Breakout session 1:

GHG Mitigation Potential in the Transport Sector

Moderated by:

Michael Replogle (ITDP)

Ko Sakamoto (TRL)

Rationale and aim for this session

What is potential and cost-effectiveness of transport sector GHG emission strategies?

How can we consider marginal costs, incremental costs, co-benefits?

What are capabilities and limits of different methodologies to assess these questions?

What changes are needed to maximize transport GHG mitigation?

Session outline 13:30 - 15:30

Presentations (13:30 – 14:30)- Mitigation potential in the transport sector in USA:

Joanne Potter, Senior Associate, Cambridge Systematics

- Carbon and Transport in Latin America in 2050 - Avoiding the Worst, Shifting to the Best, Improving all the Way Along: Lee Schipper, Project Scientist, University of California Berkeley

- GHG mitigation potential in the transport sector in Mexico: Adriana Lobo, Director; Hilda Martinez, Environment Director; Jorge Macias, Environment Specialist, CTS-México

Discussion (14:30 – 15:30)

- 4 Key Questions

- Summary of discussion

Financial flows for “transport”

Financial flows for“climate mitigation”

Domestic public funding

(trillions)

Domestic public funding

(trillions)

Private funding

(trillions)

Private funding

(trillions)

GEFGEF

MitigationFund

MitigationFund

Climate Funds

Climate Funds

(millions)

ODA

(billions)

ODA

(billions)

How can we influence financial flows to maximize support for sustainable low-carbon transport?

CDMCDM

How can climate & transport finance foster change?

Transport (fuel) taxes

Value capture

Grants

Loans

Climate funds

Crediting mechanisms

User charges

Private investmentsPerformance-based funding

and contracting

Revolving Funds

From Mitigation Potential to Action

How can we best:- Improve the mitigation potential/cost effectiveness?

-Remove the technical, financial and political barriers?

-Communicate the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of action in transport?

-Curb backsliding and lock-in of unsustainable investments and policies?

GUIDING QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSIONS

1. What’s the potential for transport GHG reduction?

Reflecting on the presentations, how can we best summarize the GHG reduction potential from the transport sector for developed and developing countries?

- Should it be proportionate to other sectors?

- What share from “avoid-shift” vs. “improve” strategies?

5 minutes discussion

2. What’s needed to holistically measure and verify transport GHG mitigation?

How can current ways of accounting for transport emissions be improved?

How to better account for complex behavioural and land use impacts?

5 minutes discussion

Source: McKinsey and co. Boxes by Daniel Bongardt, GTZ

McKinsey GHG abatement cost curve

Transport

Source: Moving Cooler (2009)sponsors included US DOT/EPA, Shell, NRDC, EDF

Costs vs. Savings ofa bundle of mitigation measures in transport in the US

3. Cost effectiveness of mitigation in transport

What if anything is missing from McKinsey Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves?

How can co-benefits be better accounted for in transport GHG mitigation cost-effectiveness analysis?

How best to handle bundling of strategies and plans vs. reductionist analysis of projects and single elements?

How to communicate evidence (e.g on negative costs of mitigation actions, benefits of sustainable transport) to policy makers in a tangible manner?

20 minutes discussion

4. How can finance incentivise change?

- Which part of the financing conundrum can carbon finance support? Does this differ by country or region?

- Could new climate-sensitive transport (infrastructure) funds become part of the solution?

- Is there a role for sectoral crediting in the transport sector? How can this be designed?

- What data and analysis tools are needed to support progress? What is their role for verification?

- How can transport NAMAs be piloted, in the context of the Copenhagen Accord?

20 minutes discussion

Page 15

Thank you

Join the debate on our Google Group:

http://groups.google.co.uk/group/Financing_SLOCAT

(Registration required – Please send requests to Ko Sakamoto below)

For further information, please contact:

Michael Replogle (ITDP)Global Policy Directormreplogle@itdp.org

Ko Sakamoto (TRL)Senior Consultant – Economics and Policyksakamoto@trl.co.uk