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CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Enhancing investment decisions
Somany Ceramics Ltd
Q2FY14 Results First Cut
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CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix
The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process – Analysis
of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a
five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-
point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
CRISIL
Fundamental Grade Assessment
CRISIL
Valuation Grade Assessment
5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)
4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)
3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)
2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)
1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
About CRISIL Limited
CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India’s leading ratings agency.
We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world’s largest banks and leading corporations.
About CRISIL Research
CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian
economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry
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We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity
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Last updated: May, 2013
Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias
the grading recommendation of the company.
Disclaimer:
This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd.
(CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to
change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report
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report is for the personal information only of the authorised recipient in India only. This report should not be reproduced or redistributed or
communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any
purpose.
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Somany Ceramics LtdQ2FY14 results first cut: Margins below expectations
Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)
Valuation Grade 4/5 (CMP has upside)
Industry Building Products
The above grades are outstanding ones and are currently under review
1
October 24, 2013
Fair Value ₹109
CMP ₹90
For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in
CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.
Somany Ceramics Ltd’s (Somany’s) Q2FY14 standalone revenues were in line but margins
and earnings were below CRISIL Research’s expectations. Highlights of the results are
mentioned below; this will be followed by a detailed quarterly update. Our outstanding
fundamental grade is 4/5 and the fair value is ₹109 per share. We may revise our
assessment post discussion with the management.
■ Revenues grew by 18.5% y-o-y and 18.1% q-o-q to ₹3,056 mn driven by growth in
volumes and realisations.
■ EBITDA margin declined by 187 bps y-o-y and 64 bps q-o-q to 6.4%. Margin decline is
mainly on account of higher power and fuel costs, which increased 42.4% y-o-y and
24.9% q-o-q due to rupee depreciation and increase in gas prices.
■
PBT margin declined 142 bps y-o-y and 32 bps q-o-q to 3.1%, in line with the decline inEBITDA margin.
■ Owing to decline in margins, PAT declined 22.1% y-o-y to ₹63 mn in Q2FY14. EPS for
Q2FY14 is ₹1.8 vs ₹2.3 in Q2FY13.
■ As of September 2013, Somany has working capital cycle of 35 days - in line with our
expectations. It has gearing of 1.0x as of Q2FY14.
Valuations: Current market price has upside
Our discounted cash flow-based outstanding fair value estimate for Somany is ₹109 per
share. The fair value implies P/E multiples of 10.1x FY14 and 8.0x FY15 EPS estimates. At
the current market price of ₹90, the valuation grade is 4/5.
KEY FORECAST
(₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Operating income 7,171 8,779 10,538 12,881 14,790
EBITDA 680 747 871 966 1,131
Adj Net income 229 252 323 370 466
Adj EPS (₹) 6.6 7.3 9.4 10.7 13.5
EPS growth (%) 17.1 9.9 28.3 14.5 25.9
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.6
RoCE (%) 19.5 19.6 21.9 21.7 22.6
