PREV ’AIR :An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecasting

www.prevair.org

presented by Laurence Rouïl

PREV ’AIR : www.prevair.orgA cooperative system for large scale air quality forecasting and mapping over Western Europe and France ; developed in 2003 upon an initiative of the Ministry of EcologyOperational purposes : in France, since 2004, public information related to pollution episodes (threshold exceedances) can be driven by forecasts (not only observations)

INERIS

ADEME

CNRS

Météo Franc

e

Public organization under the supervision of the Ministry of

Ecology

National Agency of Environment

National Research Centre

National Meteorological services

Builds up and hosts the prev ’air systemAQ expertise for the Ministry

Builds up and hosts the NRT databaseAQ expertise for the Ministry

Model development : CHIMERE

Model development : MOCAGE +meteorological forecasts

Architecture of the PREV’AIR Modelling System

3D Chemistry Transport Models...• CHIMERE / IPSL-CNRS-INERIS• MOCAGE / METEO-France• open system to other models...

… Driven by meteorological forecasts• AVN / NCEP global data (+ MM5

higher resolution forecasts)• ARPEGE, ALADIN

Other input data• Emissions inventory (EMEP)• BC (MOZART)• Land-use (GLCF data base)• NRT observations data from local AQ

monitoring organizations (AASQA) ; bilateral cooperation with other countries

Chemical forecasts

Low and high resolution meteorological forecasts

Numerical AQ forecast data

Forecasts (maps)

BASTER

Analysis (maps)

Observations (maps)

Emilia Romagna (ARPA-EMR) Swiss (NABEL/SAEFL) Germany (UBA)... A S QA A

The CHIMERE Model Set-Upin PREV’AIR

• Domains Over Europe Over France

Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa

• Meteorological forecast data AVN / NCEP for initialisation and boundary conditions MM5 higher resolution forecasts ARPEGE

• Chemical scheme MELCHIOR (47 species, 125 reactions)

• Aerosol module 7 species (PPM, SOA, nitrate, sulphate, ammonium, Water Contents, dust) 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase)

See http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere.

The MOCAGE Model Set-Upin PREV’AIR

Domains» Global Model / Over Europe / Over France

Horizontal resolution: 4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hPa

Meteorological forecast data ARPEGE and ALADIN

Chemical scheme RACMOBUS (118 species, 381 reactions)

No aerosol module

• Available at D+0, 00 h LT

• Daily peak and averaged concentration maps

D+0, D+1, D+2

• Pollutants: O3, NO2 (France and Europe)particulate matter (Europe)

O3, peak forecast (µg/m3)

20040729 D+0

O3, peak forecast (µg/m3)

20040729 D+2

O3, peak forecast (µg/m3)

20040729 D+1

PREV’AIR Outputs : Daily Forecasts

Modelled concentrations corrected with observations: Observations collected in real-time for 150

stations Statistical adaptation using a kriging method Available at J+0 with updates if near real time

observations available Feasibility study for the PM

PREV ’AIR Outputs : Ozone Analyses for the Day Before and the Current Day

July 31, 2004

O3 simulation (µg/m3) O3 corrective field (µg/m3)

03 simulation corrected by observations (µg/m3)

PREV ’AIR Outputs : French maps of near real time observations

Daily mean concentrations of PM10 at surface measured on the 12 of September 2004

maps of daily max and mean

measured concentrations :

for O3, NO2, PM2.5 and PM10

using observations made

between 0h and t

hour by hour updating if data

available (pollution events)

for J and the 6 previous days

PREV’AIR Outputs : Scores

PM10 scores

PREV’AIR Outputs : Scores (ii)

PREV ’AIR Outputs : Annual BudgetsOzone, averaged peak (µg/m3)

during summer 2003Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the

180 µg/m3 threshold during summer 2003

Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the 240 µg/m3 threshold during summer

2003

PREV ’AIR Outputs : Numerical Forecast Data

• PREV’AIR numerical data Extraction over user-defined domains Available through the Internet for AQ related institutions (user accounts)

• Applications 3D data: BC for local AQ simulations : ESMERALDA (Ile-de-France area), AERES (PACA region), … 2D data: for local AQ monitoring and forecasting (interpolation, statistical modelling)

• Feed-back from PREV’AIR users Meetings with AQ networks for system improvement Day-by-day debriefing about forecasts

Towards a european framework….

• Bilateral cooperation for data exchange (NRT) and simulated results evaluation

• Involvement in the GMES programs:PROMOTE (ESA) : demonstrator (phase 1), definition of air

quality services related to forecasting and mapping (phase 2), definition of a cooperative framework (with other european AQ teams)

GEMS (UE) : Contribution to the Air Quality part

Developments planned (1)

July 2005 : Implementation of data assimilation methods of ozone ground level measurements in the PREV’AIR system Improvement of forecasts and mapping.

August 2005-2006 :  feasibility study related to the operational acquisition of ozone data from LIDARs or of satellite data in the PREV’AIR system. Improvement of the whole system taking into account 3D information

End 2005 : Feasibility of a cooperative exchange network related to near real time AQ data as this is done for France in the PREV’AIR system Near real time air quality maps in other countries?

Developments planned (2)

Implementation of nested methods to couple the models MOCAGE (applied over the whole Europe) and CHIMERE (applied over the western part of Europe) in order to obtain more realistic boundary conditions for PREV’AIR forecasts.

Case study to generate « ensemble » forecasts over France and Europe issued from the results given by MOCAGE and CHIMERE (multi-models approach)

Conclusions on the possibility, relevance, and feasibility of the implementation of a common and european air quality forecasting system in cooperation with the other PROMOTE partners

www.prevair.org

Thank you for your attention!