Post on 03-Apr-2018
transcript
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
1/76
Frederick R. Demler, Ph.D.Global Head, LME Metals
Metals Market Outlook, 2012-2013Supply, Demand, Inventories, Institutional Demand, Prices
INTL FCStone Inc. | www.intlfcstone.com1
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
2/76
Disclaimer
This presentation is issued by FCStone LLC. FCStone LLC is an affiliate of INTLFCStone (Europe) Limited IFEL, a company registered under the laws of England &Wales with its head office at Moor House, 1st Floor, 120 London Wall, EC2Y 5ET,
United Kingdom and which is authorised and regulated by the Financial ServicesAuthority. FCStone LLC and IFEL are subsidiaries of INTL FCStone Inc. IFEL is aCategory 1 ring dealing member of the London Metal Exchange LME and offersLME products through its affiliate FCStone LLC, from its New York office, pursuantto Part 30.10 of the rulebook of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission(CFTC), relating to the offer and sale of foreign futures and options contracts to
customers located in the United States by firms located in the UnitedKingdom. Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand thoserisks prior to trading. Neither the information, nor any representation shall beconstrued as an investment advice or an offer to buy or sell futures, options onfutures, or any OTC products. The presentation also contains information providedto us by third parties such as the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, ConsensusEconomics, ILZSG, IAI, LME, CME, SHFE, and Barclay Hedge. Whilst we havetaken all reasonable steps to ensure the information is in this presentation is correct,neither FCStone LLC or IFEL offers any warranty as to the accuracy orcompleteness of the information, nor is any liability assumed by us for the use ofany information contained herein.
2
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
3/76
Summary
Industrial metals, after going through a period of high volatility,have consolidated in largely sideways to downward trending trading
ranges. The underlying macro-economic fundamentals showdivergent regional trends-- China remains an important net buyer of
copper and to a lesser extent nickel, but overall Chinese
consumption has slowed.
Primary capacity is building, but planned and unplannedproduction cuts have limited output for copper (involuntary),
aluminum (voluntary) and tin, but for zinc, lead, and nickel, overall
throughput is surging. Inventories are falling in copper, nickel, and
tin, but rising in aluminum, lead, and zinc. Institutional investing,
which eased in 2011, has since recovered and is approaching a
record high.3
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
4/76
Summary
Overall, we project a modest economic recovery with industrialproduction rising 2% to 3% over the next two years. Chinese
industrial production will slow to 10% to 12%, but will still be strongcompared to other countries. The US will lead Western economies,
Europe will slip into recession and then recover, while Japan will
rebound from the Tsunami curtailed slowdown last year.
Metals consumption growth will accelerate from the 2011 pace,with reasonable gains in 2013. Primary capacity builds, already in
the pipeline, will add to supply, but cutbacks and unanticipatedlosses will limit growth. Chinese imports will remain at high levels in
copper, as well as in nickel and tin, contributing to tighter global
supply-demand balances that will persist in both 2012 and 2013.
4
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
5/76
Summary
Institutional demand (fund buying) will continue to grow over theforeseeable future as investors diversify their portfolios with
alternative investments and as advisors make the case for holdingreal assets amid what they will profess to be a continuation of the
commodity super-cycle.
The projected fundamental balances, combined with growinginstitutional demand, favor copper and tin, followed by lead;
aluminum is neutral, while zinc and nickel could struggle.
