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transcript
Expo 2010 Shanghai China
05/July/ 2010
Paulo Camillo Vargas Penna
Investment Opportunities
in BrazilIBRAM – The Brazilian Mining Association
Non-profit private organization that represents the Brazilian Mineral Industry;
Founded in 1976;
Congregates 182 companies [mining and non-mining];
Represents more than 85% of the Brazilian Mineral Production (US$ 24 billion in 2009 – excluding oil and natural gas).
IBRAM has two regional offices in the States of Minas Gerais and Pará. The Headquarters is located in Brasilia - Capital of Brazil.
IBRAM- Brazilian Mining Association
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN BRAZIL
Opportunities in Mining Sector
Opportunities in Mining Infrastructure
Opportunities in Mineral Exploration
New challenges in Mining in Brazil
Opportunities in mining sector
ChinaChina
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0,3
0,5
0,8
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população rural
população urbana
bilh
õe
s d
e p
ess
oa
s
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
população rural
população urbana
bilh
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Drivers of demand
Urbanization of the World Population
Economic Perspectives
WorldWorld
Rural
Urban Urban
Rural
2050 2009$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0China USA India Brazil Rus USA Japan GerChina UK
US$ trillion
Fonte: Goldman Sachs, september 2008
The 5 largest Economies Current comparison and a project for the year 2050
Brazil in a Global Context
GDP > US$ 1 trillion
Area > 5 million Km² Pop > 150 million
Russia
USA
BRAZIL
China
Canada
Australia
Germany
Spain
Italy
South Korea
France
United
Kingdom
Mexico
India
Japan
Indonesia
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
BRAZIL-Social and Economic Overview
LONG-TERM TRENDS – 5-YEAR AVERAGES
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14
Population (million): 174.6 185.4 200.6
GDP (USD bn): 566.8 1,346 2,222
GDP per capita (USD) 3,244 7,240 11,062
GDP growth (%) 3.0 3.6 4.8
Inflation (%) 8.7 5.1 4.6
External Debt (%of GDP) 38.9 14.7 11.9
Land Area (km²) – 8,511,965
Opportunities in mining sector
Not included oil and gas
Evolution of The Brazilian Mineral Production in US$ Billion
Estimates are for the Brazilian Mineral Production to reach US$ 35 Bilion in 2010
Variation 2000/2008
250%
2008 = US$ 28 Billion
2009 = US$ 24 Billion
Year 1009080604020098969492908684828078 88
35
25
20
15
10
5
0
Main Brazilian Mineral Provinces
Bacia do Reconcavo -Tucano
Rondônia
Bacia do Paraná
Maciço de Goiás
Borborema
Vila Nova
Centro-Sul Baiano
Rio do Peixe
Escudo Sul Rio Grandense
Bacia do Bambuí e Espinhaço Meridional
Opportunities in mining sector
Brazilian Status on the Mineral Global Market
Exporter
Global PlayerExporter Self Sufficiency
Importer/
ProducerImporter
Nickel
Magnesium
Kaolin
Tin
Vermiculite
Chrome
Mica
Niobium (1st)
Iron Ore (1st)
Bauxite (2nd)
Manganese (2nd)
Graphite (3rd)
Crysothile (4°)
Tantalum (2nd)
Dimension Stone (4°)
Limestone (cement)
Industrial Diamond
Titanium
Gold
Tungsten
Talc
Zinc
Phosphate
Zirconite
Diatomite
Copper
Metallurgic Coal
Sulfur
Potash
Rare Earth Elements
Opportunity?
