CommuniquéPROVIDING INSIGHT FOR 90 YEARS.

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2012 Chicago Council Survey Tracks American Public Opinion on Foreign Policy in the New Millennium

Ten years after the September 11 attacks, the 2012 Chicago Council Survey finds that Americans are recalibrating their views on international engagement and searching for more effective ways to project positive U.S. influence abroad. While they see value in being a strong military power, they are well aware of economic constraints and the limits of military force to effect change.

Since 1974, the Council’s surveys have been one of the most widely known sources of Americans’ attitudes on international relations and U.S. foreign policy. Results from the 2002 Chicago Council Survey showed Americans were ready to allocate almost unlimited attention and resourc-es to countering the terrorist threat. Ten years later, Americans still want the United States to play an active part in world affairs, but they have become increasingly selective about how and where to engage in the world.

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CHICAGO COUNCIL SURVEY Report Tracks American Public Opinion on Foreign Policy in the New Millennium

IMMIGRATION TASK FORCE Website Highlights the Importance of Immigrationto the Region

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Study Group Unveils Strategies for Globalizing Chicago’s Economic Development Plans

AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT Chicago Council and PaulsonInstitute form U.S.-China Experts Group

EMERGING LEADERS Twenty-two Selected to Participate in Two-Year Program

KOLDYKE FELLOW Turkish EducationReformer Honored

FALL 2012

“Americans have been sobered by the last decade of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, and they do not sense that our national security has improved from those military actions,” said Dina Smeltz, senior fellow on public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council. “They want to scale back spending, avoid major new military entanglements, and prefer working through alliances and partners rather than unilateral action from the United States. In addition, they want to exhaust nonmilitary means such as dip-lomatic pressure and sanctions before re-sorting to force.”

Released in September at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C., “Foreign Policy in the New Millennium,” has been one of the Council’s most thoroughly covered survey reports in over a decade. The survey has been cited more than 75 times by leading U.S. and international media outlets, in-cluding The Atlantic, AFP, Chicago Tribune, ForeignPolicy.com, Ha’aretz, Korea Times, National Public Radio, and The New York Times, among many others.

In addition to the comprehensive survey report, the Council published nine policy briefs that also have received significant media attention. Topics covered by short re-ports include the war in Afghanistan, op-tions for dealing with Syria, America’s shifting focus to Asia, the U.S.-Japan alliance, U.S. relations with the Republic of Korea, immigration, energy and climate change.

“The Chicago Council Survey of publicopinion and American foreign policy is essential reading for any practitioner of American foreign policy,” said former U.S. Representative Lee H. Hamilton, director of the Center on Congress at Indiana University.

“Without it, we do not know how the Amer-ican people view the U.S. role in the world. With it, we can better judge which policies will work and which will not.”

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Key findings of the 2012 Chicago Council Survey include:

FurtherdesiretoselectivelyengageThe public ultimately has not viewed the Iraq and Afghanistan wars as successful, seeing neither security benefits nor an increase in democracy in the greater Middle East as a result of U.S. efforts. Now, with a strong sense that the wars have overstretched our military and strained our economic resources, they prefer to avoid the use of military force if at all possible. Americans are more likely to endorse spending cutbacks, including on defense. If force is necessary, there is a preference for multilateral rather than unilateral approaches.

LessactivistapproachmostpronouncedamongMillennialsMillennials (those age 18 to 29) are at the front edge of these evolving American attitudes toward certain key aspects of foreign policy, perhaps foreshadowing trends that will continue into the future. They are much less alarmed about major threats facing the country, particularly international terrorism, Islamic funda-mentalism, and the development of China as a world power. They are also less supportive of an activist approach to foreign affairs than older Americans.

MiddleEastasourceofthreatThe lessons of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are shaping views of involvement in the Middle East, a region seen as the greatest source of threats in the future. Americans do not prefer to disengage completely from this region. They continue to support military action to combat terrorism, secure the oil supply, and respond to genocide or humanitarian crises (as in Libya). Fewer now favor having long-term military bases in the region, however, and support for economic aid also has dropped.