5
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
6/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Economic Outlook
6
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
7/76
7
G-3 Industrial Production
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12
US
WE
JP
G-3
China
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
8/76
8
Global IP/Economic Outlook
Global Economy (G-3)
Global industrial economy IP forecast: +2.1% 12 & +2.9% 13 vs +2% in 2011
United States
Recovery shows some momentum with jobless rate improving, GDP expanding, and consumer
spending rising. Although business investment has slowed, the PMI and new orders are firming andunderpin moderate industrial production growth. IP forecast: +3.1% 12 & +3.1% 13
Japan
Post-earthquake rebuild should support the industrial sectors but exports have slowed raising broader
questions of economic expansion. That said, the PMI is above 50, consumer confidence and spending
has improved, and the labor markets are firming : IP forecast: +3.7% 12 & +3.8% 13
Eurozone
Sovereign debt concerns, social unrest, a lack in confidence that austerity measures will be
implemented, debt downgrades, fiscal tightening, a weak labor market and slowing domestic growth
makes recession likely and threaten the broader American and Asian economies. The ECB injecting
liquidity and refraining from rate hikes has provided support
GR: mg and cap goods production and retail sales dn, but PMI over 50 and labor market improving
UK: labor market, retail sales weak, PMI improving, quantitative easing planned
Eurozone IP forecast: -0.4% 12 & +1.9% 13
China
Economic growth slowing with weakness in the West and a softening in real estate, but PMI >50,
monetary easing (lower reserve ratio) & fiscal stimulus expected; underlying buying in the metalssectors has slowed considerably (partly seasonal) ; IP Forecast :slows from 12%/13% to 11%/12%
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
9/76
9
G-3, China Industrial Prod Outlook
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%-5%
0%
5%
10%15%
20%
25%
30%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
US WEJP G-3China
US WE JA W World
2008 -2.6% -0.6% -1.5% -1.7%
2009 -11.6% -14.7% -22.9% -16.1%
2010 4.4% 5.8% 16.6% 8.8%2011 4.4% 4.1% -2.6% 2.0%
2012 3.1% -0.4% 3.7% 2.1%
2013 3.1% 1.9% 3.8% 2.9%
China
13.0%
11.2%
15.6%13.8%
12.0%
11.0%
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
10/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Price, Spread Review
10
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
11/76
LME Price Review
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
$3,200
copper aluminum
11
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
12/76
LME Price Review
zinc
tin
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
$2,100$2,400
$2,700
$3,000
$3,300
$3,600
$3,900
'00'01
'02'03
'04'05
'06'07
'08'09
'10'11
'12
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
$3,000
$8,000
$13,000
$18,000
$23,000
$28,000
$33,000
$38,000
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
nickel
lead
12
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
13/76
LME Spread Review
copper aluminum
-$1,100
-$900
-$700
-$500
-$300
-$100
$100
Cash-3M 3M-15M
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Cash-3M 3M-15M
13
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
14/76
LME Spread Review
zinc
tinnickel
lead
-$700
-$600
-$500
-$400
-$300
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
Cash-3M 3M-15M
-$350
-$300
-$250
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
Cash-3M 3M-15M
-$10,000
-$8,000
-$6,000
-$4,000
-$2,000
$0
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Cash-3M 3M-15M
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Cash-3M 3M-15M
14
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
15/76
Price Seasonals
aluminum nickel
lead
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
Average Trend Adj
95
97
99
101
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
95
97
99
101
103
105
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
zinccopper
15 *Average of 1973-2009
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
16/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Consumption Trends
16
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
17/76
Consumption Trends
copper
aluminum-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
US WE JP RoW China
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
US WE
JP RoW
China
17
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
18/76
Consumption Trends
zinc
tinnickel
lead
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
WW China
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
2006'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
China WW
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
US
WE
JP
RoW
China
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
United States West EuropeJapan Rest WorldChina
18
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
19/76
Consumption Forecasts
copper
aluminum
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
DD - IP Consumption
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
'98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
DD - IP Consumption Ind Prod
19
