A Choice Of Internet Futures: Will Nonprofits Be Stuck In The Slow Lane?

transcript

www.internetsociety.org

A Choice Of Internet Futures Will Nonprofits Be Stuck In The Slow Lane?

2015 Nonprofit Technology Conference (15NTC)

4 March 2015

Dan York, Senior Content Strategist

Administrivia

#15NTCnetadvocacyWeb: http://sched.co/2IUZNotes: http://po.st/xU00JrEval: http://po.st/OyzAfa

http://a4ai.org/

Who Are You?Why Are You Here?

90 Minutes

PermissionlessInnovation

InternetOf

Opportunity

www.internetsociety.org Image: albaum on Flickr

Spoiler Alert(I don’t have all the answers)

Symmetry

danyork.me

Podcasts

1980’s

Nonprofits

Corporations

TelecomVoIP

Training

Security

What is the Internet Society?The Internet Society (ISOC) is a cause-based organization that works with governments, industries, and others to ensure the technologies and policies that helped develop and evolve the Internet will continue into the future.

Our programs cultivate an Internet that is open to everyone, everywhere and aim to ensure that it will continue to be a tool for creativity, innovation, and economic growth.

MISSION: To promote the open development, evolution, and use of the Internet for the benefit of all people throughout the world.

How We Work To Protect Our Internet

Operating at the intersection of policy, technology, and development allows the Internet Society to be a thought leader on issues key to the Internet’s continued growth and evolution.

Technology

DevelopmentPolicy

History Founded in 1992 by Internet pioneers Vint Cerf and Bob Kahn as an international nonprofit organization.

The Internet Society is the organizational home of the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), the primary entity responsible for establishing the Internet’s open standards and best practices.

For more details, visit www.internetsociety.org/history

Global Presence

108Chapters Worldwide

71,000+Members andSupporters

133Organization Members

18Countries with ISOC Offices

92 Countries with ISOC Chapters

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

EUROPE

AFRICA

THE MIDDLE EAST

OCTOBER 2013Chapters

CaveatThese are my personal views –

They may or may not reflectInternet Society positions

Image: Christian Schnettelker (manoftaste-de) on Flickr

Past Present Futures Choices

In The Beginning…

In The Beginning…(well, maybe lets start in the

1980’s… )

BBSsAOL

OnlineServices

Defining characteristics?

• Messages only to other users• Discussions not visible outside• Some content only available on

that service (license agreements)• Only one service at a time (dial-up)• You paid $$$ for access (usually)

“walled gardens”

FracturedDisconnected

Connect

wired to interconnect

We tried

Telco standardsOSI, H.x, G.x, X.x …

UUCPharvard!mv!srbci!ldy

FidoNet

And then…

Internet Protocol

InternetThe one network to

interconnect them all

Slowly…

… until the wallscame down…

“Internet Invariants”

Global reach

General PurposeYou can do anything with it

www.internetsociety.org http://listicle.io/cluetrain/

PermissionlessInnovation

AccessibleTo connect, build, study

Basic agreements andsocial behavior

between technologies andbetween humans

Reusable buildingblocks

Not tied to technology

No permanentfavorites

(Remember AltaVista?)

Internet Invariants• Global Reach• General Purpose• Permissionless Innovation• Accessible – connect, build, study• Conventions and social behavior• Reusable tech building blocks• No permanent favorites

Distributed andDecentralized(ex. email, web)

End-to-end“E2E”

Intelligence at the edge

“Stupid” network

Connect

ConnectCommunicate

Create

ConnectCommunicate

CreateCollaborate

ConnectCommunicate

CreateCollaborate

Communities

Thought we had it all…

Declaration of the Independence of

Cyberspacehttps://projects.eff.org/~barlow/Declaration-Final.html

cluetrain.com

MessagingEmail, Jabber, IRC…

DiscussionUSENET, forums, listserv…

PublishingWeb, gopher…

ConnectCommunicate

CreateCollaborate

Communities

Unleasing thecreativity ofhumanity ona global scale

But a funny thing happened on the

way to our utopia…

Commerce

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engineof communication and collaboration

… a phenomenal

engineof commerce!

One slight problem…

Destruction of thegatekeepers

“Disintermediation”

Removal of theintermediaries

Whole new industries

Amazing opportunities

Gatekeepers of old?