RoE (%) 24.6 21.9 23.2 21.9 22.6
PE (x) 13.5 12.3 9.6 8.4 6.7
P/BV (x) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 6.2 5.2 4.9 4.3
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates
CFV MATRIX
KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 6164/20725
NSE/BSE tickerSOMANYCERA/
SOMANY
Face value (₹ per share) 2
Shares outstanding (mn) 34.5
Market cap (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 3,105/51
Enterprise value (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 4,554/74
52-week range (₹)/(H/L) 115/59
Beta 0.8
Free float (%) 36.7% Avg daily volumes (30-days) 10,570
Avg daily value (30-days) (₹ mn) 0.9
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET
Returns
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
Somany 17% 18% 27% 0%
NIFTY 5% 3% 6% 8%
ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) mohit.modi@crisil.com
Ravi Dodhia ravi.dodhia@crisil.com
Bhaskar Bukrediwala bhaskar.bukrediwala@crisil.com
Client servicing desk+91 22 3342 3561 clientservicing@crisil.com
1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
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5
Valuation Grade
F u n d a m e n t a l G r a d e
Poor
Fundamentals
ExcellentFundamentals
S t r o n
g
D o w n s
i d e
S t r o n g
U p s i d
e
63.3% 63.3% 63.3% 63.3%
0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%
34.8% 34.6% 34.5% 34.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
Promoter FII DII Others
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CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
2
Q2FY14 Results Summary (Standalone)
(₹ mn) Q2FY14 Q1FY14 Q2FY13 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY14 H1FY13 y-o-y (%)
Net sales 3,056 2,588 2,578 18.1 18.5 5,643 4,481 25.9Raw materials cost 1,893 1,594 1,603 18.8 18.1 3,487 2,588 34.7
Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 62% 62% 62% 38bps -22bps 62% 58% 402bps
Power & fuel 432 346 303 24.9 42.4 777 625 24.4
Employees cost 208 200 182 3.7 13.9 408 360 13.1
Other expenses 329 268 277 22.9 18.5 596 518 15.1
EBITDA 194 181 212 7.3 (8.4) 375 389 (3.6)
EBITDA margin 6.4% 7.0% 8.2% -64bps -187bps 6.7% 8.7% -204bps
Depreciation 55 53 50 3.8 9.2 107 99 8.5
EBIT 139.7 128.4 162.1 8.8 (13.8) 268.1 290.4 (7.7)
Interest and finance charges 48 45 49 6.5 (2.7) 93 100 (7.8)
Operating PBT 92 84 113 10.0 (18.7) 175.6 190 (7.6)
Other income 2.6 4.8 3.2 (45.8) (18.8) 7.4 5 48.0
PBT 95 88 116 7.0 (18.7) 183 195 (6.2)
Tax 32 30 36 6.3 (11.1) 62 62 0.2
PAT 63 58 80 7.4 (22.1) 121 133 (9.2)
Adj PAT 63 58 80 7.4 (22.1) 121 133 (9.2)
Adj PAT margin 2.0% 2.2% 3.1% -20bps -107bps 2.1% 3.0% -83bps
No. of equity shares (mn) 34.5 34.5 34.5 - - 34.5 34.5 -
Adj EPS (₹) 1.8 1.7 2.3 7.4 (22.1) 3.5 3.9 (9.2)
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
EBITDA margin under pressure due to high fuel costs... ... which led to decline in PAT
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
2,175 2,763 1,904 2,578 2,672 3,349 2,588 3,056
8.0% 8.4%
9.3%
8.2% 8.3%7.3%
7.0% 6.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
D e c - 1 1
M a r - 1 2
J u n - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
M a r - 1 3
J u n - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
(₹ mn)
Revenue EBITDA margin (RHS)
47 86 53 80 82 101 58 63
2.2%
3.1%
2.8%
3.1% 3.1% 3.0%
2.2%2.0%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
D e c - 1 1
M a r - 1 2
J u n - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
M a r - 1 3
J u n - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
(₹ mn)
PAT PAT margin (RHS)
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Somany Ceramics Ltd
3
Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation
-Indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
J a n - 0 8
A p r - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
N o v - 0 8
F e b - 0 9
J u n - 0 9
S e p - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
A u g - 1 0
N o v - 1 0
M a r - 1 1
J u n - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
M a y - 1 2
A u g - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
M a r - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
