CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY VULNERABLE, WHY NOT CAN...

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CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT

ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY VULNERABLE, WHY NOT

CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT

ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY VULNERABLE, WHY NOT

Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

QUESTION

• WHAT IS A MEGACITY AND WHAT MEASURES WILL MAKE IT LESS VULNERABLE TO THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS?

MEGACITIES IN 1900WORLD POPULATION:

1.6 BILLION

• TOKYO: 21.9 M• NEW YORK: 15.6 M• MEXICO CITY: 13.9 M• SAO PAULO: 12.5 M• SHANGHAI: 11.7

• OSAKA: 10.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 9.9 M• LOS ANGELES: 9.5 M• CALCUTA 9.0 M• BEIJING 9.0 M• SOURCE: THE

POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01

• OSAKA: 10.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 9.9 M• LOS ANGELES: 9.5 M• CALCUTA 9.0 M• BEIJING 9.0 M• SOURCE: THE

6 BILLION

• TOKYO: 25.4 M• BOMBAY: 18.6 M• MEXICO CITY: 18.3 M• SAO PAULO: 18.0 M• NEW YORK: 16.7 M

• LAGOS: 14.1 M• CALCUTA 13.2 M• LOS ANGELES: 13.2 M• SHANGHAI: 13.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 12.7 M• SOURCE: THE

10 BILLION

10 BILLION• BOMBAY: 28.5 M• TOKYO: 27.3 M• LAGOS: 26.5 M• DHAKA: 24.0 M• KARACHI: 21.7 M

• BOMBAY: 28.5 M• TOKYO: 27.3 M• LAGOS: 26.5 M• DHAKA: 24.0 M• KARACHI: 21.7 M

• SAO PAULO: 21.3 M • MEXICO CITY: 19.6 M• JAKARTA: 19.4• CALCUTA 18.8 M• NEW DEHLI: 18:R M• SOURCE: THE

WHAT HISTORY TEACHESWHAT HISTORY TEACHES

• CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC, HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT, WHICH CAN BE WITHDRAWN WITHOUT NOTICE.

MEGACITIES FACE DISASTERS FROM …

• EARTHQUAKES• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• LANDSLIDES• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• WILDFIRES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS

• EARTHQUAKES• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• LANDSLIDES• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• WILDFIRES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS

INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS

• NATURAL HAZARDS, GENERATE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS WHICH CREATE RISK TO THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT.

• THE CHOICE: LIVE WITH UNACCEPTABLE RISK OR ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF RISK.

• NATURAL HAZARDS, GENERATE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS WHICH CREATE RISK TO THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT.

• THE CHOICE: LIVE WITH UNACCEPTABLE RISK OR ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF RISK.

• UNACCEPTABLE RISK CALLS FOR PUBLIC POLICIES TO REDUCE VULNER-ABILITIES.

• VULNERABILITIES REFLECT POLICY FLAWS WITH RESPECT TO PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY

• PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY ARE THE MOST EFFECTIVE MEASURES.

• BUT, THEY ARE HARD TO SELL TO THE PUBLIC AND TAKE TIME TO IMPLEMENT.

• PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY ARE THE MOST EFFECTIVE MEASURES.

• BUT, THEY ARE HARD TO SELL TO THE PUBLIC AND TAKE TIME TO IMPLEMENT.

TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS

CAIRO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS

ISTHANBUL: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS

ISTHANBUL: CAUSES OF VULNERABILITIES

• SIZE• FRAGILITY OF

EXISTING BUIDINGS/ INFRASTRUCTURE

• INADEQUATE PROTECTION MEASURES

• CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AND PRACTICES

• SIZE• FRAGILITY OF

EXISTING BUIDINGS/ INFRASTRUCTURE

• INADEQUATE PROTECTION MEASURES

• CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AND PRACTICES

SAN FRANCISCO: DEPENDENT ON TRANSPORTATION

• DAMAGE TO ONE SPAN OF THE BAY BRIDGE CHANGED THE LIVES OF MILLIONS AND DISRUPTED MANY BUSINESSES.

• NOONE KNOWS THE TRUE COST.

• DAMAGE TO ONE SPAN OF THE BAY BRIDGE CHANGED THE LIVES OF MILLIONS AND DISRUPTED MANY BUSINESSES.

• NOONE KNOWS THE TRUE COST.

LOS ANGELES: DEPENDENT ON UTILITY SYSTEMS

• DAMAGE TO A UTILIYY CORRIDOR CAUSEED WIDESPREAD OUTAGES OF POWER, GAS, WATER, AND WASTE CENTERS.

• OUTAGES LED TO LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS.

• DAMAGE TO A UTILIYY CORRIDOR CAUSEED WIDESPREAD OUTAGES OF POWER, GAS, WATER, AND WASTE CENTERS.

• OUTAGES LED TO LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS.

SAN FRANCISCO: SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE

QUESTION

• CAN WE MAKE MEGACITIES RESILIENT TO NATURAL HAZARDS?

MEGACITYMEGACITYMEGACITYMEGACITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•NAT. HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY REDUCTONREDUCTON

•PREPAREDNESS•PRPTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY •EDUCATIONAL SURGES

DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY VULNERABLE, WHY NOT CAN...

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