CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

ForSAFE-VEG: Climate Related Input

for Switzerland

ForSAFE-VEG: Climate Related Input

for Switzerland

Beat Rihm (METEOTEST, Bern)with important contributions from:• Jürg Luterbacher (University of Bern,

Institute of Geography), historical climate• Jan Remund (METEOTEST, Bern),

METEONORM programming

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

OverviewOverview

• required (desired) input parameters

• data sources

• methods

• results (examples)

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Input Requirements: Climate (1)Input Requirements: Climate (1)

Monthly 2m air temperature values, °C:• monthly mean air temperature (TT)• monthly average of daily minima (TDmin)• monthly average of daily maxima (TDmax)• monthly minimum of air temperature (TTmin)• number of frost days in the month.

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Input Requirements: Climate (2)Input Requirements: Climate (2)

• Monthly sum of precipitation (RR), in mm.• Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR),

monthly average between sunrise and sunset, in µE m-2 s-1, derived from global solar radiation G(1 µE = 1 µmol photons = 6.022 1017 photons)

• Monthly mean CO2 concentration in the air, in ppm (so far not used by ForSAFE-VEG)

• (planned) Monthly mean ozone concentration in the air, in ppm.

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Source (1): Weather StationsSource (1): Weather StationsSpatial interpolation (3-D inverse distance model):Mean TT, RR and G for base period 1961-1990

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Site-specific climate, average of the base period 1961-1990Site-specific climate, average of the base period 1961-1990

• Monthlydm-site„Beatenberg“

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

METEONORM: data and toolsMETEONORM: data and tools• Data and interpolation models to calculate mean

values for any site (in the world).• From the monthly values (measured, inter-

polated or imported data), METEONORM calculates hourly values using a stochastic model with autocorrelation. These time series correspond to "typical years“.

• TDmin, TTmin, frost derived from hourly values.• www.meteonorm.com by METEOTEST,

supported by Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

METEONORM (2)METEONORM (2)• Effects of high horizon considered for radiation• Effects of large lakes and (southern) slopes

considered for temperature

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR)Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR)• photon flux density in the 400–700 nm

waveband, expressed in µE m-2 s-1

(1 E = 1 mol photons = 1 Einstein) • Alados-Aboledas et al. (2000) empirical function:

PAR = f(global solar radiation, solar zenithangle, clearness index)

• Example Beatenberg,average of base period:

050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700

15 46 74 105 135 166 196 227 258 288 319 349

day of year (doy)

µmol

pho

tons

m-2

s-1

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Source (2): Climate ReconstructionSource (2): Climate Reconstruction

• Measurements and documentary proxy evidence.

• Mean monthly temperature (TT) 1659-1900: Luterbacher et al. (2004), Xoplaki et al. (2005).

• Mean monthly temperature (TT) 1901-2002: Mitchell and Jones (2005).

• Monthly precipitation sum (RR) 1659-1800: Luterbacher et al. (2007).

• Monthly precipitation sum (RR) 1801-2002: Efthymiadis et al. (2006).

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Reconstructions of RR and TT, January 1659 to December 2002Reconstructions of RR and TT, January 1659 to December 2002Luterbacher 2007 supplied 0.1°•0.1°grids for RR

0.5°•0.5°for TT

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Anomalies of TT and RR related to base period 1961-1990Anomalies of TT and RR related to base period 1961-1990• monthly deviations 1659-2002 with respect to

the base period means

Exam

pleTT A

ugust B

eatenberg

August temperature anomalies 1659-2002 (reference 1961-1990) at Beatenberg (DMsite 2086)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

YEAR16

6816

7816

8816

9817

0817

1817

2817

3817

4817

5817

6817

7817

8817

9818

0818

1818

2818

3818

4818

5818

6818

7818

8818

9819

0819

1819

2819

3819

4819

5819

6819

7819

8819

98

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Source (3): Climate ProjectionsSource (3): Climate Projections

IPCC TAR (2001): CO2 emission scenario IS92a

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Future Anomalies of TT and RRFuture Anomalies of TT and RRHadley CM3 model http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html

http://www.ipcc-data.org/

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Resulting time-series temperatureResulting time-series temperature

January

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

July

Exam

pleB

eatenbergApril: TT (green), Tdmin (blue), Tdmax (red), frost days (pink)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Resulting time-series precipitation(mm / month) Resulting time-series precipitation(mm / month)

Exam

pleB

eatenberg

January

0

10

2030

4050

60

70

80

90100

110

120

130140

150160

170

180

190

200

1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

July

CCE Workshop Bern, 21.4.2008. Beat Rihm, ForSAFE-VEG, climate/deposition input

Conclusions Conclusions • Important to obtain optimal input data: combine

site-related (or interpolated) meteorological data with long-term relative trends (anomalies) available only at a coarse spatial resolution.

• For the greater Alpine region: good historical data from University of Bern.

• A sensitivity analysis would be useful to identify the importance of single input parameters and periods.

• Introduce inter-annual variations of TT and RR 2000-2100 (besides the general trend).