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The Deterrence Hypothesis And Picking Pockets at the Pickpocket’s Hanging
Slide 1
The Deterrence HypothesisAnd Picking Pockets at the Pickpockets Hanging
The Aggregate Burden of Crime$1,705,000,000 per year in the U.S. $4,118 per person
Dips have more to do with the economy than with punishment.8
Gary Becker (1968) argued that crime is rational.
Others followed suitBlock and Heineke (1975), Polinsky and Shavell (1999), Rubin, Dezhbakhsh, and Shephard (2002),
This supports the Criminal Deterrence Hypothesis:
Punishment CrimeCrime and RationalityWhile it is true that on the current margin, some criminals seem to respond to punishment, Is it appropriate to model all criminal behavior as rational? That is, how many of our criminals are rational?
Would punishment ever lead to a satisfactory reduction in crime?
What alternatives to punishment might have a larger effect?Marginal Cost / BenefitNumber of CrimesMBMCCrimes*Marginal Cost / BenefitNumber of CrimesMBMCCrimes*I wont get caught.Marginal Cost / BenefitNumber of CrimesMBCrimes*Anger dominates rationalityConditions for Rational DecisionsPositive estimate of arrest and convictionThought about the possibility of apprehensionSome idea of the likely punishmentThought about the likely punishment at time of decision to commit crimeCountervailing EffectsPerceived InvincibilityAlcohol / DrugsLack of InformationRebellion and Thrill SeekingPunishment as Right of PassageFormal Punishment is Small Fraction of Cost to CriminalCareer loss, Relationship lossEmbarrassmentCost of timeClearance Rates(% of known offenses resulting in an arrest)Murder and non-negligent manslaughter67%
Aggravated assault58%
Forcible rape52%
All violent crime47%
Felony Conviction RatesDrug Trafficking73%Murder, Burglary, and Weapons Offenses67%The lowest rate is for assault, which is 41%
Problems with Past ApproachesErlich (1975) estimated that 1 execution prevents 7-8 murdersBowers and Pierce (1980) estimated that 1 execution causes 2-3 murdersAvailable Data Are AggregatedLack Important VariablesMiss Unreported CrimesInvolve Spurious Correlation between Enforcement Measures and Crime Counts Does more detection drive higher crime rates or do higher crime rates drive more detection?
Miss Location and Crime-Type ShiftingResults are not robust across time periods and locations
Survey InstrumentGoing to the SourceWhat type of crime were you arrested for? (Note: If you did not commit the crime that you were arrested for, please reply to each question based on your knowledge of those who do commit such crimes.)How much time did you spend planning and carrying out this incident?If you had a legal job when the crime was committed, how much were you earning?_____ per _____ (hour/year/etc.) In what year? ________How much do you think you could be earning now if you werent involved in crime?_____ per _____ (hour/year/etc.)What was the last grade in school that you completed?When you committed this crime, how likely did you think it was that you would be caught?very likely d) I did not think I would be caught.somewhat likelye) I did not think about it.possible, but not likelyWhen you committed the crime, did you know what the likely punishment would be if you were caught?I knew exactly what the punishment would be.I had a good idea.I had some idea.I had no idea, or I thought I knew but I was wrong.I didnt think about it.Were the following items available, and if not, would they have prevented the crime?Available?Prevented? yes noyes no maybedrug rehabilitation father living with you evening/weekend sports programs awareness of punishment if caught awareness of likelihood of being caught legal employment death penalty for this crime Is there any other type of program, punishment, or detection method that would have prevented you from committing this crime?If the following items existed, would the crime have occurred without them?Existed?Caused? yes noyes no maybedrug use friends who were a bad influence financial needs Boredom violence in TV/Movies you watched Is there anything else that might have caused this crime?
ResultsCognizance of Risks & PunishmentsWhen you committed this crime, how likely did you think it was that you would be caught?ALLDeadlySexRobberyAssaultBurglaryDrugsDUIChild SupForgeryVery likely 0.170.110.100.050.400.140.190.200.170.43Somewhat likely0.070.050.000.040.040.060.150.180.170.00Possible, but not likely0.130.110.100.130.000.170.190.090.170.14I did not think I would be caught.0.210.190.200.320.080.190.230.180.000.00I did not think about it.0.420.540.600.460.480.430.250.360.500.43When you committed the crime, did you know what the likely punishment would be if you were caught?ALLDeadlySexRobberyAssaultBurglaryDrugsDUIChild SupForgeryI knew exactly what the punishment would be.0.220.160.100.250.040.210.250.360.500.43I had a good idea.0.130.080.000.140.160.080.250.090.170.00I had some idea.0.110.080.200.090.160.140.110.090.000.14I had no idea, or thought I knew but was wrong.0.180.140.500.200.280.190.130.000.170.14I didnt think about it.0.350.540.200.320.360.380.260.450.170.29Totally incognizant of one or both factors0.760.890.900.880.720.760.640.640.670.71Why Increased Punishment Wont Increase AwarenessMinor increases have accomplished little in the pastMajor increases strike ethical and legal chordsCruel and unusual punishment is prohibited by the 8th and 14th Amendments
Perceived Invincibility is Overarching Reason for Imperviousness
From A Tale of Two Cities: Hell be drawn on a hurdle to be half-hanged, and then hell be taken down and sliced before his own face, and then his inside will be taken out and burnt while he looks on, and then his head will be chopped off and hell be cut into quarters. Thats a sentence!
