Post on 24-Aug-2018
transcript
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
ForSAFE-VEG: Climate Related Input
for Switzerland
ForSAFE-VEG: Climate Related Input
for Switzerland
Beat Rihm (METEOTEST, Bern)with important contributions from:• Jürg Luterbacher (University of Bern,
Institute of Geography), historical climate• Jan Remund (METEOTEST, Bern),
METEONORM programming
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
OverviewOverview
• required (desired) input parameters
• data sources
• methods
• results (examples)
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Input Requirements: Climate (1)Input Requirements: Climate (1)
Monthly 2m air temperature values, °C:• monthly mean air temperature (TT)• monthly average of daily minima (TDmin)• monthly average of daily maxima (TDmax)• monthly minimum of air temperature (TTmin)• number of frost days in the month.
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Input Requirements: Climate (2)Input Requirements: Climate (2)
• Monthly sum of precipitation (RR), in mm.• Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR),
monthly average between sunrise and sunset, in µE m-2 s-1, derived from global solar radiation G(1 µE = 1 µmol photons = 6.022 1017 photons)
• Monthly mean CO2 concentration in the air, in ppm (so far not used by ForSAFE-VEG)
• (planned) Monthly mean ozone concentration in the air, in ppm.
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Source (1): Weather StationsSource (1): Weather StationsSpatial interpolation (3-D inverse distance model):Mean TT, RR and G for base period 1961-1990
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Site-specific climate, average of the base period 1961-1990Site-specific climate, average of the base period 1961-1990
• Monthlydm-site„Beatenberg“
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
METEONORM: data and toolsMETEONORM: data and tools• Data and interpolation models to calculate mean
values for any site (in the world).• From the monthly values (measured, inter-
polated or imported data), METEONORM calculates hourly values using a stochastic model with autocorrelation. These time series correspond to "typical years“.
• TDmin, TTmin, frost derived from hourly values.• www.meteonorm.com by METEOTEST,
supported by Swiss Federal Office of Energy.
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
METEONORM (2)METEONORM (2)• Effects of high horizon considered for radiation• Effects of large lakes and (southern) slopes
considered for temperature
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR)Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR)• photon flux density in the 400–700 nm
waveband, expressed in µE m-2 s-1
(1 E = 1 mol photons = 1 Einstein) • Alados-Aboledas et al. (2000) empirical function:
PAR = f(global solar radiation, solar zenithangle, clearness index)
• Example Beatenberg,average of base period:
050
100150200250300350400450500550600650700
15 46 74 105 135 166 196 227 258 288 319 349
day of year (doy)
µmol
pho
tons
m-2
s-1
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Source (2): Climate ReconstructionSource (2): Climate Reconstruction
• Measurements and documentary proxy evidence.
• Mean monthly temperature (TT) 1659-1900: Luterbacher et al. (2004), Xoplaki et al. (2005).
• Mean monthly temperature (TT) 1901-2002: Mitchell and Jones (2005).
• Monthly precipitation sum (RR) 1659-1800: Luterbacher et al. (2007).
• Monthly precipitation sum (RR) 1801-2002: Efthymiadis et al. (2006).
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Reconstructions of RR and TT, January 1659 to December 2002Reconstructions of RR and TT, January 1659 to December 2002Luterbacher 2007 supplied 0.1°•0.1°grids for RR
0.5°•0.5°for TT
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Anomalies of TT and RR related to base period 1961-1990Anomalies of TT and RR related to base period 1961-1990• monthly deviations 1659-2002 with respect to
the base period means
Exam
pleTT A
ugust B
eatenberg
August temperature anomalies 1659-2002 (reference 1961-1990) at Beatenberg (DMsite 2086)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
YEAR16
6816
7816
8816
9817
0817
1817
2817
3817
4817
5817
6817
7817
8817
9818
0818
1818
2818
3818
4818
5818
6818
7818
8818
9819
0819
1819
2819
3819
4819
5819
6819
7819
8819
98
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Source (3): Climate ProjectionsSource (3): Climate Projections
IPCC TAR (2001): CO2 emission scenario IS92a
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Future Anomalies of TT and RRFuture Anomalies of TT and RRHadley CM3 model http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html
http://www.ipcc-data.org/
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Resulting time-series temperatureResulting time-series temperature
January
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
July
Exam
pleB
eatenbergApril: TT (green), Tdmin (blue), Tdmax (red), frost days (pink)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Resulting time-series precipitation(mm / month) Resulting time-series precipitation(mm / month)
Exam
pleB
eatenberg
January
0
10
2030
4050
60
70
80
90100
110
120
130140
150160
170
180
190
200
1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
July
CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input
Conclusions Conclusions • Important to obtain optimal input data: combine
site-related (or interpolated) meteorological data with long-term relative trends (anomalies) available only at a coarse spatial resolution.
• For the greater Alpine region: good historical data from University of Bern.
• A sensitivity analysis would be useful to identify the importance of single input parameters and periods.
• Introduce inter-annual variations of TT and RR 2000-2100 (besides the general trend).