When it comes to Iran, far more Americans endorse diplomatic rather than military solutions to deal with the nuclear threat. Americans are unsure whether the political changes resulting from the Arab Spring will be good or bad for the United States. Majorities support continued economic and military aid to Israel, as Americans try to balance their foreign policy approaches among conflicting forces in the region.

AsiabecomingmoreimportantWhile Americans are not taking their eyes off the ball in the Middle East, they clearly see Asia as a region of great and growing importance to the United States. Overall, Americans see Asia as important because of its economic dynamism rather than as a threat. However, they also recognize that over the longer term, Asia’s, and especially China’s, rise could be a negative develop-ment for the United States.

The American relationships with Japan and South Korea are still viewed as the linchpin of foreign policy in Asia, especially with North Korea’s nuclear capability seen as the greatest threat in this region. But there is a growing trend toward developing relations with China even at the expense of these allies.

PoliticalpolarizationoverstatedWhile media attention has focused on growing political polariza-tion in American society, this appears to be exaggerated. Chicago

Council Survey trends reveal that Republicans and Democrats rarely disagree on key foreign policy issues, though they differ in emphasis. Their sharpest differences are on immigration issues and Middle East policy. Over time, Independents have become less inclined to support an active U.S. role in world affairs at a steeper rate than partisans, and they are less likely to consider strong U.S. leadership in world affairs desirable.

Reorientationinthenewmillennium

The United States—and the world—have changed over the past ten years, and Americans believe that the way in which the United States engages with the world should adjust accordingly. New forces also are having an impact on American foreign policy preferences, including the Millennials and Independents. Yet there is great con-sistency over the past decade in American support for cooperating with allies, participating in international treaties, and intervening militarily against genocide and humanitarian crises. In this regard, Americans remain true to their underlying values and aspirations for the United States to play a positive international role.

More than 1,800 Americans were surveyed for the 2012 Chicago Council Survey, which was made possible by generous support from the Korea Foundation, the John D. & Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Robert R. McCormick Foundation, and the United States-Japan Foundation.

To download the full report and watch a webcast of the release event, visit thechicagocouncil.org/publicopinion.

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IMPORTANCE OF ASIA VS. EUROPE Percentage who view the content of Asia or Europe as more important to the United States.

STAYING OUT OF WORLD AFFAIRS BY AGE Percentage who think it will be best for the future of the country if theUnited States stays out of world affairs.

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Website Promotes Public Understanding of Immigration and its Importance to the Midwest Region

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs recently launched the official website of its Task Force on Immigration and U.S. Economic Competitiveness. The site, MidwestImmigration.org, seeks to inform Midwestern leadership and enhance public understanding of immigration and its importance to the region’s economic future. The goal of the task force is to forge consensus around and build support for sensible immigration policy at the state and national levels. The website serves as an educational tool as well as a platform for advancing the work of the task force. Recent immigration-related news articles, summaries of major issues surrounding the debate, expert commentaries, and suggested readings and reports are all available on MidwestImmigration.org. The site also provides state-by-state immigration information for the 12-state Midwest, including demographics, legislative histories, and labor force data. MidwestImmigration.org also features videos and summaries of the task force’s seven regional forums that took place in fall of 2012 in Chicago, Des Moines, Detroit, Fargo, Minneapolis, St. Louis, and West Lafayette. Approximately 300 leaders attended the forums to discuss the impact of immigration in their communities. Many stressed the urgency of bipartisan action, reporting that immigrants are already helping to reverse population decline, filling needs for high-skill workers in local economies, and alleviating agricultural labor shortages, although not yet in sufficient numbers due to inefficient immigration policies.

Midwestern business, political, and civic leaders and organiza-tions who support the policy directions recommended by the task force can sign on to the task force’s “Group of 500” through the website. Spotlight stories on the individuals and communities at the forefront of integrating immigrants in the Midwest and the final task force report will also be available on the site. The final task force report will be released at an immigration summit in Washington D.C. in early 2013.

“Immigration is a pillar of the region’s economy and the Midwest needs a solution to reform,” said Rachel Bronson, vice president of studies at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “This website is a critical vehicle for uniting those who support this vision and for raising awareness among those unfamiliar with the urgency of this issue.”