22Exposures and Subjective InfluencesNEGATIVE INFLUENCECRIMINALS EXPOSED (%)GEN. POP. EXPOSED (%)EXPOSURE HELPED CAUSE CRIME (%)**Recent drug use0.660.060.66Financial needs0.530.14*0.86Friends who were a bad influence0.55n/a0.80Violence in TV / Movies 0.37n/a0.33Boredom0.41n/a0.89* Percent below poverty level.** Expressed as a percentage of those exposed.POSITIVE INFLUENCECRIMINALS EXPOSED (%)GEN. POP. EXPOSED (%)ABSENCE HELPED CAUSE CRIME (%)*Father living with you0.400.780.46High school education0.510.82n/aDrug rehabilitation available0.52n/a0.41Evening / weekend sports programs0.64n/a0.41Legal employment0.720.760.65* Expressed as a percentage of those without the influence.23Alternative Approaches to DeterrenceEducation
Increases Opportunity Cost of CrimeProvides Alternative Income SourcesTakes People Off the StreetsCan Convey Morals / EthicsCan Teach Dispute Resolution Techniques and How to Deal with Peaked EmotionsCan Teach Repercussions of Drugs and CrimeCommunity ProgramsDrug Rehabilitation
Innovative Drug Policy
Concentrate on the Economy, which has larger effect on crime
And they all lived happily ever after.25Chart1091669979911099831163901204961294531370821379971368101383161441801450381527411602851798181737061654391503841372201324561336491400791513041559771637491661231656801682331735791829011857801895651954142056432081052129532201492188302172832143362108951996541948961879141960071964291980611960922042112184662405932628332781412943963014703159743531673943744198204433984805685220845608126037326809077399807896108462779320741016691108536311389841197590
Total Number of PrisonersTotal Number of Sentenced Prisoners
prisoners192591669791926979918319271099839119281163909619291204969819301294531041931137082110193213799711019331368101091934138316109193514418011319361450381131937152741118193816028512319391798181371940173706131194116543912419421503841121943137220103194413245610019451336499819461400799919471513041051948155977106194916374910919501661231091951165680107195216823310719531735791081954182901112195518578011219561895651121957195414113195820564311719592081051171960212953117196122014911919622188301171963217283114196421433611119652108951081966199654102196719489698196818791494196919600797197019642996197119806195197219609293197320421196197421846610219752405931111976262833120197727814112619782943961321979301470133198031597413919813531671541982394374171198341982017919844433981881985480568202198652208421719875608122311988603732247198968090727619907399802971991789610313199284627733219939320743591994101669138919951085363411199611389844271997119759044519981999
prisoners
Total Number of PrisonersTotal Number of Sentenced Prisoners
crime rates
Rate (per 100,000) of Sentenced Prisoners
Sheet3196028846030957001961289390319860019623015103450700196331697037925001964364220420040019653873904352000196643018047933001967499930540350019685950106125200196966187067490001970738820735920019718165007771700197283490074139001973875910784220019749747209278700197510397101025270019761004210103455001977102958099550001978108555010123400197912080301104150019801344520120637001981136182012061900198213223901165200019831258090108505001984127328010608500198513288001110260019861489170117227001987148400012024700198815662201235690019891646040126054001990182013012655500199119117701296110019921932270125059001993192602012218800199418576701213190019951798790120639001996168228011791300
Sheet3
Property CrimeIncidentsProperty Crime
Violent CrimeIncidentsViolent Crime
Chart97983919698104110110109109113113118123137131124112103100989910510610910910710710811211211211311711711711911711411110810298949796959396102111120126132133139154171179188202217231247276297313332359389411427445
Rate (per 100,000) of Sentenced Prisoners
prisoners192591669791926979918319271099839119281163909619291204969819301294531041931137082110193213799711019331368101091934138316109193514418011319361450381131937152741118193816028512319391798181371940173706131194116543912419421503841121943137220103194413245610019451336499819461400799919471513041051948155977106194916374910919501661231091951165680107195216823310719531735791081954182901112195518578011219561895651121957195414113195820564311719592081051171960212953117196122014911919622188301171963217283114196421433611119652108951081966199654102196719489698196818791494196919600797197019642996197119806195197219609293197320421196197421846610219752405931111976262833120197727814112619782943961321979301470133198031597413919813531671541982394374171198341982017919844433981881985480568202198652208421719875608122311988603732247198968090727619907399802971991789610313199284627733219939320743591994101669138919951085363411199611389844271997119759044519981999
prisoners
Total Number of PrisonersTotal Number of Sentenced Prisoners
crime rates
Rate (per 100,000) of Sentenced Prisoners
