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Contributions of different sectors to reaching the 2°C (and 1.5°C) target Insights from IPCC AR5 and beyond Volker Krey Trondheim, 6 March 2017
Contributions of
different sectors to
reaching the 2°C
(and 1.5°C) target
Insights from IPCC AR5 and beyond
Volker Krey
Trondheim, 6 March 2017
International Policy: Paris Agreement
Source: Rogelj et al., Nature, 2016
2011-2100 budgets
• Likely (66%) chance
of 2°C
~1000 GtCO2
• 1.5°C
~550 GtCO2
• Current
~40 GtCO2/yr
Source: IPCC AR5 SYR
1. Decarbonize Energy Supply
2. Reduce Energy Demand
3. Switch to Low-Carbon Fuels
A Generic Mitigation Strategy
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Emission reduction requires decarbonisation of energy
system and more energy efficiency.Reduction of energy demand
Incre
ase in
low
-carb
on
en
erg
y s
ou
rce
s
Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure 6.18
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Sectoral emissions in baseline scenarios
Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7, TS.15
Sectoral development: EU vs. IndiaEU India
20
30
2050
21
00
Sectoral development: EU vs. IndiaEU India
20
30
2050
21
00
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Sectoral emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios
(with and without CCS or negative emissions)
Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Sectoral emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios
(with and without CCS or negative emissions)
Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Sectoral emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios
(with and without CCS or negative emissions)
Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Sectoral emissions in 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios
(with and without CCS or negative emissions)
Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.7
Sectoral mitigation: EU vs. India
Relative difference between scenarios
that hold warming to below 2°C during entire 21st century
and that return warming to below 1.5°C by 2100
Source: Rogelj et al. (2015) NCC
What do 1.5°C scenarios look like? Like-with-like comparison