The website is the outcome of the work of The Chicago Council’s bipartisan Task Force on Immigration and U.S. Economic Competitiveness, convened in December 2011. Fifty-three business and civic leaders from across the Midwest have come together to develop a report that analyzes the role immigration plays in the Midwest’s future economic competitiveness. Tamar Jacoby, president and CEO of ImmigrationWorksUSA, has worked closely with Bronson to help guide the project and serves as lead writer of the final report. Information about task force co-chairs and members can be found on MidwestImmigration.org.

This project builds on previous Chicago Council work on immigration issues, including the Heartland Paper “Mexican Immigration in the Midwest: Meanings and Implications” (2009); Strengthening America: The Civic and Political Integration of Muslim Americans (2007); A Shared Future: The Economic Engagement of Greater Chicago and its Mexican Community (2006); and Keeping the Promise: Immigration Proposals from the Heartland (2004).

Generous funding for this project has been provided by the Searle Funds at The Chicago Community Trust, Exelon Foundation, the Lumina Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Robert R. McCormick Foundation, and Chicago Council Board member and task force cochair Clare Muñana.

TASK FORCE COCHAI RS:

CHET CULVER, former Governor, Iowa

RICHARD M. DALEY, former Mayor, Chicago

JOE LOUGHREY, former President and CEO, Cummins, Inc.

DORIS MEISSNER, Senior Fellow, Migration Policy Institute, and

Former Comissioner, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service

CLARE MUNANA, President, Ancora Associates Inc.

M. MICHAEL ROUNDS, Former Governor, South Dakota

JOHN W. ROWE, Chairman Emeritus, Exelon Corporation

SAMUEK C. SCOTT III, retired Chairman, President, and CEO, Corn

Products International, Inc. and Chairman, Chicago Sister Cities

International Program

CAROLE SEGAL, cofounder, Crate and Barrel

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In September, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs unveiled a plan for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to support long-term economic growth for the Chi-cagoland area. The detailed report, Foreign Direct Investment: Globalizing Chicago’s Economic Development Plans, highlights Chicago’s strengths and competitive ad-vantages, analyzes the strategies of leading global cities, and offers specific, actionable recommendations that the region can take to improve its performance in increasing investment from foreign companies.

Michael H. Moskow, former head of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank and vice chair and senior fellow on the global econo-my at The Chicago Council, and William A. Osborn, former CEO and chairman of Northern Trust Corporation, cochaired the study group of 18 prominent local business and civic leaders convened by the Council to examine the opportunities and put forth recommendations. “Foreign direct investment can be an important element in Chicago’s economic development efforts, and the study group believes that the region has the potential to become a North American hub for foreign investment,” says Moskow. “Chicago has a number of strengths, including more than 1,500 foreign-owned companies that currently employ approximately 200,000 people in the region, and our report seeks to build on this foundation.”“We looked at what a number of global

cities have done to implement FDI strate-gies and increase their economic growth,” added Osborn. “Given the global nature of commerce today, Chicago can no longer afford to lag behind its peers in attracting FDI.”

The report concludes that a successful FDI initiative requires:

Strategy

The most successful cities do not cast a wide net but identify companies in industries that play to their strengths. The Chicago region can make progress by pursuing foreign-owned companies with established U.S. operations and focusing on high-potential targets, such as China.

Leadership

Elected officials and government agencies across the seven-county region, must better coordinate efforts and resources toward a common goal.

Capacity

The global cities that have been most successful at attracting FDI have designated a lead investment promotion agency. The study group recommends designating World Business Chicago as the one-stop shop for foreign investment and augmenting its scope and capabilities to coordinate FDI activities and help develop and imple-ment a focused strategy.

“The strategies in The Chicago Council’s

report dovetail with World Business Chicago’s current economic development efforts,” noted Michael Sacks, vice chairman of World Business Chicago. “We will con-tinue to create a welcoming business environment for foreign direct investment and work to bring more international companies to the Chicago region.”

Scott Leff, founder of Leff Communi-cations, served as the project director and lead writer of the report. Leff’s experience as the managing editor of The McKinsey Quarterly and as the director of publi-cations for the Chicago 2016 Olympic bid, contributed greatly to the project. McKinsey & Company and Virginia Simmons, leader of their Chicago office, also provided research support and fact-based analysis for the report.

