Post on 27-Mar-2015
transcript
Lessons learned from European referenda?
Claes H. de VreeseThe Amsterdam School of Communications
Research ASCoRUniversiteit van Amsterdam
www.claesdevreese.com
Paris EB 35 conference
NONE ?!
5 points to remember
• Referenda are good for ‘EU democracy’• Citizens generally like referenda, for different
reasons• The Yes camp repeats mistakes from
previous referenda
• It takes about 3 referenda to make them work• Campaigns matter and the EB is an
insufficient tool
Referenda are good for ‘EU democracy’
Highly visible events. # of news stories NL 2005
16.0
4.
19.0
4.
21.0
4.
23.0
4.
26.0
4.
28.0
4.
30.0
4.
03.0
5.
06.0
5.
09.0
5.
11.0
5.
13.0
5.
17.0
5.
19.0
5.
21.0
5.
24.0
5.
26.0
5.
28.0
5.
31.0
5.
April - June
0
30
60
90
120
150
Co
un
t
EU referendum story
yes
Citizens generally like referenda, for different reasons I
Cognitive mobilization
1. Higher educational groups are more supportive of referendums,
2. Higher levels of political interest are related to higher support
3. Higher political involvement (voted in last election) = higher support
Citizens generally like referenda, for different reasons II
Political disaffection
1. Dissatisfaction with the way democracy works = higher support
2. Low levels of political efficacy are related to higher support
3. Lower political involvement (not voted in last election) = higher support
4. Having voted for losing party (in last election) is related to higher support
5. Right- or left political ideology (as opposed to center orientation) are related to higher support
The Yes camp repeats mistakes from previous referenda
- Getting EU(rope) on the agenda- Elites, media and citizens- ‘legitimate’ arguments
It takes about 3 referenda to make them ‘work’
>> Absence and/ or ambiguity of elite cues
>> Lower importance ideology and party identification
>> Reshaping political space (left/right – pro/con)
>> Low knowledge levels
>> Issue framing
Campaigns matter …
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Yes
No
invalid
Vote intention time1
Volatility, vote switching
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
More than amonth
Final twoweeks
Last days
Election Day
No
Yes
Late decision making - Time of vote decision
>> 2005 referendum study NL
>> Media content analysis
- National and regional newspapers, national TV news and current affairs programs
- Time period: 6 weeks prior to the referendum / n=8353
>> Panel survey
- Internet panel (CentERdata); Tilburg University- Field dates: May 6-11 and June 3-8 (referendum on June 1)- Response rate: wave1 68% (n=1773); wave2: 81% (n=1915). Net panel sample n=1633
• Details in: Schuck, A. & de Vreese, C. H. (2008). The Dutch No to the EU Constitution: Assessing the Role of EU Skepticism and the Campaign. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 18 (1), 101-128.
… and the EB is an insufficient tool
Explaining vote intention (NO), time 1
+2,09
1. Age
2. Gender (female)
3. Government disapproval
4. EU skepticism
-,019-,391+,272
5. Political trust
-,723
Intention to vote
NO
6. Political knowledge
+,203
Nagelkerke Pseudo R2: .49 (n=1379)
1. Explaining vote intention (time 1)
Campaign effects on NO vote
Nagelkerke Pseudo R2: .48 (n=1379)
+,021
2. Cynicism about campaign3. Exposure NRC Handelsblad4. Exposure NOS Journaal
5. Exposure Hart van Nederland
+,303
-,023
-,016
6. Undecided about vote choice (time 1)
+1,81
Voting NO
7. Intention to vote NO (time 1)
+3,08
1. Watching referendum programs on TV
+,308
2. Campaign effects on vote choice
>> Characteristics of Dutch referendum: volatile electorate (considerable switching), very late decision making
>> Strong influence of both EU unrelated predispositions and EU integration related attitudes on voting NO
>> The campaign mattered I. - Cynicism about the campaign, watching of specific news shows had an effect on voting against the EU constitution
>> The campaign mattered, II. - Reading specific papers and watching NOS had an effect on voting in favor of the EU constitution
Conclusion
Cross-sectional past election survey (e.g. EB flash) not sufficient
5 points to remember
• Referenda are good for ‘EU democracy’• Citizens generally like referenda, for different
reasons• The Yes camp repeats mistakes from
previous referenda
• It takes about 3 referenda to make them work• Campaigns matter and the EB is an
insufficient tool
www.claesdevreese.com