Somany NIFTY
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
D e c - 1 0
F e b - 1 1
M a y - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
S e p - 1 1
D e c - 1 1
F e b - 1 2
M a y - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
F e b - 1 3
M a y - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
('000)(₹)
Total Traded Quanti ty(RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Somany
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CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
4
Annexure: Financials
*Standalone financials
Source: CRISIL Research
Income statement Balance Sheet
(₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 (₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13Operating income 7,171 8,779 10,538 Liabilities
EBITDA 680 747 871 Equity share capital 69 69 69
EBITDA margin 9.5% 8.5% 8.3% Reserves 970 1,190 1,461
Depreciation 175 183 205 Minorities - - -
EBIT 505 563 666 Net worth 1,039 1,259 1,530
Interest 171 207 200 Convertible debt - - -
Operating PBT 334 357 466 Other debt 1,785 1,666 1,624
Other income 0 6 9 Total debt 1,785 1,666 1,624
Exceptional inc/(exp) 9 (1) (3) Deferred tax liability (net) 257 254 262
PBT 344 362 472 Total liabilities 3,081 3,178 3,416
Tax provision 105 111 152 Assets
Share of prof it f rom ass ociates - - - Net f ixed assets 1,730 1,904 1,991
PAT (Reported) 239 251 320 Capital WIP 51 45 102
Less: Exceptionals 9 (1) (3) Total fixed assets 1,780 1,948 2,093
Adjusted PAT 229 252 323 Investments 63 117 165
Current assets
Ratios Inventory 988 1,006 1,205
FY11 FY12 FY13 Sundry debtors 1,293 1,400 1,747
Growth Loans and advances 580 658 811
Operating income (%) 32.4 22.4 20.0 Cash & bank balance 99 151 175
EBITDA (%) 16.8 9.9 16.6 Marketable securities 6 6 7
Adj PAT (%) 17.1 9.9 28.3 Total current assets 2,967 3,221 3,945
Adj EPS (%) 17.1 9.9 28.3 Total current liabilities 1,737 2,115 2,795
Net current assets 1,231 1,105 1,150
Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 7 8 8
EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 8.5 8.3 Total assets 3,081 3,178 3,416
Adj PAT Margin (%) 3.2 2.9 3.1
RoE (%) 24.6 21.9 23.2 Cash flowRoCE (%) 19.5 19.6 21.9 (₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13
RoIC (%) 16.5 17.5 19.5 Pre-tax profit 334 363 475
Total tax paid (80) (114) (144)
Valuations Depreciation 175 183 205
Price-earnings (x) 13.5 12.3 9.6 Working capital changes (249) 177 (20)
Price-book (x) 3.0 2.5 2.0 Net cash from operations 180 609 516
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 6.2 5.2 Cash from investm ents
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.5 0.4 Capital expenditure (415) (352) (350)
Dividend payout ratio (%) 10.1 11.0 12.9 Investments and others (59) (55) (49)
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.3 Net cash from investments (474) (406) (398)
Cash from financing
B/S rat ios Equity raised/(repaid) - - -
Inventory days 65 52 51 Debt raised/(repaid) 259 (120) (42)
Creditors days 79 75 82 Dividend (incl. tax) (28) (32) (48)
Debtor days 62 55 57 Others (incl extraordinaries) 10 0 (3)
Working capital days 54 37 32 Net cash from financing 241 (151) (93)
Gross asset turnover (x) 2.2 2.4 2.7 Change in cash position (52) 51 25
Net asset turnover (x) 4.7 4.8 5.4 Closing cash 99 151 175 Sales/operating assets (x) 4.3 4.7 5.2
Current ratio (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4 Quarterly financials*Debt-equity (x) 1.7 1.3 1.1 (₹ m n) Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14
Net debt/equity (x) 1.6 1.2 0.9 Net Sales 2,578 2,672 3,349 2,588 3,056
Interest coverage 3.0 2.7 3.3 Change (q-o-q) 35% 4% 25% -23% 18%
EBITDA 212 221 243 181 194
Per share Change (q-o-q) 20% 4% 10% -25% 7%
FY11 FY12 FY13 EBITDA margin 8.2% 8.3% 7.3% 7.0% 6.4%
Adj EPS (₹) 6.6 7.3 9.4 PAT 80 82 101 58 63
CEPS 11.7 12.6 15.3 Adj PAT 80 82 101 58 63
Book value 30.1 36.5 44.4 Change (q-o-q) 52% 2% 23% -42% 7%
Dividend (₹) 0.7 0.8 1.2 Adj PAT margin 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0%
Actual o/s shares (mn) 34.5 34.5 34.5 Adj EPS 2.3 2.4 2.9 1.7 1.8
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