Sheet3196028846030957001961289390319860019623015103450700196331697037925001964364220420040019653873904352000196643018047933001967499930540350019685950106125200196966187067490001970738820735920019718165007771700197283490074139001973875910784220019749747209278700197510397101025270019761004210103455001977102958099550001978108555010123400197912080301104150019801344520120637001981136182012061900198213223901165200019831258090108505001984127328010608500198513288001110260019861489170117227001987148400012024700198815662201235690019891646040126054001990182013012655500199119117701296110019921932270125059001993192602012218800199418576701213190019951798790120639001996168228011791300
Sheet3
Property CrimeIncidentsProperty Crime
Violent CrimeIncidentsViolent Crime
Chart12884602893903015103169703642203873904301804999305950106618707388208165008349008759109747201039710100421010295801085550120803013445201361820132239012580901273280132880014891701484000156622016460401820130191177019322701926020185767017987901682280
Violent CrimeIncidentsViolent Crime
prisoners192591669791926979918319271099839119281163909619291204969819301294531041931137082110193213799711019331368101091934138316109193514418011319361450381131937152741118193816028512319391798181371940173706131194116543912419421503841121943137220103194413245610019451336499819461400799919471513041051948155977106194916374910919501661231091951165680107195216823310719531735791081954182901112195518578011219561895651121957195414113195820564311719592081051171960212953117196122014911919622188301171963217283114196421433611119652108951081966199654102196719489698196818791494196919600797197019642996197119806195197219609293197320421196197421846610219752405931111976262833120197727814112619782943961321979301470133198031597413919813531671541982394374171198341982017919844433981881985480568202198652208421719875608122311988603732247198968090727619907399802971991789610313199284627733219939320743591994101669138919951085363411199611389844271997119759044519981999
prisoners0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Total Number of PrisonersTotal Number of Sentenced Prisoners
crime rates0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Rate (per 100,000) of Sentenced Prisoners
Sheet3196028846030957001961289390319860019623015103450700196331697037925001964364220420040019653873904352000196643018047933001967499930540350019685950106125200196966187067490001970738820735920019718165007771700197283490074139001973875910784220019749747209278700197510397101025270019761004210103455001977102958099550001978108555010123400197912080301104150019801344520120637001981136182012061900198213223901165200019831258090108505001984127328010608500198513288001110260019861489170117227001987148400012024700198815662201235690019891646040126054001990182013012655500199119117701296110019921932270125059001993192602012218800199418576701213190019951798790120639001996168228011791300
Sheet3
Property CrimeIncidentsProperty Crime
Violent CrimeIncidentsViolent Crime
Chart113095700319860034507003792500420040043520004793300540350061252006749000735920077717007413900784220092787001025270010345500995500010123400110415001206370012061900116520001085050010608500111026001172270012024700123569001260540012655500129611001250590012218800121319001206390011791300
Property CrimeIncidentsProperty Crime
prisoners192591669791926979918319271099839119281163909619291204969819301294531041931137082110193213799711019331368101091934138316109193514418011319361450381131937152741118193816028512319391798181371940173706131194116543912419421503841121943137220103194413245610019451336499819461400799919471513041051948155977106194916374910919501661231091951165680107195216823310719531735791081954182901112195518578011219561895651121957195414113195820564311719592081051171960212953117196122014911919622188301171963217283114196421433611119652108951081966199654102196719489698196818791494196919600797197019642996197119806195197219609293197320421196197421846610219752405931111976262833120197727814112619782943961321979301470133198031597413919813531671541982394374171198341982017919844433981881985480568202198652208421719875608122311988603732247198968090727619907399802971991789610313199284627733219939320743591994101669138919951085363411199611389844271997119759044519981999
prisoners
Total Number of PrisonersTotal Number of Sentenced Prisoners
crime rates
Rate (per 100,000) of Sentenced Prisoners
Sheet3196028846030957001961289390319860019623015103450700196331697037925001964364220420040019653873904352000196643018047933001967499930540350019685950106125200196966187067490001970738820735920019718165007771700197283490074139001973875910784220019749747209278700197510397101025270019761004210103455001977102958099550001978108555010123400197912080301104150019801344520120637001981136182012061900198213223901165200019831258090108505001984127328010608500198513288001110260019861489170117227001987148400012024700198815662201235690019891646040126054001990182013012655500199119117701296110019921932270125059001993192602012218800199418576701213190019951798790120639001996168228011791300
Sheet3
Property CrimeIncidentsProperty Crime
Violent CrimeIncidentsViolent Crime