* DD = Demand/ConsumptionIP = Industrial Production
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
20/76
Consumption Forecasts
zinc
tinnickel
lead
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
DD - IP
Consumption
Ind Prod
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
DD - IPConsumptionInd Prod
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
-32%
-22%
-12%
-2%
8%
18%
28%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
21/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Production Trends
21
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
22/76
Production Trends
copper
aluminum
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000Refined Mine
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
26000
Cap Prod
22
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
23/76
Production Trends
zinc
tinnickel
lead
5,750
6,000
6,250
6,500
6,750
7,000
7,250
7,500
7,750
8,000
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Mine
Refined
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
5,400
Mine
Refined
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
1750
1850
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mine
Refined
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Mine
Refined
23
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
24/76
Capacity Builds
zinc
nickel
lead
aluminum
copper
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Oceana
Europe
Asia
LAmer
NAmer
Africa
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Oceana
Europe
Asia
LAmer
NAmer
Africa
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Column 12
Oceana
Europe
Asia
LAmer
NAmer
Africa
24
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
25/76
Copper Costs, and Prices
70th percentile
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Costs 2010
Costs 2009
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
current price
25
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
26/76
Cost Pressures
zinc
nickel
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Percentile
Costs 2011
Costs 2010
Costs 2009
aluminum
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentile
Costs 2010
Costs 2009
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentile
Costs 2010
Costs 2009
26
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
27/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
China,
East-West Trade
27
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
28/76
Chinas Net Metal Trade
(Exports Imports)
28
-400,000
-350,000
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tons Aluminum
-120,000-100,000
-80,000-60,000-40,000-20,0000
20,00040,00060,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tons Zinc
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,00020,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tons Lead
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tons Nickel
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tin
-400,000-350,000-300,000
-250,000-200,000-150,000-100,000-50,000
050,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Copper
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
29/76
China, Production-Consumption
copper
aluminum
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Net Ref Trade
Consumption
Refined Prod
Mine Prod
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Production
Consumption
29
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
30/76
East to West Trade
zinc
lead
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
East X (Russia)
East M (China)
Net Trade
copper
nickel
aluminum
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
'90'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'1213
Russia
Others
China
Net Sales
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
'95'96
'97'98
'99'00
'01'02
'03'04
'05'06
'07'08
'09'10
'11'12
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
'90'92
'94'96
'98'00
'02'04
'06'08
'10'12
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
'89'90'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12
East Exports to West (Russia)
East Imports from West (China)
Net Trade (Exports from East)
30
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
31/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Inventory Balances
31
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
32/76
Inventory Trends, Weeks Usage
copper
aluminum
0
100
200
300
400
500Producer
Consumer
Comex
LME
SHFE
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
LME
Comex
IPAI
Shang
-4
1
6
11
16
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
weeks
use
Ktonn
es
Stocks
Weeks Use
-3
2
7
12
17
22
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Stocks,k
t
Stocks
Weeks
32
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
33/76
Inventory Trends, Weeks Usage
lead
lead
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400Producer
Consumer
LME
Mrchnt
SHFE
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Producer
Consumer
Merchant
LME
SHFE
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Stocks
Weeks Use
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
'82'84
'86'88
'90'92
'94'96
'98'00
'02'04
'06'08
'10'12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
StocksWeeks Use
zinc
33
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
