Climate change challenges to health: Impacts...

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Climate change challenges to health: Impacts, vulnerability and response

Shilu TongSchool of Public Health and Social Work

Institute of Health and Biomedical InnovationQueensland University of Technology

Kelvin Grove, Qld. 4059s.tong@qut.edu.au

HKU8.4. 2016

UNPD 2014

Projected future global population(Gerland et al. 2014; UN 2016)

www.who.int. Accessed 15/3/16

Life expectancy in Asian regions(UN 2016)

Smith et al, 2013

Environmental changes pose a significant

threat to global health

• Climate change

• Marine pollution

• Urbanisation

• Ozone depletion

• Biodiversity loss

• Soil degradation

• Air pollution

Climate change could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century.

Costello et al. Lancet2009;373(9676):1693-733

McMichael 2012

‘It is extremely likely that human influence has been the

dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th

century.’ (IPCC 2013)

Causes of change

IPCC AR5 WGI Fig SPM.6

Projected changes

‘Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under

all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that

observed during 1971–2010 due to increased ocean warming and

increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.’ (IPCC 2013)

Global impacts of climate change on crop

productivity by 2050 (Wheeler & Braun 2013)

Climate change and

the GBR• Expected adverse impacts from

warming and higher CO2, leading to more acidic water

Hoegh-Guldberg et al, Science (2007)

QUT Research Program –Ecosystem Change

and Population Health

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

What does this study add?

This is the 1st study to look at

both the short- and long-term

harvesting effects in heat-related

deaths.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

This is the novel study to

examine the relationship

between climate conditions and

H7N9 transmission.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

Mortality risk attributable to high

and low ambient temperature: a

multi-country study

Antonio Gasparrini, Yuming Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Eric Lavigne,

Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Aurelio Tobias, Shilu Tong, et al

Lancet 2015;386:369-75.

Naish et al.,

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

This is a seminal study

assessing low and high

temperature-related mortality.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

EHP 2013;121:415-9.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

This is the 1st study assessing

annul net temperature-related

mortality across different cities

in Australia.

IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4

This study reported a statistically

significant decrease in the relative

risk for heat-related mortality in

2006 compared with 1993 in the

majority of countries included in

the analysis.

National Climate Change Adaptation

Research Plan: Human Health (NCCARF, accessed 6.6.2015)

The development of the Plan was led by

the following writing team:

Prof AJ McMichael (ANU) (Chair)

Dr Haylee Weaver (ANU)

Dr Helen Berry (ANU)

Dr Paul Beggs (Macquarie)

Prof Bart Currie (Menzies School of Health

Research)

Dr John Higgins (DCC)

Prof Brian Kelly (Newcastle)

Prof Jan McDonald (NCCARF)

Dr Tharman Saverimuttu (DCC)

Prof Shilu Tong (QUT)

Future challenges

To engage in this increasingly-important topic area, we will need to

generate skills and methods in:

1. Well-coordinated interdisciplinary research (including collaboration

with some unfamiliar earth-system sciences).

2. Assessing causal relationships within a systems-change context:

How do large-scale changes in ecosystems affect wellbeing, health

and longevity of whole communities and populations?

3. Scenario-based risk assessments (forecasts) of climate change:

Requires construction of models which are both sensible and

realistic.

4. Economic research relevant to climate and health

5. Formulation and evaluation of community-based adaptive (coping)

strategies.

6. Communications research54

CONCLUSIONS

• CC is, arguably, the biggest challenge to

global heath in the 21th century.

• Accruing evidence indicates an increased

CC-related disease burden.

• We must tackle this formidable, increasingly

important public health challenge.

• There is an urgent need to train more

ECRs/students in this emerging field.

• Funding is clearly needed to support the

research agenda.

Acknowledgments

1. This program is funded by NHMRC, ARC, Queensland

Departments of Environment and Resources, Community

Safety, Queensland Health, Environmental Protection

Agency & Queensland University of Technology;

2. Indebted to my collaborators, colleagues and students for

their inputs.

Source: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rotating_earth_(large).gif

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