Moskow, Osborn, Sacks, and John E. Greuling, president and CEO of the Will County Center for Economic Develop-ment, discussed the plan at a Chicago Council public program attended by more than 325 on September 10. Frank H. Beal, executive director of Metropolis Strategies, moderated the conversation. Moskow and Osborn also authored an op-ed “A Global Chicago,” which ran in the Chicago Tribune in August.

To download the full report, read the op-ed, and watch video of the release event, visit thechicagocouncil.org/FDI.

Plan to Attract More Foreign Investment to the Region Unveiled

From left: Steven Koch, deputy mayor of the City of Chicago, and study group cochairs Michael Moskow and William Osborn at the report release event on September 10.

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U.S.-China Agricultural Investment Experts Group Formed

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and The Paulson Institute have jointly convened the U.S.-China Agricultural Investment Experts Group. The group held its inaugural meeting in Chicago on October 15.

Members are practitioners and thought leaders from industry, the capital markets, business schools, research laboratories, land grant universities, state governments, industry councils, and agribusiness consultancies. The group will meet periodically in Chicago to discuss opportunities and constraints in U.S.-China agriculture-related cross-investment, examine successes and failures, and explore potential investment models. Members will also provide peer review on studies and reports.

“The United States and China are missing opportunities to benefit from one another’s strengths,” said former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry M. Paulson, Jr., chairman of The Paulson Institute, who is a member of the group. “We need a level playing field and stronger market access in China for U.S. firms, to remove significant tariff and nontariff barriers, and to overcome obstacles to American investment. But we also need more in-vestment from China to help create and sustain American jobs.”

Paulson added, “China leads the world in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities but earns low returns on those holdings. So it would be to the benefit of both countries if China also put some of those dollars to work in higher-return investments that create jobs in the United States.”

Changing supply and demand patterns are pulling the U.S. and Chinese agribusiness sectors together. The United States offers large-scale, consolidated, and efficient agricultural pro-duction, and cost and supply comparative advantages. China’s vast population is becoming a consumption engine for food-stuffs. Demand for higher quality, more quantity, and greater diversity in agricultural products is rising rapidly in China.

Statistics show this trend clearly. In FY2011, China became the top market for U.S. agricultural goods, purchasing some $20 billion in U.S. agricultural exports and yielding a substantial U.S. bilateral trade surplus in this sector. U.S. government statistics claim that the value of U.S. farm exports to China supported more than 160,000 American jobs in 2011, on and off the farm across a variety of sectors.

“U.S.-China agribusiness trade is booming but investment has lagged,” noted Marshall M. Bouton, president of The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, who is a member of the group. “With Chinese consumption growing, this is an especially opportune time to explore opportunities across the value chain.” The Paulson Institute, an independent center located at The University of Chicago, is a nonpartisan institution that promotes sustainable economic growth and a cleaner environment around the world. Established in 2011, the institute’s initial focus is the United States and China the world’s largest economies, energy consumers, and carbon emitters. Learn more at paulsoninstitute.org.

The U.S.-China Agricultural Investment Experts Group held its inaugural meeting in Chicago on October 15.

Andrew Sheng, president of Fung Global Institute, delivered The Chicago Council’s Aon Lecture on Asian Economies on October 25. The lecture was established, with generous support from Aon, to promote an understanding of Asian economies in international financial markets and to provide a public forum for Chicagoans to hear directly from high-level Asian economic experts. Sheng discussed the future of Asian finance in the context of the global economic rebalancing and the many challenges facing global financial stability, including the European debt crisis, questions regarding climate change, and tensions in the East. He argued that Asian thought leaders should aim toward an economic and financial framework that delivers the universal objectives of efficiency, stability, and social equity.

Despite the many challenges, Sheng outlined “two visions of hope,” including the rise of emerging markets in Asia and his view that the United States has passed the worst and is in the process of addressing the long-term issues of investing for the future.

