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Colloque « pollutions olfactives »• 08/02/05 • •
Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework
Laurence ROUÏLDirection des Risques chroniques
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
Introduction and Context
o INERIS acts as a technical support of the Ministry of Ecology : Support for the definition of national environmental regulations, Participation to European normative work, Participation to European working groups devoted the definition of future policies
o Within the framework of air quality…. Since 1979 : Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) :
UN -ECE Since 2002-2003 until july 2005: CAFE program (EU) ; definition of the « Air
Quality Thematic Strategy » defining the main purposes of the future european legislation
Since 2005 until July 2006: Review of the National Emission Ceilings Directive Several working groups (EU and UN-ECE) devoted to air quality monitoring
(measurements) and normative aspects
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
UN-ECE : Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, INERIS involvment Organe Exécutif
(représentants des Parties)
Pays chef de file
Centre de Coordination modélisation intégrée
Centres de Coordination• Substances chimiques• Synthèse météo Est et Ouest
PIC = Programme International ConcertéTF = Task Force (équipe spéciale)
Comité d'application
centre de coordination
Groupe de Travail sur les EFFETS
PIC Modélisation et Cartographie
PIC Suivi Intégré sur les écosystèmes
PIC Forêts
TF Santé Humaine
PIC Matériaux
PIC Végétation
PIC Eaux
Organe Directeur EMEP Groupe de Travail STRATEGIES
TF Inventaires d'Emis-sions et prévisions
TF Mesures et Modélisation(transferts atmosphériques)
TF Modélisation Intégrée(Optimisation économique
des scénarios)
Groupe d’experts sur les POPs
Groupe d’experts sur l‘ammoniac
Réseau NEBEI(Economique)
Réseau EGTEI(Technico-économique)
Groupe d’Experts sur les Métaux
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
Use of Air quality modelling…..Air quality mapping :
• Acidification/Eutrophisation effects• Ground level ozone• POPs and HM• PM purposes (since 2004)
Trends analysis : •As a complementary tool of measurement stations
Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) :
• Evaluation of the environmental and health effects of Air Quality Policies with respect to their cost• Sources/receptor matrices calculations all over Europe• Uncertainties analysis
EMEP (MSC-West) and RAINS (IIASA) models are the « official »tools in the European framework
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
French contribution for AQ modelling
o To check the EMEP results for base cases (current situation) but also for emission reduction scenario runs (2010-2020) through models intercomparison exercises
TFMM intercomparison project (TNO) : comparison against observations City-Delta project (CAFE) : downscaling purposes Eurodelta Project (TFMM) : source/receptor matrices evaluation
o To help to define alternative emission reduction policies Efficiency of the national emission ceilings approach? Relevance of sectoral approach? Geographical heterogeneity
o To contribute to the development of European tools See City-Delta consequences
CHIMERE is used since 2001 by INERIS to develop the french expertise and involvment on the modelling aspects….
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
TFMM intercomparison exercise - 2003 Organized by the TNO (NL) Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km modelling. Models involved : EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), DEHM
(D), CHIMERE (F)Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)-NMSE O3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
S0
01
S0
06
S0
15
S0
21
S0
30
S0
41
S0
48
S0
58
S0
66
S0
75
S0
83
S0
91
S1
02
S1
09
S1
14
S1
21
S1
27
S1
32
S1
39
S1
45
S1
53
S1
60
CHIMERE
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)-Corrélation O3
Resultats O3….0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1CHIMERE
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
BE
BE
BE
CH
CH
CH
CH
CZ
CZ
CZ
CZ
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
UK
NL
NL
NL
NL
CHIMERE0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
CHIMERE
1:1 line
PM10 (a) corrélations (b) scatter plots/observations
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
CITY-DELTA exercise Organized by IIASA and JRC (Ispra) for the CAFE program
Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km regional modelling and 5km*5km local modelling.
Base case and emission reducion scenarios
Models involved in the « part 2 »: EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), CHIMERE (F) to model the situation over Paris, Milan Prague and Berlin areas
Consequences:
Model intercomparison over cities areas
Evaluation of the robustness of the modelling approach for regulatory purposes
Statistical definition of « urban signals », for PPM2.5, to be implemented in RAINS as a correction of regional EMEP results over cities areas
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
EURODELTA exercise
Organized by the TFMM and MSC-W
Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km regional modelling and sources/receptor matrices computations
Models involved in the « part 2 »: EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), CHIMERE (F)
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
NOx total deposition:
- « hot spots » computed with MATCH
- Lower values for LOTOS
-CHIMERE and EMEP very similar
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
CHIMERE - EMEP
O3 - 2020 + Italian reduction
NOx scen
VOC scen
Differences from the « base case » transposed to the others
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
Further applications : french analysis of emission reduction policies
Looking for new emission reduction hypothesis (2010-2020), as an alternative solution to national emission ceilings…
French runs made with CHIMERE
….Compared to results given by « EMEP-Unified »
Sectoral approach : cooperation with CITEPA and economists team
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
Pollutants : SO2, NOx, COV, NH3
Référence : 2000
CLE : Current Legislation Emissions ; IIASA (Autriche)GOT + NEC : Goteborg Protocol outside EUOPTINEC : french emission projections for 2010 (CITEPA)
Example : National scenarios for 2010
SO2 NOx COV NH3
2000
CLE
Optinec
GOT + NEC
654 1441 1726 784
400 858 1100 791
461 990 953 857
375 810 1050 780
(ktonnes)
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
Mean of daily ozone peaks…. Consequences for a 2003 year like
180-190 g/m3
• 21/03/05
CHIMERE Workshop• •
nb d'heures cumulées de dépassement de 120 micg/m3
0200000400000600000800000
1000000
base
S1=Eff.
Com
.
S2 =
S1+tra
f
S3=S1+
ind
S4 =
S1+ te
rtS11
S21 S31 S41
120 micg/m3
Nb d'heures de dépassement des seuils 180 et 240 mic/m3
02000400060008000
10000120001400016000
base
S1=Eff.
Com
.
S2 =
S1+traf
S3=S1+
ind
S4 =
S1+ tert
S11
S21 S31 S41
180 micg/m3
240 micg/m3
nb d'heures de dépassement des seuils 180 et 240 micg/m3 hors cas de base
0500
10001500200025003000
S1=Eff.
Com
.
S2 =
S1+tra
f
S3=S1+
ind
S4 =
S1+ te
rtS11
S21 S31 S41
Série1
Série2
Could a sectoral approachbe efficient?….