Introduction to Farming Futures - Claire Wyatt (Farming Futures)

transcript

Farm Water FuturesWhat can you do to make your business fit for the future?

30th March 2010

Claire WyattForum for the Future

Profitable business in a changing climate

Outline of presentation

• Why hold an event like today?• How does agriculture contribute to climate change?• The political landscape

• Opportunities and Risks • What are some farmers already doing?

What is Farming Futures?

Information and inspiration

• Partnerships• Fact sheets• Case studies• On-farm events• Media profile

So, why is everyone talking about climate change?

Figure: Changes in Central England Temperature from 1877 to 2006 relative to the average over the 1961-90 baseline period (about 9.5 ºC). (Source: Met Office Hadley Centre)

The indisputable truth…

Its warmer…>1°C

50% believe climate

change is having an effect now

50% believe climate

63% think climate

change will have an effect

in next 10 years

50% believe climate

63% think climate

change will have an effect

in next 10 years

31% are taking action to adapt to the impacts

of climate change

• Agriculture contributes 7% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions:

• < 1% of carbon dioxide (CO2)• ~ 1/3rd of methane (CH4)• ~ 2/3rds of nitrous oxide (N2O)

Agriculture and climate change

And it’s going to keep on changing…Max summer temperature by 2050 up 3-4°C

Average winter temperature

2020: +1.3°C

2050: +2.2°C

2080: +3°C

Medium emissions scenario –OPTIMISTIC!

High emissions scenario mean summer temp by 2080: +4.9°C

What about rainfall?Winter rainfall up 10-20% by 2050

2020: -8%

2050: -20%

2080: -24%

Summer rainfall

Medium emissions scenario –OPTIMISTIC!

High emissions scenario by 2080: -30%

The political landscape

Targets and action plans

• Renewable Energy Strategy - 15% total energy by 2020• 30-40% of our elec from renewables

• Low carbon transition plan – 11% by 2020• GHG Action Plan (Climate change task force)• Campaigns and services

• Act on CO2• Defra Advisory Service • Carbon Trust loans

• Food security• Increase production

Low Carbon Transition Plan

What about water?

• 1.3 million hectares of farmland in floodplains• 40% loss of produce (2007) – £7-19m• Climate change could increase demand for

irrigation by 50% by 2050• This is for all farmers

• Prices going up• Abstraction licences• Opportunities to save

Who’s here to help?

• Environment Agency - Water resources strategy• Environment Agency - Rainwater as a resource• Farming Futures - Water management fact sheet• UK Irrigation Association - reports and publications

• Improved efficiency and productivity

• Renewables

• Flood management

• Soil and Manure management

• Water management and harvesting

• Read the fact sheets and booklets!

What are farmers already doing?

Case study farmer – Elwyn Griffiths

Conclusions• Good news for UK farmers:

• Convergence of the food economy and the energy economy• Wider environmental goals • Global effects on world agriculture, and energy security issues• Potential for increased yields under warming + CO2• Cost savings via adaptation, efficiencies and mitigation tech

• Uncertainties remain:• Drought• Need to adapt and mitigate – costs and risks

• Plan for uncertainties through more conserved feeds and mix of crops and harvest / sowing times. Multi-purpose land use.

Any questions?

• www.farmingfutures.org.uk

• Claire Wyatt (project manager): c.wyatt@forumforthefuture.org.uk07825 2044340207 324 3670

Thank you!

Introduction to Farming Futures - Claire Wyatt (Farming Futures)

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