He concluded by saying that the emergence of Asia is only one of several waves of demographic impact on a globalized world. According to Sheng, “these should not be seen as threats but opportunities to engage, to dialogue, and to shape towards a more prosperous, peaceful, just, and environmentally sustainable world.”

Learn more and download and transcript and audio of Sheng’s remarks at thechicagocouncil.org/Sheng.

Aon Lecture on Asian Economics Features Andrew Sheng

Andrew Sheng, president of Fung Global Institute, delivered The Chicago Council’s Aon Lecture on Asian Economies on October 25.

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The Chicago Council on Global Affairs has identified 22 emerging leaders who will help Chicago compete and thrive in the global era. The fifth class of The Chicago Council’s Emerging Leaders Program includes leaders from Boeing, Free Spirit Media, Google, Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, United Airlines, the U.S. Attorney’s Office, and Women’s Global Education Project, among others.

Chicago is one of the world’s top cities because its thoughtful lead-ers understood how to transform it from an industrial powerhouse to an agile modern city deeply integrated in the global economy. A new generation is now rising to leadership in the city, and individuals selected to participate in The Chicago Council’s Emerging Leaders Program are drawn from the best and the brightest in the Chica-goland area.

The Emerging Leaders class of 2014 will spend the first year of the two-year program examining key global issues that affect the world and Chicago’s global future. They will hear from experts on issues such as the global economy, foreign policy, energy, and the environment. In the second year, they will work with Chicago Council staff to define, develop, and produce a report on a pressing global challenge. Representatives of the group will present their recommendations at a public program at the end of the second year.

The most recent Emerging Leaders report, from the class of 2012, calls for the establishment of a venture philanthropy fund to increase the global competitiveness of Chicago’s students. Previous Emerging Leaders reports cover topics such as the immi-gration debate and Chicago’s experience and the privatization of infrastructure.

For their final project, Emerging Leaders in the class of 2013 are focused on the topic of urban food security. The group of 19 met with 10 leaders from the U.S. government and think tanks in Washington D.C. on October 4 and 5. They discussed possible

EMERGI NG LEADERS CL ASS OF 2014

KAMRAN BAJWA, Corporate Partner, Kirkland & Ellis

AILEEN FURLONG CAFFREY, Managing Director of Mileage Plus,

United Airlines

LINCOLN S. ELLIS, Managing Partner, Poplar Jackson LP;

Chief Investment Officer, Strategic Financial Group;

Managing Director, Linn Group

ANTHONY P. GARCIA, Assistant U.S. Attorney, U.S. Attorney’s

Office for the Northern District of Illinois

JAMIE N. JONES, Director of Social Entrepreneurship, and Clinical

Assistant Professor of Entrepreneurial Practice, Kellogg School of

Management at Northwestern University

SETH KRAVITZ, Cofounder, Technori and Bow Truss

LIAM KREHBIEL, Founder and CEO, A Better Chicago

NATHAN LAURELL, Founder, New Frontier Holdings

EMILIA LOPEZ, Principal, The Boston Consulting Group

AMY MAGLIO, Founder and Executive Director,

Women’s Global Education Project

JEFF MCCARTER, Founder and Executive Director, Free Spirit Media

JOSH MILBERG, Regional Vice President for Midwest Operations,

Willdan Energy Solutions

CARALYNN NOWINSKI, Associate Vice President for Innovation and

Economic Development, University of Illinois

REBECCA RIEBE, Director of Global Business Initiatives,

Global Midwest Alliance

JUSTIN ROSE, Principal, The Boston Consulting Group

NIRAV SHAH, Associate, Sidley Austin, LLP

JACOB SITATI, Managing Principal, Maurice and Fischer

TED SOUDER, Head of Industry, Retail, Google

YVES THILL, Principal, A.T. Kearney

COURTNEY A. THOMPSON, Director of Public Affairs,

The Boeing Company

JENNIFER THOMPSON, Senior Vice President, Edelman

MARK R. WILLIAMS, Senior Vice President and Head of LawyerLink

Division, Axiom Global, Inc.

Twenty-two Selected to Participate in Two-Year Emerging Leaders Program

At a fall retreat for the class of 2014, teams of Emerging Leaders participated in debates on several current foreign policy topics.