34/76
Inventory Trends, Weeks Usage
tin
nickel0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
LME
Prod
Cons
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
'71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10
Stocks,ktonne
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
WeeksUsag
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Total
LME
Weekstin
34
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
35/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Supply-Demand Outlook
35
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
36/76
Copper Market Outlook2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
United States -18.5% 6.9% 1.1%Europe -19.5% 11.4% -8.5%Japan -26.1% 21.1% -8.8%Other (West) -4.4% -2.0% -5.4%Refined Consumption 10,141 10,662 10,071 9,990 10,379
-13.5% 5.1% -5.5% -0.8% 3.9% IP -16.1% 8.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.9%DD - IP 2.6% -3.6% -7.6% -2.9% 1.0%
Mine Production 12,866 13,062 12,996 13,548 14,238
East to West Trade -2,051 -1,862 -1,708 -2,324 -2,347Total Supply 10,399 10,672 10,470 10,086 10,377
-14.0% 2.6% -1.9% -3.7% 2.9%
Reported Balance 278 -111 -18 3 -164
Stocks 1,067 956 938 941 777Stocks Usage Ratio 5.5 4.7 4.9 4.9 3.9
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Stocks/Consumption (weeks)
2000s
1990s
1980s
1970s
current ratio: 5.1 wks
price: $8,360
36
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
37/76
Aluminum Market Outlook2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Consumption 18,847 22,016 22,824 23,341 24,529
% Chg -15.9% 16.8% 3.7% 2.3% 5.1%
IP -16.1% 8.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.9%
DD-IP 0.3% 8.1% 1.6% 0.2% 2.2%
Total Production 19,281 20,037 21,282 21,469 22,647
-8.2% 3.9% 6.2% 0.9% 5.5%
Net E-W Balance 3,141 4,892 5,273 5,384 5,350
Total Supply 22,422 24,929 26,555 26,853 27,997
Reported Balance 1,777 17 648 330 431
Reported Stocks 6,485 6,502 7,150 7,480 7,911
Weeks Use 17.7 15.3 16.3 16.7 16.9
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22(Stocks/Shipments) Weeks
2000s
1990s
1980s
1970s
current ratio: 16.3 wks
price: $2,175
37
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
38/76
38
Zinc Market Outlook
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2000s
1990s
1980s
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Consumption 5,783 6,678 6,746 6,964 7,272
% Chg -16.2% 15.5% 1.0% 3.2% 4.4% IP -16.1% 8.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.9%
DD - IP -0.1% 6.7% -1.0% 1.1% 1.5%
Mine Production 7,370 7,678 7,855 7,882 7,998-3.0% 4.2% 2.3% 0.4% 1.5%
Refined Prod 6,144 6,770 6,971 7,011 7,219-8.0% 10.2% 3.0% 0.6% 3.0%
E/W Trade (215) 137 162 145 163Supply 5,929 6,907 7,133 7,156 7,382
Reported Balance 270 376 311 195 24
Stocks 1,097 1,473 1,784 1,980 2,004Weeks Use 9.9 11.5 13.8 14.8 14.4
current ratio: 13.9 wks
price: $2,080
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
39/76
39
Lead Market Outlook
$300
$800
$1,300
$1,800
$2,300
$2,800
$3,300
$3,800
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2000s
1990s
1980s
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Consumption 4,699 4,987 4,948 4,985 5,075
% Chg -10.4% 6.1% -0.8% 0.7% 1.8%
IP -16.1% 8.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.9%
DD-IP 5.7% -2.6% -2.8% -1.3% -1.1%
Mine 2,011 2,040 2,088 2,123 2,142
Refined 4,790 4,948 4,845 4,864 4,916
E-W Trade 5 85 86 84 82
Supply 4,795 5,033 4,931 4,948 4,999
-9.3% 5.0% -2.0% 0.3% 1.0%
Balance 83 60 193 97 12
Stocks 389 449 642 739 750
Weeks Use 4.3 4.7 6.8 7.7 7.7
current ratio: 7.1 wks
price: $2,125
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
40/76
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
41/76
41
Tin Market Outlook
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Consumption 167 209 184 181 188% Chg -15% 25% -12% -1% 4% IP -16% 9% 2% 2% 3%
DD-IP 1% 17% -14% -4% 1%
Mine 174 170 167 164 163Refined 191 202 211 215 214East to West Trade -15 -9 -29 -28 -28Government Sales 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply 176 194 182 187 187
Reported Balance 14 -11 -4 -4 -2Total Stocks 46 35 31 28 25Weeks Usage 14.4 8.8 8.9 8.2 7.0
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
5 7 8 10 11 13 14 16
current ratio: 8.2 wks
price: $24,250
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
42/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Funds and LME Volumes
42
LME Client Volumes: Funds vs Trade
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
43/76
43
LME Client Volumes: Funds vs Tradeexcludes broker crosses
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12e
Funds
Trade/Other
funds account for 60+% of client volumes
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
44/76
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000Macro
Hedge
44
Global Hedge/Macro Funds, $b AUM
Hedge Funds: hedge equity/bond exposures, long or short
CTA A
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
45/76
45
CTA Assets,$b AUM
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
90 91 92 9394 9596979899'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11
Commodity Trading Advisors: registered, trend following, F&O
0%
31%14%
5%
45%
5%
Agricultural Traders Currency TradersDiversified Traders Financial/Metal Traders
