Deterrence and the Death Penalty Llad Phillips. 2 VI. Lecture Six: “Deterrence and the Death...

transcript

Deterrence and the Death PenaltyDeterrence and the Death Penalty

Llad Phillips

Llad Phillips 2

VI. Lecture Six: “Deterrence and the Death Penalty”, Professor Phillips

Ch. 10 (P&V) "Isolating Deterrence Using the Simultaneous Equation System"

References: Gary Becker, "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach" Journal of Political Economy, March/April 1968 (RBR)

Llad Phillips 3

Economic Conditions and CrimeEconomic Conditions and Crime

California Crime Index Turns Back Up in California Crime Index Turns Back Up in the New Milleniumthe New Millenium

Llad Phillips 4

Rates for the Misery Index and the California Crime Index, 1952-2001

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Misery Index

CA Crime Index

Llad Phillips 5

California Homicide Rate Per 100,000: 1952-2003

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Llad Phillips 6

Damages: US Violence, 1993Damages: US Violence, 1993

Offense Loss Rate ReportedOffenses

Damages,Billions, $

Homicide $1,191,000 24,526 $46.8

Rape $87,000 104,806 $9.1

Assault $15,000 1,135,099 $17.0

Total $72.9

Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)

Llad Phillips 7

Increase in CA HomicidesIncrease in CA Homicides

2002 to 2003: at least 10 more homicides2002 to 2003: at least 10 more homicides @$1,191,000, increased damages of $11.9 @$1,191,000, increased damages of $11.9

million, minimummillion, minimum 2003: 2402 homicides2003: 2402 homicides

@$1,191,000, total damages of $ 2.86 billion@$1,191,000, total damages of $ 2.86 billion

http://caag.state.ca.us/

Llad Phillips 8

Crime Generation

Crime Control

OffenseRate PerCapita

ExpectedCost ofPunishment

Schematic of the Criminal Justice System

Causes ?

(detention,deterrence)

Expenditures

Weak Link

Llad Phillips 9

Questions About CrimeQuestions About Crime Does the Expected Severity of Punishment Does the Expected Severity of Punishment

Deter Crime?Deter Crime? expected severity = probability of punishment * expected severity = probability of punishment *

severity of punishmentseverity of punishment e.g. in LA County: 0.005*death penaltye.g. in LA County: 0.005*death penalty

Why Do We Keep Building Prisons at Great Why Do We Keep Building Prisons at Great Expense to Warehouse Convicts?Expense to Warehouse Convicts? Doesn’t deterrence work?Doesn’t deterrence work? Do we have to rely on detention?Do we have to rely on detention?

Llad Phillips 10

Controversy About the Death PenaltyControversy About the Death Penalty Death penalty is the most severe sentence.Death penalty is the most severe sentence.

Does it deter crime?Does it deter crime? Opponents of the death penalty say no.Opponents of the death penalty say no.

• Their evidence? Critiques of studies that indicate the death Their evidence? Critiques of studies that indicate the death penalty is a deterrent.penalty is a deterrent.

Why are so few murderers who receive the Why are so few murderers who receive the death sentence executed in California? death sentence executed in California? Death sentence appeases the proponents.Death sentence appeases the proponents. Few executions appeases the opponents.Few executions appeases the opponents.

Llad Phillips 11

Llad Phillips 12

Public Opinion: Do You Believe in Capital Punishment?

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Roper Poll

Harris Poll

http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook

Llad Phillips 13

Policy Impact of Opponents to the Death PenaltyPolicy Impact of Opponents to the Death Penalty As an instrument for crime control, As an instrument for crime control,

deterrence has been a casualty of the deterrence has been a casualty of the argument about the death penalty.argument about the death penalty. The argument: if the death penalty does not The argument: if the death penalty does not

deter murderers, then deterrence must not work deter murderers, then deterrence must not work as a control.as a control.

As a consequence, society relies more and As a consequence, society relies more and more on detention for crime control.more on detention for crime control. Society builds more and more prisons.Society builds more and more prisons.

Llad Phillips 14

Homicide in Los Angeles CountyHomicide in Los Angeles County 1990-1994: 9442 1990-1994: 9442

homicideshomicides Increasing number of Increasing number of

gang murdersgang murders > 40 % of the total> 40 % of the total

Only 1 in 3 murders Only 1 in 3 murders leads to punishmentleads to punishment gang killings are harder gang killings are harder

to solveto solve

Llad Phillips 15

9442 homicidesin LA County

46%unsolved

54%solved

87%arrest andprosecution(47%)

dismissedor not guilty

68%guilty (32%)

Branching Diagram

Llad Phillips 16

Branching Diagram, Continued

Guilty (32%)

dismissedor not guilty

Manslaughter

1st & 2nd degree murder (16%)

15 years to life (7.0%)

25 years to life (5.0%)

life without parole (3.5%)

death sentence( 0.5%)

Llad Phillips 21

California Homicide Rate Per 100,000: 1952-2003

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Who has benefited the mostfrom the decline in the homicide rate in the nineties?

