MARGIN TOWERVic

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LABOR GREENSCOALITIONCA KAPINDEPENDENT

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22.6221.0420.7020.5319.8018.2117.8216.4516.4416.4215.8615.7415.3915.3115.1015.0414.6113.6112.8012.6812.5611.8111.6411.6311.5511.2411.0711.0611.0210.8710.189.629.339.159.158.988.388.197.817.517.417.387.077.016.796.446.126.005.394.884.694.564.543.953.633.593.433.393.373.222.712.302.051.691.651.441.141.071.040.730.630.63

0.020.030.681.031.111.211.221.432.192.312.912.932.983.333.803.873.964.024.214.384.454.814.935.405.525.605.686.006.096.317.117.367.527.537.678.148.198.208.208.308.308.338.438.578.859.019.949.94

10.4010.7010.7410.7911.0011.3011.4311.8412.1112.4612.9413.3213.5513.7213.8414.0514.1915.1215.3115.8217.1717.4917.5817.7718.4919.0419.1919.4819.5819.7319.79

* Margin over One Nation candidate ** Margin over independent candidate *** Margin over CA candidate# Margin over Greens candidate ## Margin over Coalition candidate

HERBERTCORANGAMITE (notionally Labor)

COWANDUNKLEY (notionally Labor)

LINDSAYMACNAMARAWENTWORTH

GRIFFITHMACQUARIE

BRADDONCHISHOLM

EDEN-MONAROISAACSPERTHLYONS

BENDIGORICHMOND

MORETONHOTHAM

COOPER #LONGMAN

DOBELLWILLS #

BASSINDI ##

JAGAJAGALILLEY

MCEWENSOLOMON

GREENWAYBURT

BALLARATFREMANTLE

MAYO ##PARRAMATTA

BLAIRLINGIARI

CORIOWERRIWAADELAIDE

BARTONMACARTHURHINDMARSH

KINGSFORD SMITHBEAN

OXLEYHOLT

SHORTLANDMARIBYRNONG

FRANKLINPATERSON

MAKINKENNEDY ##

RANKINBRAND

FENNERMCMAHON

HUNTERCANBERRA

CUNNINGHAMKINGSTONWHITLAM

NEWCASTLEBRUCELALOR

GELLIBRANDSYDNEY

GRAYNDLER #SPENCE

FOWLERWATSON

CLARK ##GORTON

MELBOURNE ##CHIFLEY

BLAXLANDSCULLIN

CALWELLFRASER

25 2520 2015 1510 105 5%

SEATMARGIN No. STATE

Labor requires a net gain of four seats to win majority government

There are 7 seats held by minor

parties and independents

Labor held 69 seats after the 2016

electionNow, it notionally holds 72 after a

redistribution turned two Liberal-held seats to Labor,

created two seats that are notionally

Labor-held and abolished one

Labor-held seat

New seats: Fraser, BeanRenamed seats:Melbourne Ports MacnamaraBatman CooperWakefield SpenceDenison ClarkAbolished seat:Port Adelaide

LABOR, MINOR PARTIES AND

INDEPENDENTS

COALITION

Coalition held 76 seats after the 2016 election. It now has 72 after it lost one in

a by-election and another through an

MP’s defection, while a

redistribution left two seats notionally

held by Labor

Every seat past 75 builds a majority in

the House of Representatives,

which will now have 151 seats

The Coalition requires a net gain of four seats to

return to majority government

Renamed seats:Murray NichollsMcMillan Monash

Wentworth: NSW (Independent 1.22%)

Inner eastern SydneySitting member: Kerryn Phelps Phelps won a narrow victory in October 2018 after the axing of Malcolm Turnbull, who had held the seat. Liberals are confident they can turn the tide this time.

Lindsay: NSW (Labor 1.11%)

Outer western Sydney based around PenrithLabor MP Emma Husar resigned after accusations of staff bullying. Expected Liberal win.

Indi: Vic (Independent 5.52%)

Regional seat in northern Victoria based around Wodonga, Wangaratta, Benalla and Euroa.Sitting member: Cathy McGowan (retiring)Liberals are confident of victory after McGowan’s departure.

Herbert: Qld (Labor 0.02%)

Regional seat covering TownsvilleSitting member: Cathy O’TooleO’Toole won by just 37 votes last time and the Liberals are confident the Adani coal issue is helping.

Solomon: NT (Labor 6.09%)

Urban electorate based around DarwinSitting member: Luke GoslingLiberals hope anger at NT Labor state government will produce victory.

SEATS TO WATCH | Expected to change hands

WHERE TO WATCH

ALL RIGHT ON THE NIGHT

LIBERAL GAINS

COALITION SEATS AT RISK

LABOR SEATS AT RISK

Sky News, from 5pm

Hosted by political editor David Speers, with Laura Jayes, Kieran Gilbert, Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt and Paul Murray. Guests include Alan Jones, Liberal powerbroker Michael Kroger, Liberal senator Mathias Cormann, Peta Credlin, Labor’s Richard Marles, Stephen Conroy and Graham Richardson.