Discretionary Traders Systematic Traders
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
46/76
46
Index Funds, $b AUM
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
9091 929394 9596979899'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12e
Index of Commodities, Commodity Super Cycle, diversification
Energy Agric PrecM IndusMGSCI 67% 22% 3% 8%
DJ-UBS 28% 39% 14% 18%Rodgers 44% 35% 7% 14%Merrill Lynch 60% 24% 4% 13%
Average 50% 30% 7% wtd avg 13%
Copper Alum Zinc Nickel LeadGSCI 48.2% 28.9% 7.2% 9.6% 6.0%
DJ-UBS 42.5% 29.1% 13.5% 15.0% 0.0%
Rodgers 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Oppenheimer 2.4% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5%
Average 24.3% 16.2% 5.7% 6.6% 2.1%
ETF/ETN A t
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
47/76
47
ETF/ETN Assets, $b AUM
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Q106
Q206
Q306
Q406
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
Q108
Q208
Q307
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
-$0.25
$0.25
$0.75
$1.25
$1.75
$2.25ETF/ETN Assets ($b)
Industrial Metals
ETF/ETN:
4%
82%
3%10%
1%
Energy Industrial Metals Precious Metals
Agriculture Global
Industrial Metals Fund Allocations $b
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
48/76
48
Industrial Metals, Fund Allocations, $b
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Macro CTA Index ETF/ETN
F nds AUM $b
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
49/76
Funds, AUM $b
49
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Hedge Funds
$125
$150
$175
$200$225
$250
$275
$300
$325
$350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CTAs
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Macro Funds
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Index Funds
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
50/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Funds and Metals Pricing
50
Copper Prices,
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
51/76
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Copper Prices
Funds $ Index
Weeks Use
51
Fundamental & Fund Impact
copper prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) copper stocks, weeks use
Aluminum Prices,
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
52/76
52
Fundamental & Fund Impact
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
-1
2
5
8
Aluminum Prices
Funds $ Index
Weeks Use
aluminum prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) aluminum stocks, weeks use
Zinc Prices,
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
53/76
53
Fundamental & Fund Impact
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,0004,500
5,000
5,500
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Zinc Prices
Funds $ Index
Weeks Use
zinc prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) zinc stocks, weeks use
Lead Prices,
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
54/76
54
Fundamental & Fund Impact
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Lead Prices
Funds $ Index
Weeks Use
lead prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) lead stocks, weeks use
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
55/76
Tin Prices,
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
56/76
56
Fundamental & Fund Impact
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Tin Prices
Funds $ Index
LME Stocks
tin prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) tin stocks
Economic and Metals Summary
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
57/76
57
1. Moderate Economic Growth
2% to 3% in the West; China expands by 10% to 12%2. Metals consumption growth accelerates from 2011 pace
3. Primary capacity builds globally, but productioncuts/losses limits supply build
4. Chinese imports remain at high levels
5. Supply-demand balances generally tighter for 2013
6. Institutional demand recovers bolstering prices
7. Copper and tin followed by lead expected to trade firm,nickel and zinc soft, and aluminum steady.
Economic and Metals Summary
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
Base Metals Price Outlooks
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
58/76
58
Base Metals,Price Outlooks
Copper Alum Zinc Lead Nickel Tin
2011 Q1 $9,651 $2,500 $2,395 $2,604 $26,903 $29,910
2011 Q2 $9,152 $2,603 $2,254 $2,558 $24,298 $28,923
2011 Q3 $8,992 $2,400 $2,226 $2,462 $22,069 $24,796
2011 Q4 $7,436 $2,087 $1,897 $1,984 $18,221 $20,805
2011 Avg $8,808 $2,398 $2,193 $2,402 $22,873 $26,109
2012 Q1 $8,367 $2,196 $2,047 $2,119 $19,984 $23,225
2012 Q2 $8,800 $2,350 $2,100 $2,150 $20,000 $25,000
2012 Q3 $8,250 $2,250 $2,000 $2,200 $17,500 $24,000
2012 Q4 $8,600 $2,300 $1,900 $2,300 $16,500 $25,0002012 Avg $8,504 $2,274 $2,012 $2,192 $18,496 $24,306
2013 Q1 $8,850 $2,400 $1,800 $2,300 $17,500 $26,000
2013 Q2 $9,350 $2,300 $1,900 $2,200 $18,000 $27,000
2013 Q3 $8,850 $2,200 $1,900 $2,250 $17,500 $26,0002013 Q4 $9,100 $2,300 $1,800 $2,250 $16,500 $27,000
2013 Avg $9,038 $2,300 $1,850 $2,250 $17,375 $26,500
Reuters Price Forecasts (January 2012)
2012 $8,262 $2,239 $2,062 $2,201 $19,956 $22,319
2013 $8,731 $2,458 $2,340 $2,492 $21,695 $24,427
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
59/76
This section of the page should be blank except when footnotes are present.
