PREV ’AIR :An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecastingwww.prevair.org

Laurence ROUÏL

Built for operational purposes:

In France public information related to pollution episodes (threshold exceedances) can be driven by observations but also by forecasts since 2004

The system : a cooperative system for air quality monitoring, forecasting and mapping over Western Europe and France ;

set up in 2003 by:

Model development : MOCAGE

Meteorological forecastsNational Meteorological servicesMétéo France

Model development : CHIMERENational Research CentreCNRS

Builds up and hosts the NRT database

AQ expertise for the MinistryNational Agency of EnvironmentADEME

Builds up and hosts the prev ’air system

Model development : CHIMERE

AQ expertise for the Ministry

Public organization under the

supervision of the Ministry of EcologyINERIS

PREV’AIR : www.prevair.org

Architecture of the PREV’AIR System

3D Chemistry Transport Models... CHIMERE / IPSL-CNRS-INERIS MOCAGE / METEO-France open system to other models...

… Driven by meteorological forecasts: AVN / NCEP global data (+ MM5 higher

resolution forecasts) ARPEGE, ALADIN

... Using input data: emissions inventory (EMEP) boundary conditions (LMDZ-INCA/GOCART) land-use (GLCF data base)

NRT observation data: BASTER/ADEME NRT database centralizes

data from 40 French local AQ monitoring networks

bilateral cooperation with other partners

Chemical forecasts

Low and high resolution meteorological forecasts

Numerical AQ forecast data

Forecasts (maps)

French NRT data (BASTER)

Analysis (maps)

Observations (maps)

Others partners NRT data

...

available at D+0, 00 h LT on the web site

daily peak and averaged concentration maps

for D+0, D+1, D+2

pollutants: O3, NO2 (France and Europe) and PM (Europe)

O3, peak forecast (µg/m3)

20040729 D+0

O3, peak forecast (µg/m3)

20040729 D+2

O3, peak forecast (µg/m3)

20040729 D+1

PREV’AIR outputs: daily forecasts

PREV’AIR numerical data

extraction over user-defined domains

available through the Internet for AQ related

institutions (user accounts)

http://www.prevair.org/en/donneesnumeriques.php

Applications

AQ information on public French channels (TV)

direct use for a local information (GIS)

input data for local modelling purposes :

ESMERALDA (Paris + 6 regions)

AERES (Marseille region), etc …

PREV’AIR outputs: numerical forecast data

http://www.esmeralda-web.fr

http://www.airmaraix.com/html/emimod_acri_frm.htm

PREV’AIR NRT observation data

National web site PREV ’AIR

39 French AQ related organisms (AASQA)

"real time" national database BASTER

AASQA web sites

Local servers

680 monitoring stations

hour

LOCAL NATIONAL

O3

NO2

SO2

PM10

PM2.5

Daily mean concentrations of PM10 at surface measured on the 12 of September 2004

Maps of daily max and mean measured concentrations :

for O3, NO2, PM2.5 and PM10

using observations made

between 0h and T time

hour by hour updating if data

available (pollution events)

for D day and the 6 previous days

PREV’AIR outputs: maps of French NRT data

Modelled concentrations corrected with observations:

Observations collected in real-time for 150 stations (ozone)

Statistical adaptation using a kriging method

Available at J+0 with updates if near real time observations available

Operational for ozone since 2004 and for PM10 in 2006

For the day before and the current day

July 31, 2004

PREV’AIR outputs: analyzed maps immediately available for information (web sites, media…)

=

O3 simulation corrected by observations (µg/m3)

O3 simulation (µg/m3)

+

observations

PREV’AIR outputs: scores (forecast quality)

PREV’AIR outputs: time series (forecast quality)

PREV’AIR outputs: time series (forecast quality)

