BACK-TO-SCHOOL TRENDS & INSIGHTS: OFFICE & SCHOOL SUPPLIES · Document classification: Client/Third...

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The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: Client/Third Party Confidential

BACK-TO-SCHOOL TRENDS & INSIGHTS: OFFICE & SCHOOL SUPPLIES

Agenda

Tax Free Holidays & School Starts

Ecommerce Season & Growth

Private Label Penetration

Extension of Season

Convenience

Back-to-School Accounts for 48% of Yearly Traditional Supplies Unit Store SalesUnit Share by Quarter – Traditional Supplies

Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/52 WE January 02 2016/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom.

Organization/Tax

2nd Semester BTS

Graduation

Final Exams

Back-to-School

Season

Halloween

Holidays

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Stores

Online

23% 20% 30% 27%Unit Share

by Quarter

18% 15% 48% 19%Unit Share

by Quarter

Online

Birth Of A Season OnlineBack-to-school ecommerce spend is taking shape; a more prominent seasonal arc is forming from the first week of August and lasting through mid-September.

Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom.

Third Quarter Ecommerce Weekly Dollar Spend

201420152016

Jul 09 Jul 16 Jul 23 Jul 30 Aug 06 Aug 13 Aug 20 Aug 27 Sep 03 Sep 10 Sep 17 Sep 24 Oct 01

Back-To-School Season to Date Channel Dollar Spend

For six weeks end August 5, $1.7B has been generated in Office Supplies, down -1.3% vs PY. As season progresses clear distinction between Brick & Mortar and Ecommerce trends continue.

$0$1$2

Retail Brick & Mortar

Ecommerce

-60 -20 20

Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom/ 4WE July 22 2017

2017 Season to Date Growth ($MM)2017 BTS Season to Date

Dollar Sales ($B)

Back-To-School Season Retail Dollar Sales2014 2015 2016

Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/13WE Sep 2016/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom.

Dollars Units

Actual Units ASP

Units down in Jul and Aug; Shifting to SepConsumers spending more later

Impact of Technology & Digital Alternatives ASP up in Jul and Aug; down in Sep

Those who live in the South are significantly more likely than their counterparts to shop on tax free shopping weeks when shopping for BTS, driven by fact that majority of states in this region offer tax-free shopping.

The South Most Impacted by Tax-Free Incentives

Q. Which one of the following statements best describes you as it relates to back-to-school shopping? Source: The NPD Group/ LAB Series: Back to School May 2017

38% 40%

38%39%

21% 17%28%

Northeast (n=964) Midwest (n=1,024) South (n=1,1786) West (n=944)

% Who Purchase During Tax Free Shopping Weeks

Wait for these specific

dates to make BTS

purchases

Purchase whenever it is

most convenient

Purchase prior to the tax

free holiday

None of the above

Back-To-School Tax Free Dates Shifting & Decreasing

7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26

2014 2015 2016 2017

2017 date shifts for Alabama (earlier) and Texas (later). Ecommerce sites can comply with tax-free offerings.

-$18.1M

Impact

Early and Late School Start DMA DifferencesEarly and late school starts influence when consumers are purchasing supplies and can drive total industry sales trends.

Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom

Atlanta Phoenix New York Washington D.C.

Encased Pencil Store Sales by an Early & Late Start DMA

Early Start Late Start

2014 2015 7WE Aug 20 2016 2016

Back-To-School Season Category Dollar SpendWriting, coloring/art, and office essentials did not grow at the same level in 2016 as 2015. 2017 Season to Date office essentials driving growth, colored pencils in decline.

$0$200$400

Writing Instruments

Office Paper

Presentation & Reference

Filing & File Storage

Office Essentials

Coloring & Art

Mailing & Shipping

Dated Products

Self-Stick Notes

Envelopes

Shredders

Specialty Tape

-$40 -$20 $0 $20 $40

Millions

Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom/ 6 WE Aug 5 2017

2017 Season to Date Growth ($MM)2017 BTS Season to Date

Dollar Sales ($MM)

Less Private Label in Higher Growth Categories

-10.0%

Private Label Dollar Share Category Dollar Volume Chg vs PY

Private Label

% of Category

Category $

Volume

% Chg vs PY

Categories with the strongest growth tend to have less penetration of Private Label products.

Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom/ 6 WE Aug 5 2017

Consumers Are Seeking Convenience…

Source: The NPD Group/ LAB Pre-Season Report 2017

Back to

School Kits

Online List

Fulfillment

…but what

impulse?

Thank youThank you

Tia Frapolli

President US Office Supplies

Email: tia.frapolli@npd.com

Phone: 847-696-7271

BACK-TO-SCHOOL TRENDS & INSIGHTS: OFFICE & SCHOOL SUPPLIES · Document classification: Client/Third...

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