Opportunities in mining sector
Major mineral products imported in 2009 and 2008
Opportunities in mining sector
2009 S* 2008 S* ∆ 09/08 %Total Brazilian Imports 127.647 - 173.196 - (26,30)
Mineral Primary Goods Imports 5.497 4,3 9.729 5,6 (43,50) Metallurgic Coal 2.181 40 3.691 38 (40,91)
Potassium 2.060 37 3.828 39 (46,19)
Sulfur 197 4 1.039 11 (81,04)
Phosphate 84 2 312 3 (73,08) Outros 561 10 1.019 10 (44,95)
Brazil Trade Total Balance 25.347 24.746 2,43
Mineral Trade Balance 12.599 49,7 13.113 53,0 (3,92)
* Share in total Export/Import
Crisis
Investments in Mining Sector 2010 a 2014Evolution of investments estimates in the mineral sector in
US$ billion
Investment in Mining Sector 2010 to 201436
.530
31.5
65
6.71
6
3.54
6
1.00
0
1.50
0
987 2.51
9
2.20
0
2.20
0
2.51
0
2.05
7
2.35
7
2.73
9
1.40
1
979
300
44270
Iron Ore
Nickel Alumina Bauxite Aluminium Phosphate Copper Gold Manganese CoalVanadium
Opportunities in mining sector
New investments in the Mining Sector from 2010 to 2014 – US$ 54 billion
Investments in Mining Sector from 2009 to 2013 – US$ 47 billion
Opportunity in infrastructure
Brazil is one of the countries with the highest mineral potential in the world.
Opportunities in infrastructure
Abundant geological potential to be explored in an 8,514,876.599 km2 continental extension
Infrastructure undergoing an expansion process
Skilled labor creates an environment conducive to the growth of mining and metallurgy in the country.
A country with ample tradition in mining
An enormous territory with the potential for great mineral reserves
Source: Brazilian Association of infraestructure -Abdib
Transportation and Logistics
US$ 13,5
BRAZIL
It is necessary to invest US$ 90 billion
per year in infrastructure
ENERGY
US$ 16
Sanitation US$ 7,5
Telecommunications
US$ 11
Oil and Gas
US$ 42,5
Opportunity in infrastructure
Annual investments necessary in infrastructure in BRAZIL
Indicative areas for port installation and expansion
Opportunity in infrastructure
PortsNew areas for port facilitiesNatural vocation for port activitiesHydrographySouth AmericaBrazil
Milions of Tons Transported
472
22
Mississippi
USA
Brazil
Araguaia-Tocantins
ParaguaiParaná
Atlântico Sul
São Francisco
Parnaiba
Amazônica
Atlântico Sudeste
Opportunity in infrastructure
Brazil’s Main Hydrographic Basins
Opportunities in Mineral Exploration
Canada
(US$ 1,2 billion)
16%
Australia
(US$ 1 billion)
13%
BRAZIL
(US$ 234 million)
3%
Opportunities in mineral exploration
Mineral Exploration Investments by the 10 Leading Countries2009
Source: Metals Economics Group
Opportunities in Mineral Exploration2004 – 2008 Program:
mapping 30% of the Brazilian Territory focused on mineral
potential areas.
LEGEND
Sedimentary areas
Basement areas
PREVIOUS MAPPING PROGRAM
Maps 1:100.000
Maps 1:250.000
Program
2004-2008
Maps 1:100.000 (283)
Maps 1:250.000 (94)
NEW CHALLENGES IN MINING
Mining Process
Indigenous Areas
Indigenous Areas: 13% of National Territory 25% of the Amazon Region
New Challenges Mining in Indian Lands
New Challenges Brazilian Continental Platform
Aggregates GoldDiamondCoalPhosphateCobaltOthersTerritory emerged 8.500.000
Exclusive economic zone 3.500.000
Extension of the continental platform referred to the UN
Total area of continental and marine
1.000.000
13.000.000
New Challenges Modification of Monopoly - exploration and mining of Nuclear Ores
Inasmuch as Brazil has only 30% of the territory prospected for Uranium, the country ranks as the 7th richest nation in the world in this mineral.
Currently Brazil has a reserve of 310 thousand tons, but there are estimates that it has more than 800 thousand tons, which will bring the country to rank the second or third largest reserves in the world.
Investment opportunities in the BRAZIL
Conclusion
BRAZIL TODAY
Macroeconomic stability
Sustainable growth
Need to expand and improve its infrastructure
Needs to increase the area of geological and geophysical mapping
Great opportunities for investments in mining companies
Thank You
http://www.ibram.org.br
Paulo Camillo Vargas Penna
President