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs awarded the 2012 Patricia Blunt Koldyke Fellowship in Social Entrepreneurship to Batuhan Aydagül for his efforts to reform education policies and advocate for students’ rights in Turkey. Aydagül is the coordinator and a board member of the Education Reform Initiative (ERI), and a member of the advisory board at the Mother Child Education Foundation in Istanbul, Turkey.

Aydagül visited Chicago from November 5 to 9. He met with civic, media, business, and academic leaders to exchange ideas about education policy and teacher training. He delivered The Chicago Council’s Sixth Annual Patricia Blunt Koldyke Lecture on November 7, and spoke to Chicago Council Emerging Leaders and Young Professionals at a dinner on November 8.

Aydagül is a fourth generation education professional. After studying business and working as a trader, he quickly discovered that education was “in his blood” and pursued a master’s degree in international education administration and policy analysis from Stanford University. While at Stanford, Aydagül analyzed the 1997 Compulsory Education Law in Turkey, tracing how the tensions between seculars and Islamists and the role of the global “Edu-cation for All” movement interact to shape education policy.

Aydagül works as the lead policy analyst and shapes education programs at ERI. Launched in 2003 within Sabancı University, ERI aims to ensure all children have access to quality education and that education policy processes are participatory, innovative,

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From left, top: Rachel Bronson, Lincoln Ellis, Jamie Jones, Nirav Shah, Jennifer Thompson, Jacob Sitati, Liam Krehbiel, Courtney Thompson, Kamran Bajwa, Nathan Laurell, Aileen Furlong Caffrey, Jeff McCarter, Yves Thill, Molly O’Donnell; from left, bottom: Mark Williams, Amy Maglio, Caralynn Nowinski, Justin Rose, Seth Kravitz, Emilia Lopez, Anthony Garcia, Ted Souder

Turkish Education Reformer Honored as 2012 Koldyke Fellow

upcoming challenges and policy issues associated with ever-expanding urban centers around the world and the need to feed a potential global population of 9 billion people in 2050.

Each year, an independent selection committee identifies a new class of leaders from a competitive pool of nominated candidates to participate in the Emerging Leaders Program. Cochaired

rational, and transparent. Currently supported by 19 Turkish institutions, ERI tackles three challenges of significant importance to Turkish education: increasing quality in education, reducing disparities among schools, and fulfilling students’ rights in education.

Today, Aydagül is widely recognized as a pioneer and public voice for education policy in Turkey. He has played a key role in the emergence and development of Turkey’s Annual Best Practices Conferences, which have reached more than 15,000

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by Chicago Council vice chairs John F. Manley and Shirley Welsh Ryan, the program was established in 2008. Support for the program is generously provided by the Robert R. McCormick Foundation and Patrick and Shirley Welsh Ryan. Learn more about the Emerging Leaders program and the class of 2014 at thechicagocouncil.org/EmergingLeaders.

Batuhan Aydagül, the 2012 Koldyke Fellow, is the coordinator and a board member of the Education Reform Initiative in Istanbul, Turkey.

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teachers in nine annual conferences and 31 provincial workshops around Turkey. Between 2007 and 2008, Aydagül was seconded to the Ministry of Education in Liberia to support educationreform there, becoming one of the first Turks to undertake such a responsibility in development.

As the 2012 Patricia Blunt Koldyke Fellow, Aydagül gained perspectives on Chicago’s best practices that will enable him to effect meaningful and sustained change in Turkish society. He also enjoyed opportunities to discuss Turkish education and society with Chicagoans.

The Patricia Blunt Koldyke Fellowship is funded by the Koldyke family to recognize a social entrepreneur between the ages of 30 and 45 who is working to transform his or her society through innovative solutions to pressing educational problems and inadequacies. For 2012, the selection committee focused on social entrepreneurship in primary and secondary education in Turkey. Aydagül was selected from an extremely competitive applicant pool.

To learn more about Chicago Council fellowships, visit thechicagocouncil.org/fellowships.

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Mike and Patricia Koldyke with Batuhan Aydagül, who delivered the sixth annual Patricia Blunt Koldyke Lecture on November 7.