IAB Digital Morning 2015 - Mobile: ontem, hoje e amanhã - Felipe Mendes (Gfk)

transcript

DELIVERING CLARITY IN A DIGITAL WORLD

MOBILE: THEN, NOW

AND BEYONDGfK Digital Market Intelligence

Think Mobile First!

Please, tell me something new?...

Transformation in mobile eco-system

Global mobile

ad revenue: US $4.5bn in 2016,

+400% from 2011

Mobile is now the

primary means

of going online

for half of all mobile

web users.

Two smartphones

for every PC by

Global mobile

transactionsUS $617bn in 2016

4.3bn mobile

users in 2012 vs.

5.2bn mobile

users in 2017

Sources: Cisco, IDC, Forester, Gartner, InMobi, Foresee/Mobify, GfK

Mobile frees up people time to do what they need to do(other activities while reading news content on mobile devices)

44%Commute

33% Use

laptop

30%Music/

tablet

Study 9%

Read papers/magazines 9%

Cook 8%

Shop 6%

Source: GfK m-sites product research Australia 2013

THEN: Smartphones chosen as the “ideal” device

We initially thought that Mobile would mean Tablets

Source: GfK; Retail Channels/Consumer Demand; Computer & Media Tablets; 2007 to 2013

under 7 inch

tablets

has grown market share

within the PC&tablets

from 29% to 46% in 2013

while average price

has fallen 62%

from 630€ to 243€

in the last thtree years

suffered the biggest

loss of 12%

in market share in 2013

while the average price

has dropped 21%

from 612 € to 486€

in the last three years

13-17 inch

laptops

Until Q4’2014, when global Tablet shipments stalled...

Combined smartphone and tablet share of spending continues

to rise, but at a much lower pace for Tablets

100% Coverage incl. North+Middle America – GfK Trends and Forecasting 2015 forecast

20142015

forecast

Millions of units

SmartphonesTablets

Tablets are being eclipsed by Phablets

GfK Trends and Forecasting, total market including 2015 estimation

Phablet definition is a smartphone of screen size ranging from 5.6”-7”

Millions of units

TabletsPhablets

2013 2014 2015 forecast

2 main reasons... As always in Tech...

User experience

2012 2015

Lower-priced smartphones growing faster...

The low-end smartphone price band is growing at the expense of the high end

Charts contain actual sell-out data until 2014 for Global GfK covered countries

High-end smartphones ($500+)

($0-100) Low-end smartphones

Source: GfK; Global retail sales data

Tablet screen sizes were down… while video consumption was

booming…

January 2010 – December 2013 (sales units %)

10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13

Display size: 7<8 Display size: 8<9 Display size 9<10 Display size >10

Global Europe Mid East/Africa SE AsiaPac Greater China India South America

Smartphones became more and more Phablets...

GfK point of sales data (not including the US), sales units %

Screen size less than 3”

Screen size greater than 4”

Screen size between 3” and 4”

As a result, global smartphone screen average is 4.7 inches

Panel Market global key markets ex- NA, Sales units %

Global ex-NA W. Europe

China Developed Asia

Emerging Regions ex-China

Make/Receive

CallsSend/Receive

Photos

Access the

Internet

Listen Music

or Radio

Send/Receive

SMS Messages

93%Make/Receive Calls

51%Send/Receive Photos

87%Send/Receive

SMS Messages

45%Listen to Music/Radio

57%Access the Internet

We can say that smartphones are “also” used to make calls

Source: 2013 Roper Reports® Worldwide – Consumer behavior and attitudes in 31 markets

Number of interactions with smartphone per day

Smartphones are a natural extension of us

Today‘s smartphone user…

Source: GfK Crossmedia Link (MEP) June 2014; Multi-Screener Sample.

(= Measurement of internet usage on desktop and smartphone).

…unlocks his

smartphone 33 times a

…uses a monthly of 37 distinct

…visits 59 different

websites per month

…spends 244 minutes with gaming

on the phone per

From 2 billion "core Internet devices“ sold in 2014,

2/3 were smartphones

Global sales [million units]

Source: GfK Retail Panel

7 18 37 62 80 104 118 128 136 130 116 109 155 185 206 195 177 169 17 61 130 228 326

139 267

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FC

TV Desc PC/All in one Notebooks/Netbook Tablets Smart phones

NOW: a world of APPassionatos

More and more, mobile world is driven by apps

“The Internet” is becoming an old lady…

Crossing roads: (app based) media consumption on Phablets is

growing much faster than on other devices

SMARTPHONE APP

GfK SocioLog Mobile Global Study

Global DMI

a personal assistant who lives in the phone,

who helps solve all kinds of problems,

finding efficient ways of doing things.

