IPCC Climate Change: adaptation, mitigation and the statistical system The IPCC Fourth Assessment...

transcript

Climate Change: adaptation, mitigation and the statistical

system

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Peter Bosch

TSU IPCC WG III

IPCC Working group I, the physical science basis

• ….Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-21th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations…..

IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

• …. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases…..

IPCC Working group III, mitigation

• …. There is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades, that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels…..

G8 conclusions of the chair:

Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Energy Security:

……………... We noted with concern the recent IPCC report and its findings. We are convinced that urgent and concerted action is needed and accept our responsibility to show leadership in tackling climate change. ………….

Water availability projections: • 10-40% up in high latitudes & some wet tropical

areas• 10-30% down in dry regions in mid latitudes and

in the dry tropics

More drought, more flood risk

Crop productivity: • Projected to increase slightly at mid to

high latitudes (with +1-3 ºC) depending on the crop

• Projected to decrease at lower latitudes, esp. in seasonally dry and tropical regions, for even small temp. increases (1-2 ºC)

Adaptations: altered cultivars and planting times

Forestry: • Globally commercial timber

productivity projected to increase modestly in short-medium term

Fisheries: • Regional changes in distribution and

production of fish species. Adverse effects for aquaculture and fisheries

Settlements • Most vulnerable industries, settlements and

societies in coastal and river flood plains. Human health: • Increase in malnutrition• Increased death, injury, disease due to extreme

events• Increased burden of diarrhoeal disease• Altered distribution of infectious disease factors

Agricultural statistics

Forestry statistics

Fisheries statistics

Population statistics

Health statistics

Energy statistics

Summarising: with a view on adaptation to climate change

increasing interest in:

Between 1970 and 2004 global

greenhouse gas emissions have

increased by 70 %

Total GHG emissions

1970 1980 1990 2000 2004

GtCO2-eq/yr

IPCC Working group III, mitigation of climate change

Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor

With current climate change mitigation policies, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades

• IPCC SRES scenarios: 25-90 %

increase of GHG emissions

in 2030 relative to 2000 0

25th 5th

GtCO2eq/yr

A1B A1T B

th 5th A2

1B A1T B

th 5th

F-Gases

Economic mitigation potential until 2030 could offset the projected growth of global emissions, or

reduce emissions below current levels

• Both bottom-up and top-down studies

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes

BOTTOM-UP TOP-DOWN

Global economic potential in 2030

What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq mean?

• Crude oil: ~US$ 25/ barrel

• Gasoline: ~12 ct/ litre (50 ct/gallon)

• Electricity:– from coal fired plant: ~5 ct/kWh– from gas fired plant: ~1.5 ct/kWh

All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute (end-use based)

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

How can emissions be reduced?

Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. (Selected)

Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)

Energy Supply

efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)

CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewables (tidal and wave

energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)

(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.

Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable

batteries

Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.

Industry More efficient electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling; control of non-CO2 gas emissions

Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture

Buildings Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and airconditioners; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings

Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation

• Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings.

• Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systems

• Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport

What are the macro-economic costs in 2030?

Trajectories towards

stabilization levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

MedianGDP reduction

[1](%)

Range of GDP reduction [2]

Reduction of average annual GDP growth

rates [3] (percentage points)

590-710 0.2 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06

535-590 0.6 0.2 – 2.5 <0.1

445-535[4] Not available < 3 < 0.12

[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030.[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.

•Costs are global average for least cost approaches from top-down models

•Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages

There are also co-benefits of mitigation

• Near–term health benefits from reduced air pollution may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs

• Mitigation can also be positive for: energy security, balance of trade improvement, provision of modern energy services to rural areas, sustainable agriculture and employment

Stabilisation of GHG concentrations (radiative forcing) in the atmosphere and

emission reductions • The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global CO2

emissions have to peak

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq

C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq

B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq

A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilization targets:

Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min)

GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq

C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq

B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq

A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilization targets:

Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min)

GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

An effective carbon-price signal could realise

significant mitigation potential in all sectors • Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could

create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.

• Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation

• For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach 20-80 US$/tCO2eq by 2030

(5-65 if “induced technological change” happens)

• At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected

Investments

• Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions.

• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive.

The importance of technology policies

• The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) the greater the need for more efficient RD&D efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few decades

• Government support is important for effective technology development, innovation and deployment

• BUT, government funding for most energy research programmes has been declining for nearly two decades: now about half of 1980 level.

Environment statistics (emissions, waste management, environmental expenditures)

Energy balances Transport statistics (modal split, fuel use, types and length of

journeys)Land-use statistics (aff/deforestation) Agricultural & Forestry statistics: (energy crops production,

area changes, management changes)Trade statistics (flows of energy and energy crops) National Accounts (system integration to produce various

efficiency indicators, information for decomposition analysis, dedicated R&D expenditures

Summarising: with a view on mitigation

of climate change increasing interest in:

www.ipcc.ch

IPCC Climate Change: adaptation, mitigation and the statistical system The IPCC Fourth Assessment...

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