Outlook Summaries
59
Copper Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
60/76
60
Copper Outlook
Copper consumption rebounds 2010, eases 2011; expected to holdsteady in 2012, firm in 2013
Significant mine capacity builds in 2012, 2013 but grade declines, labor
losses, phased startups, and output restraint w/ cutbacks; scrap tight
China imports surge (arb helps) but likely to slow, although remain highwith strong China consumption
LME inventories decline, Shanghai stocks up (overall, up), balancedmarket in 2011 and 2012, followed by deficit in 2013
Expansion in fund investment supports prices
Spreads steady, seasonals bullish, then bearish, bullish technical trend
Prices expected to hold steady near term, correct this summer, buteconomic rebound, improving supply demand fundamentals andspeculative demand support prices in late 2012 and 2013
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
New/Expanded Copper Capacity
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
61/76
61
p pp p y
Asia
Glogow Gleboki, Yangla, Duobaoshan, Ivanhoe, JabalSayid, Various Mines
North AmericaMorenci, Cananea, Andalcollo, Rosemont Ranch
South America
Los Pelambres, Cananea, Andina, Escondida, Toquepala,Salobo, Gaby Sur, Antamina
Europe
Aitik
AfricaLumwana, Chambishi, Konkola
Oceania
Ernest Henry, Cadia Hill East, Olympic Dam
Copper Quarterly Supply-Demand Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
62/76
62
11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4
United States 6.7%
Europe -23.0%
Japan -22.1%
Other (West) -2.8%
Refined Consumption 2,353 2,542 2,625 2,428 2,395 2,617 2,717 2,537 2,508
-9.6% -3.2% -1.8% 0.4% 1.8% 2.9% 3.5% 4.5% 4.7%
IP 1.1% 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1%
DD - IP -10.7% -5.2% -4.5% -1.3% -0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 1.5% 1.5%
Mine Production 3,407 3,267 3,349 3,371 3,560 3,418 3,504 3,545 3,771
East to West Trade -770 -577 -547 -581 -619 -581 -582 -591 -593
Total Supply 2,327 2,477 2,535 2,514 2,560 2,536 2,573 2,583 2,685
-16.2% -9.6% -9.4% -3.5% 10.0% 2.4% 1.5% 2.7% 4.9%
Reported Balance -86 17 -103 40 50 -130 -199 9 155
Stocks 938 955 852 891 941 812 612 622 777
Stocks Usage Ratio 4.9 5.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.2 3.1 3.2 3.9
Aluminum Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
63/76
63
Aluminum Outlook
Aluminum consumption rebounds 2010 and 2011 with economy, moderategrowth expected in 2012, 2013
Primary capacity builds, but recent cutbacks globally (America, Europe,Australia, and Russia/China) with cost increases/pressures and prices soft
China consumption and production surge; Russian output high, trade balance(surplus) widens with Russian exports
Inventories grow to record levels (in tonnes and near a record in weeksusage); surplus markets forecast for 2012 and 2013
Funds investment recovers; further portfolio diversification expectedsupporting prices
Spreads wide, bearish seasonals, bullish technical trend
Prices expected to firm near term w cutbacks, but excess stocks keep a capon prices longer term; econ rebound & spec demand support provide a floor
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
New/Expanded Alum Capacity
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
64/76
64
p p y
Asia
Korba, Jharsuguda, Mahan
China
Liancheng, Pingguo, Tuoketuo Datang, Zhaqi,
Yinchuan/Ningdong, Zhongning, Qinghai Xinye, QinghaiXinheng, Xinyuan, Nanshan, Weiqiao, Chiping Xinjiang,Dongyuan Qujing
Middle East
Abu Dhabi, Qatar
Alum Supply-Demand Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
65/76
65
Shipments Production Inventories Wks
K Tons % Chg IP DD-IP Prod-kt % Chg Prod-kt Chg Use
2011 20,052 15.4% 8.8% 6.6% 20,037 3.9% 5,877 (15) 15.3
2011Q1 4,737 -0.9% 4.9% -5.8% 5,177 7.2% 6,318 440 15.9
2011Q2 5,654 12.2% 0.6% 11.6% 5,316 6.9% 5,979 (338) 15.12011Q3 5,548 10.4% 1.5% 8.9% 5,389 6.8% 5,820 (159) 14.7
2011Q4 4,765 -8.5% 1.1% -9.7% 5,400 4.0% 6,455 635 16.3