Obs. CFM MOCAF

Moy Nobs Moy Biais RMSE Var Corr Moy Biais RMSE Var Corr

D+0, stations rurales

France 106.2 4235 106.3 0.1 19.1 0.86 0.82 110.7 4.5 25.7 0.96 0.70

CENTRE 108.7 428 99.1 -9.6 16.0 0.83 0.84 106.0 -2.7 19.5 0.98 0.67

GBP 103.1 881 105.5 2.4 17.9 1.05 0.87 113.1 9.9 28.0 0.97 0.68

N 90.0 621 99.7 9.7 20.9 0.92 0.82 89.2 -0.8 26.5 0.77 0.58

NE 104.4 694 106.1 1.6 16.8 0.82 0.87 111.3 6.9 24.3 0.77 0.72

O 96.5 300 99.7 3.2 12.8 1.00 0.89 98.7 2.2 19.9 1.01 0.73

RHONEALPES 119.3 246 111.3 -8.0 19.9 0.79 0.79 119.3 0.0 24.9 0.89 0.62

SO 102.4 364 105.9 3.5 18.4 0.96 0.74 104.2 1.8 21.7 0.99 0.64

SSE 126.2 701 119.2 -7.0 24.3 0.69 0.71 134.5 8.3 30.3 1.06 0.63

D+0, stations périurbaines

France 103.2 9127 105.8 2.6 18.2 0.89 0.84 108.6 5.4 26.9 0.96 0.67

CENTRE 104.6 510 99.4 -5.3 14.9 0.77 0.84 103.1 -1.6 19.6 0.90 0.68

GBP 101.6 1231 104.4 2.8 16.9 0.97 0.86 111.8 10.2 26.1 0.89 0.69

N 91.7 2231 99.3 7.6 21.8 0.97 0.81 93.8 2.1 27.5 0.80 0.61

NE 105.4 1811 106.9 1.5 16.2 0.86 0.89 107.7 2.2 25.6 0.73 0.68

O 96.0 1035 101.6 5.7 14.4 1.00 0.88 100.7 4.7 20.8 0.95 0.70

RHONEALPES 115.5 623 111.4 -4.0 20.2 0.75 0.83 125.8 10.4 28.7 1.00 0.71

SO 100.2 270 106.7 6.5 17.6 1.01 0.80 107.7 7.5 25.8 1.22 0.64

SSE 119.6 1416 118.6 -1.0 18.2 0.83 0.78 130.8 11.2 32.9 1.27 0.58

Models evaluation and performances

PREV’AIR outputs: archives and budgetslong term analysis

Ozone, averaged peak (µg/m3) during summer 2003

Involvement in the GMES program (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) :

PROMOTE (ESA) = PROtocole MOniToring for the GMES service Element on

atmospheric composition

phase 1: demonstrator

phase 2: definition of air quality services related to forecasting and mapping;

definition of a cooperative framework (with other European AQ teams)

GEMS (EU) = Global and regional Earth-system (atmosphere) Monitoring using

satellite and in-situ data

contribution to the Air Quality part for the development of data assimilation methods and

ensemble forecasts

Towards an European framework...

=> Looking for bilateral cooperation with other European partners :

for NRT data exchange : necessary to build analyzed maps and to evaluate

the simulated results (Italy, Germany, Belgium)

(contact: nathalie.poisson@ademe.fr)

for forecasts or analyzed maps: users accounts could be available to

download over specific areas

(contacts: laurence.rouil@ineris.fr ; cecile.honore@ineris.fr)

Towards a European framework...

www.prevair.org

END…. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!END…. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREV’AIR

Domains: over Europe over France Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa

Meteorological forecast data AVN / NCEP for initialization and boundary conditions MM5 higher resolution forecasts ARPEGE

Chemical scheme MELCHIOR (47 species, 125 reactions)

Aerosol module 7 species (PPM, SOA, nitrate, sulphate, ammonium, Water Contents, dust) 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase)

See http//euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere

PREV’AIR 3D chemistry transport models

The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREV’AIR

Domains Global Model / Over Europe / Over France Horizontal resolution: 4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hPa

Meteorological forecast data ARPEGE and ALADIN

Chemical scheme RACMOBUS (118 species, 381 reactions)

No aerosol module

PREV’AIR 3D chemistry transport models