An app means...

EntertainmentKilling

Information

gathering

Communication

5 main problems solved, on a daily basis

Convenience

Love poems about social networking and location apps

NOW: Mobile and Apps foster multi screen

behavior…

Multi device is a global reality

Use a tablet

65%Use a desktop

computer

Use a laptop

Use a smartphone

70%of people online use more

than one device to connect

Source: 2013 Roper Reports® Worldwide – Consumer behavior and attitudes in 31 markets

Multiple screens increase the time spent consuming content

Source: Media Efficiency Panel, Germany 2013

(minutes)

At the same time, “Online” goes TV…

Preview Android „L „for TV. Devices will be launched in 2015 by Sony. Sharp und TP Vision

Comprehensive integration…

• Live TV as an „App“ besides other VoD- and

entertainment offerings (gaming etc.)

• Personalized recommendations

• „Casting“ of content on TV-screen

…much more easy to use

• Voice-search and -navigation

• Mobile devices as remote control

Consequences:

• Online as separate medium will disappear – and is

evolving to an overall ecosystem for all media.

• Future measurement of audiences: ratings cross all

devices and platforms – for content and campaigns

GfK CROSSMEDIA LINK

Broaden the scope:

Single source measurement of Online within the TAM-panel

Going deeper:

Step by step inclusion of New Screens for a Total Video Currency

GfKs solution: Crossmedia link

#1 Enabling cross media measurement

Cross-media

exposure

Incremental reach

Advertising ReachDigital Journey

#2 Total Video

Ratings

Census-

Measurement of

Broadcasters,

Media-Players and

GfK Crossmedia Link is GfK‘s brand for Single Source Cross Media Measurement

On-device Meter

Search Queries

Search Results

Search Ads

Clicks (Ad & Other)

Display Ads

Content / Keywords

Videos

Pre rolls

Crossmedia Link

Hourly distribution of usage time

Measuring where “eyeballs” are over the course of the day

00 to06 h

06 to09 h

09 to10 h

10 to11 h

11 to12 h

12 to13 h

13 to14 h

14 to15 h

15 to16 h

16 to17 h

17 to18 h

18 to19 h

19 to20 h

20 to21 h

21 to22 h

22 to23 h

23 to24 h

Desktop Mobile Tablet TV

Crossmedia Link

Measuring how much online really adds exclusive reach and frequency to TV

Campaign X – excl./ incremental reach to TV % - persons 14+

TV reach:

TV and

online:

Online

exclusively:

18%In the overlapping group, the

OTS increase. Research

shows clear cross-media

effects leading to a higher

brand lift.

Crossmedia Link

Understanding which channels substantially boost reach

Genuine

Content

Native

Digital

Content

Digital

Campaigns

Total Video RatingsWhere we are heading to: Single reporting of total video

Single Measurement

• TV-sets within households

• Devices within online-panels

• Census Measurement within App/Media Player

Data Integration & Production

Single Reportings

(total)

TV Ratings

Digital

Content

Ratings

Digital

Campaign

Ratings

MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS 2015Understanding the mobile consumer: in touch with the future

Mobile World Congress 2015: the edge of innovation

Mobile World Congress 2015: redefining Mobile

Mobile encompasses much more than just ‘mobile’ as we traditionally have seen it.

No longer is the exciting news or even focal point of MWC new handset or tablet launches

(though these still exist).

• Rather, it’s about all of the other opportunities mobile connectivity now offers, including:

Connected

Wearable

Speeding up the

technology that

provides this

Highlights from “old mobile world”

Mid-end handsets with a mid-price range

Top tier Manufacturers developing this segment at last

Notable highlights:

LG – refreshed their mid-tier device line with Magna, Spirit, Leon and Joy.

Sony – confirmed their commitment to pushing mobile in the mid range,

showcasing mass-market devices Xperia M4 Aqua, and Xperia Z4 tablet

waterproofed to industry standard.

Microsoft – announced two new mid-range smartphones: a smaller 5 inch

Lumia 640 (in 3G or LTE 4G) and slightly larger 640 XL, along with Windows

10, integrating Skype as part of its universal apps platform.

Our insights:

Big brands have traditionally released high-end, premium price-point phones, but at MWC 2015 they revealed their

intention to compete in the increasingly expanding market for mid-end smartphones.

While the mid- and low-end is where growth is expected, the question is whether this is too late for the big brands.

Chinese manufacturers are already well-established in this category, and continue to attack at the mid- and low-end.

High-end tech with a mid-price range

Chinese manufacturers threaten the established order

Notable highlights:

Lenovo smartphones and Vibe Shot projector – smartphones retain support for

Dual SIM and 4G connectivity while projector is a hybrid between smartphone

and camera that takes photos in low light.