2011 20,704 3.3% 2.0% 1.2% 21,282 6.2% 6,455 578 16.3
2012Q1 4,976 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5,346 3.3% 6,825 370 16.8
2012Q2 5,569 -1.5% 2.6% -4.1% 5,362 0.9% 6,618 (207) 16.3
2012Q3 5,561 0.2% 1.7% -1.5% 5,374 -0.3% 6,431 (187) 15.9
2012Q4 5,034 5.6% 2.0% 3.7% 5,388 -0.2% 6,785 353 16.7
2012 21,139 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 21,469 0.9% 6,785 330 16.7
2013Q1 5,177 4.0% 2.6% 1.4% 5,562 4.0% 7,170 385 16.8
2013Q2 5,810 4.3% 2.9% 1.4% 5,685 6.0% 7,045 (125) 16.5
2013Q3 5,881 5.8% 3.0% 2.7% 5,695 6.0% 6,859 (186) 16.1
2013Q4 5,348 6.2% 3.1% 3.1% 5,705 5.9% 7,216 357 16.9
2013 22,215 5.1% 2.9% 2.2% 22,647 5.5% 7,216 431 16.9
Zinc Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
66/76
66
Zinc consumption slows 2011, moderate increases in 2012 and 2013 witheconomic recovery (but concerns in Europe and China)
Mine capacity builds globally, refined production increases (cutbacks intime); but not enough in near term
China shifts from export to importer with consumption surging & productionflattens; trade balance shifts from net exports to net imports
Market oversupplied, recent LME and SHFE builds, surpluses forecast for2012; better balance in 2013
Funds investment recovers; further portfolio diversification into commoditiesexpected supporting prices
Spreads in contango, bearish seasonals, market oversold
Prices expected to correct near term, but surplus weighs on prices; marketfinds support from modest economic growth and institutional buying
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
New/Expanded Zinc Capacity
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
67/76
67
Europe
Neves-Corvo, Ozernoye, Almagrera
AfricaQued Amizour, Perkoa
Asia
Rampura-Agucha, Shaimerden, Duddar, Khandiza
North America
Bracemac-Macleod, Tennesee
South America
Penasquito, IscaycruzOceania
Century, Mt Isa/Hilton
Zinc Supply-Demand Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
68/76
68
11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4
Consumption 1,720 1,760 1,794 1,652 1,757 1,823 1,871 1,732 1,845
% Chg 6.3% 3.9% 5.0% 1.8% 2.1% 3.6% 4.3% 4.8% 5.0%
IP 1.1% 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1%DD - IP 5.2% 1.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9%
Mine Production 1,965 1,961 1,984 1,971 1,966 1,992 2,014 1,999 1,994
2.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4%
Refined Prod 1,780 1,769 1,726 1,735 1,782 1,821 1,747 1,820 1,831
2.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 3.0% 1.2% 4.9% 2.7%
E/W Trade 75 37 34 35 38 38 39 43 43
Supply 1,855 1,806 1,760 1,771 1,820 1,860 1,786 1,863 1,873
ReportedBalance (20) 55 (31) 112 60 27 (97) 92 2
Stocks 1,784 1,839 1,807 1,920 1,980 2,007 1,910 2,002 2,004
Weeks Use 13.8 13.8 13.5 14.4 14.8 14.4 13.7 14.4 14.4
Lead Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
69/76
69
Lead consumption soft in 2010, 2011; modest growth in 2012, 2013
Moderate mine capacity, production builds 2010 and 2011; modestincreases in 2012, 2013
China shifts from export to importer with consumption surging &production cuts; balanced market last couple years
Inventories grow, surplus markets in 2010, 2011; oversupply expectedin 2012 shifting to better balance in 2013
Funds investment recovers; further portfolio diversification intocommodities expected supporting prices
Spreads in contango, neutral to bearish seasonals, nearby technical
trend down
Prices expected to correct (rise) short term, but longer term, surplussupply-demand balance weighs on pricing. Economic recovery andinstitutional buying supports prices
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
New/Expanded Lead Capacity
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
70/76
70
Europe
Qued Amizour
AfricaBlack Mountain
Asia
Sindesar Khurd, DuddarNorth America
Sweet Water
South America
San Cristobal, Penasquito
Oceania
Mt Isa, Century, Magellan, Endeavor, Rasp
