Global Teak Trade in the Aftermath of · 3. Global trade in teak roundwood > 1 million m3/yr;...

transcript

Global Teak Trade in the Aftermath of

Myanmar’s Log Export Ban

3rd World Teak Conference 2015, Guayaquil, Ecuador Walter Kollert, FAO & Przemyslaw J. Walotek , WaKa Serviços de

Investimentos Florestais

Myanmar & Teak

• No 1 in natural teak

forests (50%)

• No 1 producer of teak

logs (25%)

• No 3 in planted teak

area (ca. 400,000 ha)

1) Myanmar - a teak heavyweight

2) Log export ban: 1 April 2014

3) Impacts ?

• Illegal harvests, log smuggling,

illegal exports

• Price collaps in log auctions -

no international buyers

• Market opportunity for teak

from Africa and Latin America

• Price increase in consumer

countries due to scarcity of

high quality logs?

Introduction

• Official statistics of national customs

departments

• Global Trade Information Services (GTIS)

• HS code

440349 other tropical roundwood

440729 other tropical sawnwood

• Teak export data from Myanmar not

available. Myanmar exports have to be

assessed from imports of major teak

importing countries

Methodology

1) Trade Volume

China 10%

India 74%

Thailand 16%

Global teak imports (avg. 2005-2014) 1.07 million m3/yr, 487 million USD/yr

China India Thailand

Share of imports from Myanmar

455,000 m3 (43%)

Colombia

Panama

Costa Rica

Taiwan

Myanmar

84,580

China (m3/yr) from 6 major countries (>1000 m3/yr)

India (m3/yr) from 10 major countries (> 20,000 m3/yr)

Nigeria

Panama

Malaysia

Costa Rica

Ivory Coast

Ecuador

Myanmar

21,259

25,039

36,451

38,436

40,169

68,158

75,037

80,178

98,997

200,169

Teak imports to ...(avg. 2005-2014)

Roundwood imports by major countries Trend 2000-2014

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

China Thailand

557,000 m3

1.236 million m3

Share of imports from Myanmar to

China, India, Thailand, 2000-2014

Imports by China and India from Africa

and Latin America, 2000-2014

Africa

Latin America

Asia (w/o Myanmar)

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000m

Emerging roundwood traders

Africa (2000-2014) Latin America (2000-2014)

Ivory Coast

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Ecuador

Costa Rica

Panama

Colombia

2) Trade Value

Plantation logs, Panama Natural forest logs, Myanmar

Unit price of China imports 2005-2014

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Myanmar

Myanmar trendline +4.1%/yr

Africa Lat Am

Africa, Asia, Lat Am trendline +3.1%

Unit price of India imports 2005-2014

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Myanmar trendline +3.7%/yr

Myanmar

Africa

Lat Am

Africa, Asia, Lat Am trendline +4.5%/yr

3) Log Export Ban

China imports Jan 2012 to Dec 2014, by months

Volume Unit price Myanmar Laos

Log export

India imports from Africa Jan 2012 to Oct 2014, by months

Volume Unit price Ghana Benin Ivory Coast

Log export

India imports from Latin America Jan 2012 to Dec 2014, by months

Volume Unit price Ecuador Colombia

Costa Rica

Log export

Summary & Conclusions (1)

1. National customs data on teak imports according

to HS (Harmonized System)

2. Myanmar is a teak heavyweight - impact of log

export ban ?

3. Global trade in teak roundwood > 1 million m3/yr;

dominated by India, China and Thailand

4. Trade volume more than doubled since 2000,

trade value more than quadrupled

5. Emerging teak roundwood exporters:

Africa: Ghana, Ivory Coast, Benin, Togo, Nigeria

Lat Am: Ecuador, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia

6. Rise in prices: 3% to 4.5 % per year on average

since 2005

7. Global demand for teak expected to grow

8. Future belongs to teak plantations

9. Log export ban: different impact on imports into

China and India

Summary & Conclusions (2)

Thank you for your attention !

3rd World Teak Conference (WTC3)

Guayaquil, Ecuador, 12 May 2015

Global Teak Trade in the Aftermath of · 3. Global trade in teak roundwood > 1 million m3/yr;...

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