Contributions of

different sectors to

reaching the 2°C

(and 1.5°C) target

Insights from IPCC AR5 and beyond

Volker Krey

Trondheim, 6 March 2017

International Policy: Paris Agreement

Source: Rogelj et al., Nature, 2016

2011-2100 budgets

• Likely (66%) chance

of 2°C

~1000 GtCO2

• 1.5°C

~550 GtCO2

• Current

~40 GtCO2/yr

Source: IPCC AR5 SYR

1. Decarbonize Energy Supply

2. Reduce Energy Demand

3. Switch to Low-Carbon Fuels

A Generic Mitigation Strategy

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Emission reduction requires decarbonisation of energy

system and more energy efficiency.Reduction of energy demand

Incre

ase in

low

-carb

on

en

erg

y s

ou

rce

s

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure 6.18

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Sectoral emissions in baseline scenarios

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7, TS.15

Sectoral development: EU vs. IndiaEU India

20

30

2050

21

00

Sectoral development: EU vs. IndiaEU India

20

30

2050

21

00

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Sectoral emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios

(with and without CCS or negative emissions)

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Sectoral emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios

(with and without CCS or negative emissions)

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Sectoral emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios

(with and without CCS or negative emissions)

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Sectoral emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios

(with and without CCS or negative emissions)

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7

Sectoral mitigation: EU vs. India

Relative difference between scenarios

that hold warming to below 2°C during entire 21st century

and that return warming to below 1.5°C by 2100

Source: Rogelj et al. (2015) NCC

What do 1.5°C scenarios look like? Like-with-like comparison

Thank you!

Volker Krey

krey@iiasa.ac.at