The telcos are calling…

… they want their revenue back!

The governmentsare calling…

The media companiesare calling…

The movie studiosare calling…

The <insert disruptedindustry here>

are calling…

The fundamentalpoint

Shockey’s Law:

Money is the answer.What is the question?

Control

Who used to bein charge?

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(Skype, WhatsApp)

The telcos are calling…

… they want their control back!

The governmentsare calling…

The media companiesare calling…

The movie studiosare calling…

The <insert disruptedindustry here>

are calling…

Revenueand

Control

Only one slight problem…

… the new industries,and the people,

don’t want togive it back

But wait, there’s more…

Convenience

(consumerization)

Consumers

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“n00bs”

user@aol.com

Didn’t care HOW itworked

Just wanted it TO work

The Internet ismerely a tool.

A new way toget things done

Simplicity

User experience“UX”

Consumption

Easier to consume

Easier to deliver

Telephone VoIP

TV Video Streams

Radio Podcasts

Newspapers

Web sites/Feeds

CDsMP3s

/streaming

ConnectCommunicate

CreateCollaborate

Communities

CommerceControl

ConvenienceConsumerization

Consumption

Internet

Trends

“If when you say internet, you think of a computer,

then you probably don't live in an African country.”

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/02/19/africa/africa-mobile-internet/

Mobile

Mobile Internet(2015 Global Internet Report)

Next 4 Billion People?

Digital Divide?

Affordability?

Billions of things

Internet of Things(IoT)

Security / Privacy

Identity

SecuritySecuritySecurity

Surveillance

Can we trustthe Internet?

“The future is already here –it’s just not very evenly

distributed.”

- William Gibson, author

www.internetsociety.org Image: tedandjen on Flickr

Present

Accessible /Innovative

Decentralized

Closed /Fragmented

Centralized

Present

Decentralized

Closed /Fragmented

Centralized

The Internet “we used to know”

Innovation

Competition

Choice

Diversity

Interoperability

Freedom of expression

Security

Privacy

Internet Invariants• Global Reach• General Purpose• Permissionless Innovation• Accessible – connect, build, study• Conventions and social behavior• Reusable tech building blocks• No permanent favorites

“Common Pool”

“Global Citizen”

InternetOf

Opportunity

Present

Decentralized

Closed /Fragmented

Centralized

Balkanization

Fragmentation

Regional networks

Multiple “Internets”

Response to pervasive

surveillance

Response to revenue/control

Lack of interoperability

“Boutique networks”

Return of somegatekeepers

Will need to go to each regional network to

gain access

Present

Decentralized

Closed /Fragmented

Centralized

FragmentedAND

Controlled

GovernmentRegulation

(and Taxes, too)

Corporate Control

GatekeepersEverywhere

Permissionor

PaymentRequired

Censorship

Surveillance

“Safety”“Protection”

“… for the children”

Legitimate safetyissues, but canbe over-used

Islandsof

Disconnection

The scenarionone of us

Must be on guard…

… slippery slope.

Present

Decentralized

Closed /Fragmented

Centralized

A Big Quadrant(Many nuances)

“Walled Gardens”

Massively Centralized

yetStill Innovating

(for now)

Key Point:

You must ask (or pay)the gatekeepers for

permission

WHO will be thegatekeepers?

Already There

Remember AOL,CompuServe,

Prodigy?

that service (license agreements)• Only one service at a time (dial-up)• You paid $$$ for access (usually)

Facebook?Google?Twitter?Apple?

Facebook GroupsGoogle+ Communities

LinkedIn GroupsAmazon Discussions

Twitter

that service (license agreements)• Only one service at a time (dial-up)• You pay $$$ for access (usually)

In DataIn Attention

Services are “free”

You are the product

Advertising-basedmodel

Eyeballs are needed!

Eyeballs are needed!More data is

Obtaining more eyeballs

Bring the next4 billion people

online!

Facebook – Internet.orgGoogle – Project Loon,

Project Titan

Great ideas…

… but always atrade-off.

“Zero-rating”

Free mobile servicefor particular content

(ex. Facebook)

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Creates the “lens”through which

people experiencethe “Internet”

“Internet” = Facebook

www.internetsociety.org Image: dehub on Flickr

Facebook Messenger

email?

Google Docs

forconference notes

Convenience