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8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership
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Negotiating RiceJapans Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Lisa Jrke
IRRI Division Seminar, 11 April 2014
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How are international trade negotiations
and farmers livelihoods connected?
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The Trans-Pacific Partnership
BruneiChileNew ZealandSingapore
United StatesAustraliaPeruVietnamMalaysiaMexico
CanadaJapan
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Two-level games (Robert D. Putnam 1988)
Gentansystem of acreage control
Producer price support
High import tariffs (778% for rice)
High consumer prices
Rice production in Japan
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Overaged farmers
Low farming incomes
Many part-time farmers
High land fragmentation
Rice production in Japan
Land ownership in hectares, 2010
2.0
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How did Japan join the TPP?
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Two-levelgames (Putnam 1988)
Negotiation processes taking place on two levels:
I International (negotiators)
II Domestic (President, political parties, business, interestgroups, public)
An agreement on level I must be ratified on level II.
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International trade rounds pushing for more liberalisation in
agriculture (Uruguay and Doha rounds of the GATT/WTO)
Overall regional liberalisation and high-level trade agreements
(KORUS, etc.)
Rise of China and other economic powers in the region
Pressure from the US and Mexico (beef and citrus), as well as fromAustralia (dairy)
Level I: International trade dynamics
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Why did Japan join the TPP?
Voting system tilted towards rural votes
farmer support from all parties
Influential agricultural cooperatives (JA)
Special interest politicians
But also strong business elite, powerful METI
Volatile public
Historically weak Prime Minister
Level II: Domestic politics in Japan
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Why did Japan not join earlier?
November 2010 First statement by Naoto Kan aboutpreliminary consultations with TPP memberstates
November 2011 Renewed confirmation to hold
consultations by Yoshihiko Noda
March 2013 Final announcement of Japans
participation in the TPP by ShinzAbe
How did Japan join the TPP?
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Naoto Kan
Strong resistance within the DPJ and
from the opposition
Unpopular after announcing a tax
reform and 3/11
Yoshihiko Noda
Sealed his political fate with the tax
reform
Domestic dynamics
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ShinzAbe
Very stable minority in the Diet
High popularity withAbenomicspolicy
Less dependence on farmersvotes
Domestic dynamics
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LostDecades
Low FTA coverage
Fear to fall behind economically compared to othereconomies in the region
Proactive Asia policy by US President Obama
Foreign pressure (gaiatsu)
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So what makes the difference?
Political system
Other policy issues
Role of public support
Issue linkage
Foreign pressure
Preliminary conclusions
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What does it mean for rice farmers?
Japanese agriculture needs to be modernised with or without the TPP
The TPP may necessitate agricultural reform as existing policies protecting
farmers will have to be changed
Butliberalisation does not automatically entail reform
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