S C E N A R I O S

C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T

W H YW H A TH O W

Deep in our hearts, we would all choose a scenario with no surprises. —Pierre Wack

W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?

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BECAUSE WE CAN ACT BECAUSE WE SEEK TO ANTICIPATE UNKNOWNS (DISCONTINUITIES) BECAUSE TRANSISTIONS ARE ACCELERATING

W H Y N O W ?

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BECAUSE WE CAN ACT

… at least more effectively than we could before…

Technology Climate models Tracking sea ice/glacier loss Satellite imagery Spatial modeling

(Cellular Automata)

We understand better the impact of our choices

We know we can do anything we put our minds to

W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?

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DISCONTINUITIES

i.e. atomic warfare: It’s not about the future (Herman Kahn).

We know the future will be different from the past, so why project?

Exogenous events unanticipated by science

‘We live in Extremistan, not Mediocristan’—Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?BECAUSE TRANSITIONS ARE ACCELERATING:

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P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

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P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

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P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

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P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

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P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

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P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

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P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

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F I R S T T R A N S I T I O N

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S E C O N D T R A N S I T I O N

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T H I R D T R A N S I T I O N

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S E C O N D A N D T H I R D T R A N S I T I O N

W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?

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AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Top graphs more like scenarios Timeline based on current

knowledge / technologies

W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?

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AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions: Policy likely inadequate Markets likely to lead to regime

change

W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?

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AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions: Policy likely to favor natural gas Markets likely to favor solar PV

W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?

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AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions: Markets lag on decarbonization Policy best tool for eliminating

liquid fuels for passenger vehicles

W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?

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Not about the futureNot about predictionsIT’S ABOUT CONSEQUENCES FROM CHOICES WE MAKE RIGHT NOW.

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LADIES HOME JOURNAL, 1900

F A L S E S O M E W H A T T R U E T R U T H Y

P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

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ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN FOR HILDEBRAND’S CHOCOLATE, 1900 Themes: Transportation, LeisureAllegory?: North Pole warmingSci-Fi?

P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

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ADVERTISEMENT FROM JAPAN: MID-CENTURY Themes: Transportation, Urbanization

P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

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FILM CONCEPT ART, 2006 Themes: Transportation, Overconsumption, Hopelessness, Urbanization

S C E N A R I O S N O W

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APPLETON ON LYNASSix degrees of climate inferno: Below 2˚ = avoid apocalypse. IPCC hasn’t imagined

Dante’s darkest scenarios.

1˚2˚3˚4˚5˚6˚ A

P O

C A

L Y

P S

EN

O A

P O

C A

L Y

P S

E

?

N O

I P

C C

D A

T A7+˚

1˚2˚3˚4˚5˚6˚7˚

Drought in W. US‘Day turns to night’

Flight from S. Spain

Super-hurricane Odessa: Texas

Mass extinction

Beyond IPCC estimate*

3˚

S C E N A R I O S N O W

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REVISED IPCC SCENARIOS (2013) * Predicted change from period 1986-2005

Source: IPCC

2˚4˚5˚6˚7+˚

Predicted temperature increases under two scenariosRise in average surface temperature by 2081-2100*

Lowest scenario (RCP 2.6) Highest scenario (RCP 8.5)

C O N V E N T I O N A L

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MARKET FORTRESS WORLD ECO-COMMUNAL

POLICY BARBARISMNEW SUSTAIN-ABILITY

Growth outpaces efficiency

Private Sector, International banks, WTO

UN is ‘toothless

Brown Tech

Government Initiatives

Global Citizens movement

May be sustainable, but may be undesirable

Could evolve into New Sustainability

'Planetary apartheid’

Rich in protective enclaves

Fortress collapse would lead to breakdown

Breakdown

Think Mad Max

Could have a ‘second wind’, evolving into Eco-Communalism

Earth Stewards

Think Gandhi and friends in Hobbiton

Permaculture

Market-constraining policies

Poor and Rich de-polarize

UN supersedes nation-state

Green Tech

B R E A K D O W N S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y

W I N N E R S A N D L O S E R S

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Private Sector

International banks, WTO

Brown Tech

Government

Global Citizens movement

The rich—sort-of

Survivalist enthusiasts

Hippies

Global Citizens Movement

The middle class

UN

Green Tech

MARKET FORTRESS WORLD ECO-COMMUNAL

POLICY BARBARISMNEW SUSTAIN-ABILITY

W I N N E R S A N D L O S E R S

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MARKET FORTRESS WORLD ECO-COMMUNAL

POLICY BARBARISMNEW SUSTAIN-ABILITY

Governments

Private enterprise

The poor

Everyone

The rich

No-one

S C E N A R I O M A T R I XOGILVY AND SCHWARTZ

List factors and trendsChoose 2 most criticalAssemble in matrixList potential outcomes in respective cells

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Outcome

Outcome

Outcome

Outcome

A B

A

B

Pop. Growth

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Outcome

Outcome

Outcome

Outcome

Low High

Low

High

Ener

gy D

esce

nt

Population growth

Global governance

Oil prices

Urbanization

Energy descent

Solar technology

Etc.

D I S C U S S I O N

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WHAT REASONS DO WE HAVE TO BE PESSIMISTIC / OPTIMISTIC?WHAT DO WE THINK IS LIKELY?WHAT ARE SOME DISCONTINUITIES WE HAVEN’T CONSIDERED?