ZTE Grand 3 smartphone – contains an eye recognition system for confirmation

of user ID.

Our insights:

The majority of key announcements from Chinese manufacturers taking on higher-end smart devices took place at

January’s CES event. For example, the release of Xiaomi’s flagship Mi Note and Mi Note Pro models.

Constructed from premium materials and packed with branded technology (e.g. Sony camera), Xiaomi’s flagship proves

that offering high-end handsets at a mid-range price will win over consumers whose purchase considerations have

always revolved around known brands.

Mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) developments

Tech companies moving into operator business

Notable highlights:

• Google – announced to offer a wireless service blending Wi-Fi

(incl. Google's Fiber) and cellular networks together seamlessly.

Other key features they are aiming to do are e.g. reconnecting

dropped calls. Therefore the company plans to team up with

existing carriers. Likely partners are going to be Sprint & T-Mobile

(though Verizon & AT&T have been mooted too).

• Panasonic – appear to be looking to enter a very similar market,

by launching an MVNO aimed at M2M/IoT.

Our insights:

This supports their desire to ‘think of hardware, software, and connectivity together’ but will also support their advertising

business by improving targeting data.

Wireless charging

Notable highlights:

Ikea - launched phone-charging equipment including both individual charging pads, and

furniture (such as lamps and coffee tables) with built-in charging spots. The technology

uses the QI wireless charging standard, and is available across a wide-variety of

smartphones.

Starbucks and McDonald’s – now offer wireless charging in-store. McDonald’s offer also

utilised QI, while Starbucks offers wireless charging spots that embed Duracell

technology into tables in the San Francisco area.

Samsung - highlighted that its S6 handset is compatible with the QI standard and would

therefore be able to utilise this capability. It is also compatible with PMA, a rival wireless

charger solution.

Our insights:

Available across a wide-variety of smartphones, some of which are compatible across a variety standards, so consumers

will have lots of opportunity to utilise this new technology, in an easy and convenient way.

Smartwatches were also rumoured at MWC to be chargeable in this way but didn’t become a reality. Given recent news of

limited battery-life on recent smartwatch launches, extending the functionality of wireless phone-chargers to more devices

is set to enhance their appeal further.

Addressing consumer frustration with drained device battery

Operating systems (OS)

Beyond Android and iOS

Notable highlights:

• Tizen – promising start backed by Samsung and Intel. It’s the OS for Samsung’s new SmartTVs, its first Tizen based low-cost smartphone and its Galaxy Gear smartwatches. Tizen is also likely to play a role in smart home appliances.

• Firefox OS – the browser-based OS is moving towards wealthy markets through partnerships with Verizon, KDDI, Telefonica, etc. in 2016. More app developers may be attracted and support Mozilla's mission to break down the walls of Android and iOS by moving from native apps to web apps.

• Jolla's Sailfish – this looks surprisingly good compared to earlier versions. The Linux-based OS from Finland currently only runs on one single phone in Europe. The design can be also used on classic Android devices using a Sailfish app.

• Canonical's Ubuntu is also based on Linux with no phones available yet. It has some nice ideas on the user interface but definitely not ground breaking.

Our insights:

While the smartphone market is dominated by Android and iOS, followed by Windows Phone and Blackberry, there are

some good new operating systems on the way.

Cracking this dominance will be a major challenge though Tizen may have a good chance as TVs become more popular.

Available app selection and user experience will be the key barriers to overcome for widespread consumer adoption.

And what is going to define mobile in 2020

Augmented reality (AR)

A developing technology with disrupter potentialNotable highlights:

Metaio – a thermal tough device that makes any physical object around you touchable – ‘the world becomes your touchscreen’. For example, the user points an iPhone camera at the wall at an album cover; the user touches the album image on the wall andthe phone displays album information.

Google Tango – a Simultaneous Localisation And Mapping (SLAM) device with the aim of equipping every mobile device with a powerful suite of software and sensors that can capture a complete 3D picture of the world around it, in real time. LG will release a device using Tango-technology for consumers in 2015.

Fujitsu smartglasses – These smartglasses are be paired to a remote control (tied to the user’s arm) and to a smartphone, whose accompanying app consists in giving instructions depending on what the wearer sees through the camera.

Our insights:

Metaio will allow new methods of interaction with digital devices, allowing any surface to potentially become a new input device. It

is easy to see applications for this is gaming, but also retail and education.

Area mapping technology is still in its infancy. It is easy to see many potential applications for this tech, particularly in the B2B and

accessibility space. This is definitely one to watch over the next few years.

Fujitsu's smartglasses allow for a new layer of digital consumption, but this time with a distinctive B2B angle. Google Glass and

Microsoft Hololens have brought this technology into the mind of consumers, Fujitsu aim to capitalise on this with B2B applications.