Who is the victim, family, friendor stranger?

http://caag.state.ca.us/ Homicide in California, 1998

Llad Phillips 24

Llad Phillips 25

Death Sentences Commuted:USDeath Sentences Commuted:US

Commuted

Llad Phillips 26

Llad Phillips 27

Executions in the United StatesExecutions in the United States

Sentenced Commuted Executed

Llad Phillips 28

Inflow

Sentenced to Death

Prisoners on Death Row

Outflow

SentencesCommuted,Executions

Administration of Capital Sentences in the US

Llad Phillips 29

Prisoners on Death Row: USPrisoners on Death Row: US

Prisoners on Death Row

Llad Phillips 30

The Death Penalty in CaliforniaThe Death Penalty in California

Eleven persons were executed between Eleven persons were executed between 1965 and 20051965 and 2005

In January 2005, there were 640 convicts on In January 2005, there were 640 convicts on death rowdeath row

Llad Phillips 31

Llad Phillips 32

Llad Phillips 33

California Department of Corrections: http//www.cdc.state.ca.us/

California Executions Since 1978

Name Date Received Date Executed Time on Death Row

Robert Alton Harris 3/14/79 4/21/92 13 years, 1 month

David Edwin Mason 1/27/84 8/24/93 9 years, 7 months

William George Bonin 3/22/82 2/23/96 13 years, 1 month

Keith Daniel Williams 4/13/79 5/3/96 17 years

Thomas M. Thompson 8/23/84 7/14/98 14 years, 1 month

Kelvin Malone 6/22/81 1/13/99 (Missouri) 15 years, 6 months

Jaturun Siripongs 5/2/83 2/9/99 15 years, 9 months

Manuel Babbitt 7/15/82 5/4/99 16 years, 10 months

Darrell Keith Rich 1/23/81 3/15/00 19 years, 1 month

Robert Lee Massie 5/28/79 3/27/01 21 years, 10 months

Stephen Wayne Anderson 7/30/81 1/29/02 20 years, 6 months

Llad Phillips 35

Llad Phillips 36

Llad Phillips 37

California Executions: 1893-2004

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Llad Phillips 38

Llad Phillips 39

Execution Witness Area

Llad Phillips 40

Execution Chamber

Llad Phillips 41

GasChamber

Llad Phillips 42

Split Personality BehaviorsJack Hirshleifer: “The Expanding Domainof Economics”

Choice

Work and no violence

Work andbrawl in bars

Economic Manmotive: self-interest

Economic Manmotive: self-interestwith episodes ofantagonism

Assaulter’sIncome

Victim’s Income

Total or Social Income

Motivation for Violence: Antagonism

Assaulters Iso-preference Lines

choice

Work and no violence

Work andbrawl in bars

expect $24,000/yr

Apprehended: lose 1 month in court andjail, $22,000

0.9 Not apprehended$24,000

Expected income: 0.1*$22,000 + 0.9*$24,000 = $23,800

Llad Phillips 45

Questions About Statistical Studies of DeterrenceQuestions About Statistical Studies of Deterrence Do we know enough about the factors that cause Do we know enough about the factors that cause

crime?crime? Can we find variables that will control for variation in Can we find variables that will control for variation in

crime generation?crime generation? We have better measures for the factors that We have better measures for the factors that

control crime than for the factors that cause crime.control crime than for the factors that cause crime. Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the

effects of crime control.effects of crime control.

Llad Phillips 46

Crime Generation

Crime Control

OffenseRate PerCapita

ExpectedCost ofPunishment

Schematic of the Criminal Justice System

Causes ?

(detention,deterrence)

Expenditures

Weak Link

Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors

Offenserate percapita

Expected cost(severity) of punishment

crime generation function

Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors

Offenserate percapita

Expected cost(severity) of punishment

crime generation function

High causal conditions

Low causal conditions

Production Function for the Criminal Justice System (CJS)1. Variation in expected costs of punishment with criminal justice system expenditure per capita

Expected costs ofpunishment

Criminal Justice System expenditures per capita

production function

per capita expenditures on CJS

offense rate per capita

expected cost of punishment

Crime Generation

Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Llad Phillips 62

SummarySummary

The death penalty stirs strong emotions.The death penalty stirs strong emotions. To attack the death penalty, opponents have To attack the death penalty, opponents have

attacked the concept of deterrence.attacked the concept of deterrence. Proponents of deterrence have lost the argument Proponents of deterrence have lost the argument

to proponents of detention.to proponents of detention. Weakness: not understanding causes of crime.Weakness: not understanding causes of crime.

Detention is the principal instrument of crime Detention is the principal instrument of crime control policy today in the US. control policy today in the US.

Llad Phillips 64

Prisoners Sentenced to Death:USPrisoners Sentenced to Death:US

Sentenced

Llad Phillips 65

Executions in the USExecutions in the US

Executed

Llad Phillips 66

California Homicide Rate Per 100,000 People

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Deterrence and the Death Penalty Llad Phillips. 2 VI. Lecture Six: “Deterrence and the Death...

Documents