 3,6 3,2 3.020 4,75
BBVA Research – Colombia Outlook 1Q19 / 37
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