Seven, from 5pmCoverage kicks off with live pre-news show. From 6.45pm, presenter Michael Usher

and political editor Mark Riley will lead coverage, alongside Labor’s Chris Bowen and Jenny McAllister, plus the Liberals’ Michaelia Cash and former MP Craig Laundy as well as broadcaster Alan Jones and Jeff Kennett.

Nine, from 5pmKicks off with an hour special election

coverage followed by its 6pm news. Election coverage continues at 7pm, hosted by Peter Overton and Deborah Knight, with chief political editor Chris Uhlmann. Plus former foreign minister Julie Bishop, Labor’s Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese and Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie.

Ten, from 5pmHosted by Sandra Sully, Chris Bath and Hamish Macdonald, along with presenter

Waleed Aly and The Australian’s contributing editor, Peter van Onselen. Plus, retiring Liberal minister Christopher Pyne, Labor senator Kristina Keneally, former Labor senator Sam Dastyari and Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman.

ABC, from 5pmJeremy Fernandez hosts a special one-hour edition of

the news. From 6pm, its election night live coverage kicks off with journalists Leigh Sales, Annabel Crabb, Andrew Probyn, Laura Tingle, Barrie Cassidy, Michael Rowland, Greg Jennett and Patricia Karvelas, with election analyst Antony Green. Guests include Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos and Labor’s Penny Wong.

SBS, from 10.10pmLed by chief political reporter Brett Mason,

with TV presenters Janice Peterson and Brett Mason.

All times AEST

Dunkley: Vic (Liberal but notionally Labor 1.03%)

Urban seat in Melbourne’s outer southeast Sitting member: Chris CrewtherA redistribution has made the seat marginally Labor. ALP gain.

Chisholm Vic (Independent, 2.91%) Eastern suburbs, Melbourne

Sitting member: Julia Banks (resigned)Banks quit the Liberals after Malcolm Turnbull was deposed and is contesting the nearby seat of Flinders as an independent makes this an ALP gain.

Swan, WA, (Liberal 3.59%) Urban PerthSitting member: Steve Irons.

Labor candidate is Hannah Beazley, daughter of Kim Beazley, who is favoured to win.

Cowper: NSW, (Nats, 4.56%)

Mid-north coast NSW stretching from Port

Macquarie to Coffs HarbourSitting member: Luke Hartsuyker (retired)Independent Rob Oakeshott is a formidable opponent for Nationals candidate Patrick Conghan. Too close to call.

Farrer: NSW, (Liberal, 20%)Rural seat from the Murray River to SA border

Sitting member: Sussan LeyAnger over water has triggered a revolt which could see independent Kevin Mack win. Ley is in real trouble here.

Gilmore: NSW (Liberal 0.7%)NSW south coastSitting member: Ann Sudmalis (retired)

The Liberals have chosen former Labor president Warren Mundine as their candidate, the Nationals Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor Fiona Phillips. Toss up.

Reid: NSW (Liberal 4.7%)Western Sydney.Sitting member: Craig Laundy (retired)

Laundy’s decision to retire has put the seat in play. The contest is an arm wrestle between psychologist Fiona Martin for the Liberals and Labor’s Sam Crosby. Must win for Scott Morrison.

Robertson: NSW (Liberal, 1.1%)NSW central coastSitting member: Lucy Wicks

Has gone with the party of government since 1980s. Another must-win for Morrison.

Warringah: NSW, (Lib, 11%)Sydney’s lower north shore and northern beaches

Sitting member: Tony AbbottOne of the battles of the campaign between Abbott and independent Zali Steggall.Too close to call.

Casey: Vic, (Liberal, 4.5%) Outer suburban and includes regional centres such as

Healesville and Warburton Sitting member: Tony Smith Smith, the speaker of the House of Representatives, seems set to hang on after initial fears.

Higgins: Vic (Liberal, 7.8%)Inner eastern MelbourneSitting member:

Kelly O’Dwyer (retiring)Liberal candidate Katie Allen

faces a strong challenge from the Greens, who are running gay AFL player Jason Ball. Greens likely to fall just short.

Corangamite: Vic, (notionally Labor, 0.03%)Outer southern

Geelong and Great Ocean RoadSitting member: Sarah HendersonScott Morrison has thrown everything at this seat and it will come down a few hundred votes. If he can can’t win this one, he likely can’t win government.

La Trobe: Vic (Liberal, 3.2%)Outer suburban covering Dandenong to

Narre Warren and Pakenham southeast of MelbourneSitting member: Jason Wood The tide is against the Coalition in Victoria and Wood has a fight on his hands.

Forde: Qld (LNP, 0.63%)Outer metropolitan

based around Logan City Council Sitting member: Bert Van ManenThe LNP has been struggling here.