Augmented reality is not yet part of the average consumer's daily life, but it is definitely on the way.

Mobile payments

Payments – notable highlights:

Establishing partnerships for mobile payment

Google announced Android Pay – an API (includes NFC) on which to develop

mobile payment solutions. Google Pay will itself be a client.

VISA – positioned themselves as the "payment engine underneath Apple Pay”,

partnering with Braintree, also functioning NFC.

Samsung Pay service launched on S6 – having recently acquired LoopPay, it

will support Magnetic Secure Transmission & NFC (indicating it supports both

Pin & Chip cards) in partnership with Visa; as per a past partnership with

Mastercard.

Mastercard – pioneering a digital ID programme with the Egyptian government

linking their citizens’ national ID to a mobile money programme, thereby creating

a secure mobile platform with a single cashless electronic platform for all.

Our insights:

The market is still very fragmented, and waiting for someone to take control and gain dominance. However, this requires

some ongoing partnerships between multiple players and it remains to be seen which ones will win through, especially

with so many other players (from mobile operators and banks, to messaging players and social networks) also involved in

the land grab.

Connected car

Partnerships are the key

Notable partnerships include:

• Vodafone & Porsche

• Qualcomm & Maserati

• Samsung & Seat

• LG & Audi

• AT&T & Cadillac

Our insights:

Seemingly one of the next great frontiers for tech manufacturers and networks alike, no longer are vehicles solely the

province of the auto manufacturer.

The use cases in terms of entertainment, safety, and economy are clear, but whether consumers are willing to pay the

premium for this remains open to question.

Key use cases remain around entertainment, safety, and economy, but some interesting developments include links with

the IoT and external sources, such as turning on your heating when you’re near home.

Smart home

From smart home to smart city

Notable highlights:

LG magic mirror – along with its household appliances control system ‘Home

Manager’, this mirror diagnoses the complexion of your skin.

Peel Pronto – partnering with Philips, Peel announced it’s expanding its range

of devices controlled by its smart remote app to locks, lighting, thermostats, etc.

Fujisawa Sustainable Smart Town – Panasonic is building a smart town near

Tokyo, and plans to transfer its best practices to other existing cities.

Our insights:

The real drive behind initial growth of smart homes and smart cities will be governments and municipal authorities.

The move of Panasonic to form the foundation of a true smart town is a clear start to a broader evolution to smart cities. Starting on a smaller scale will allow for better implementation and budget control, with incremental implementation of the aspects deemed most effective and efficient into existing living and breathing cities.

The road to the Internet of Things• Telefónica – unveiled its "Journey to 5G”,

highlighting in a presentation two key trends: the IoTand the "virtualization" of the future.

• European Commissioner for the Digital Economy and Society – Guenther Oettinger revealed that the EU has already joined a declaration with South Korea to create a single 5G standard, with hopes to include Europe, the US, Japan and China in the creation of international standards and infrastructure.

Our insights:

While 4G was about increased capacity and speed for consumers, 5G is focussed on the increasing number of machines that

are going to require network connections. The aim of 5G is to accelerate machine-to-machine communication, an essential

component in the IoT concept.

Tests on 5G services have already yielded a staggering 1Tbps connection. Governments, as well as tech companies, see 5G

as crucial for economic growth. As such, discussions about new business models for telco operators and different industries

based on 5G have already kicked off.

Nevertheless, investment in 4G is unlikely to end before 2020 so 5G – which will eventually power the connections of

driverless cars – is still a long way away.

Handset security

Fortifying for the era of the Internet of Things

Notable highlights:

Samsung – indicative of the focus on security at MWC, Samsung

gave almost as much prominence to Knox as the S6 handset. A

key element are the security features that enable business and

personal content to coexist on the same handset – much like

BlackBerry Balance.

Secure Circle – revealed the second version of its BlackPhone,

with its fortified Android OS, and suite of private apps.

Sikur GranitePhone – this is locked down so apps can't be

installed and enables encrypted text, voice, chat and email

communications.

Our insights:

We store increasing amounts of information on our smartphones, making our personal data vulnerable if these devices

are compromised. Unsurprisingly, therefore, security was a major theme of MWC.

If manufacturers want consumers to provide more information for all of the services they are providing, security has to

be key, particularly in the era of the Internet of Things. It is one thing to have your Facebook account hacked, but

another altogether if someone can break into your car, bank, or home.

Summarizing

Phablets

App’assionatos

Multiscreen

New mobile

Obrigado pela atenção!

IAB Digital Morning 2015 - Mobile: ontem, hoje e amanhã - Felipe Mendes (Gfk)

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