Flynn: Qld (LNP, 1.1%)Regional seat including Gladstone and

Emerald in central QueenslandSitting member: Ken O’DowdLabor’s Zac Beers is mounting a strong challenge to the veteran O’Dowd. Too close to call.

Petrie: Qld (LNP, 1.6%)Outer metropolitan on Brisbane’s north

Sitting member: Luke HowarthThis seat has gone with government in every election since 1984. One to watch.

Dickson: Qld (LNP, 1.7%)Northwest outer BrisbaneSitting member:

Peter DuttonGetUp has targeted Dutton and Labor has put up Ali France, a former journalist and disability advocate. Will be close, but Dutton looks to have the edge.

Hasluck: WA, (Liberal, 2.1%)Eastern Perth Sitting member: Ken Wyatt

Labor candidate James Martin expected to fall short.

Pearce: WA (Liberal, 3.6%)Urban-rural electorate that includes Perth’s

northern suburbsSitting member: Christian PorterLabor is mounting a strong campaign here against the Attorney-General and has hopes.

Stirling, WA (Liberal 6.1%)Inner northern PerthSitting member:

Michael Keenan (retired)Keenan’s retirement has opened the gate for Labor.

Braddon, Tas (Labor, 2.31%)Northwest and western coastal Tasmania

Sitting member: Justine KeayKeay has voiced concerns over Labor’s franking credits policy. Malcolm Turnbull couldn’t win this in last year’s by-election but the Libs are in the fight this time.

Bass, Tas (Labor, 5.4%) Northeast Tasmania.Sitting member: Ross Hart

This volatile seat has switched members in eight of its last nine elections. It’s enough to make any MP nervous.

Longman: Qld (Labor, 4.45%)Outer urban, incl Caboolture north of Brisbane

Sitting member: Susan LambThe Liberals have late hopes in Longman after the disappointment in last year’s by-election, where Lamb increased her margin. Could be a surprise on the night.

LABOR GAINS

YOUR GUIDE TO

ONLINE, ON YOUR MOBILELIVE BLOG for up-to-the-minute newsSID MAHER calls the seats as they fallLIVE graphic updatesThe ultimate second-screen experience of the count on your desktop, laptop or mobile

ONLINE TONIGHT

www.theaustralian.com.au

SID MAHER

Election night is a bit like a rollercoaster ride. It usually starts slow before a few radical twists and turns either bring on a feeling of euphoria or nausea depending on how you are enjoying the ride.Polls close at 6pm on the east coast and apart from a few exit polls, there isn’t a lot of action until around 6.30pm when the first results come in. Small booths often get counted first and there can be some wild swings as the early votes are counted.Tasmania is usually the first state to give a solid trend. As the only state where the Liberals have nothing to lose this year and Labor is defending Braddon (2.31%), Lyons (3.8%) and Bass (5.4%), Coalition supporters will be hoping for some gains here.Seats in Queensland, NSW and Victoria take longer to show meaningful trends, which usually begin to emerge between 7pm and 8pm. With political insiders tipping a tight contest, this year may take longer. Labor supporters will be paying close attention to Victoria, where the Coalition is expected to lose Dunkley, after the redistribution and Chisholm held by Julia Banks, who quit the party and became an independent after the axing of Malcolm Turnbull. Another seat to watch early is Indi, where sitting independent Cathy McGowan is retiring. The Coalition is expected to regain this seat.

The most contested seats here are likely to be Corangamite (nominally Labor after a redistribution by 0.03%) and La Trobe (3.22%) in Victoria, and the results here may not be known until late in the night.In Queensland, early contests to watch include the Liberal seats of Dickson and Petrie, both marginal Liberal and expected to be held by the Coalition. If these seats fall to Labor, Bill Shorten is well on his way to victory. If they hold, attention later in the night is expected to fall to Herbert (Labor, 0.02%) and Longman (Labor 4.45%), where the Coalition has claims. Labor best prospects look to be Flynn (1.04%) in central Queensland and Forde (0.63%) south of Brisbane.In NSW, the Coalition has hopes in the Labor seat of Lindsay (1.11%) and Wentworth (1.22%). But Labor has high hopes in Gilmore (Lib 0.73%) and Robertson (1.14%) while the safe seat of Farrer (Lib 20.53%) could fall to an independent.Potential wildcards include Cowper (Nat, 4.56%) where Rob Oakeshott is a strong chance, Warringah in Sydney’s north where independent Zali Steggall is challenging Tony Abbott and Higgins in inner Melbourne where the Greens are challenging the Liberals.By 8pm if the election is still tight, all eyes will turn to WA, where the Liberals are defending Hasluck (2.05%), Swan (3.59%), Pearce (3.63%) and Stirling (6.12%). Only the seat of Cowan (ALP, 0.68%) appears to be in play.