Lead Supply-Demand Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
71/76
71
11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4
Consumption 1,230 1,227 1,259 1,258 1,241 1,249 1,281 1,281 1,264
% Chg -5.3% 0.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%
IP 1.1% 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1%DD-IP -6.4% -1.6% -1.0% -1.7% -1.1% -0.8% -1.2% -1.3% -1.3%
Mine 524 523 534 533 533 532 542 535 533
Refined 1,197 1,217 1,221 1,218 1,208 1,239 1,248 1,221 1,208
E-W Trade 18 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 21
Supply 1,215 1,239 1,242 1,239 1,229 1,261 1,268 1,241 1,229
-2.0% 2.0% 0.3% -0.3% -0.8% 2.6% 0.6% -2.1% -1.0%
Balance -36 54 26 9 7 38 11 -20 -17
Stocks 642 696 723 732 739 776 787 767 750
Weeks Use 6.8 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.7
Nickel Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
72/76
72
Nickel consumption rebounds 2010, slows 2011, moderate growthexpected in 2012, 2013 with economic recovery
Significant primary capacity builds in next couple years, but output
somewhat restrained w/ cutbacks/delays. China imports remain high with consumption surging; trade balance
shifts sharply
Inventories decline 2010 and 2011, surplus forecast for 2012 and 2013
Funds investment recovers; further portfolio diversification intocommodities expected supporting prices
Spreads easing, seasonals bullish, then weak, technical trend up
Prices expected to hold steady/firm near term, longer term supplyfundamentals negative, but moderate economic growth, steadyChinese demand, and institutional buying provide support
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
New/Expanded Nickel Capacity
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
73/76
73
Europe
Talvivaara, Pobuskoye
AfricaSelebi-Phikwe, Ambatovy, Nkomati
Asia
CaldagNorth America
Nickel Rim South, Vale-Inco Ontario, Voiseys Bay
South America
Barro-Alto, Onca Puma, Santa Rita
Oceania
Forrestania, Goro, Koniambo, SLN/Eramet, Ramu River
Nickel Supply-Demand Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
74/76
74
11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4
WW Consumption 207 225 238 218 210 230 246 228 222
% Chg -9% -2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 5% 6%
IP Growth 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%Consumption - IP -10% -4% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3%
WW Mine Production 341 342 350 359 364 372 378 392 393
WW Refined Production 229 228 233 240 242 247 251 262 260
FFS Trade 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
WW Total Supply 234 234 238 245 247 252 256 267 265
Apparent Balance 27 9 0 28 37 21 9 39 43
Unreported Balance -34 -5 -14 -19 -18 -14 -16 -17 -16
Reported Balance -7 4 -14 9 19 7 -7 22 26
Reported Stocks 167 171 157 166 185 192 186 208 234
Weeks Consumption 9.9 10.1 9.3 9.8 10.8 11.2 10.7 11.8 13.2
Weeks Deliveries 14.7 15.3 13.9 14.6 16.2 16.8 16.0 17.7 19.7
Tin Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
75/76
75
Tin consumption rebounds 2010, eases 2011; moderate growth expected2012 and 2013 with economic recovery
Despite primary production builds, output restrained w/ cutbacks
China shifts from export to importer with consumption surging & productionflattening; trade balance shifts
Inventories decline, deficit market expected in 2012 and 2013
Funds investment recovers; further portfolio diversification into commoditieswill support prices
Spreads tightening, bullish seasonals, bullish technical trend butoverbought
Prices expected to remain firm with tight market balance, supply restraint,economic recovery, and institutional buying
*INTL FCStone estimates/projections
Tin Supply-Demand Outlook
7/28/2019 Price Forecasts
76/76
76
11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4
Consumption 45.3 45.2 45.7 44.6 45.6 46.5 47.1 46.4 47.7
% Chg -11.2% -5.1% -1.1% -0.1% 0.6% 2.8% 3.0% 4.0% 4.7% IP 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%
DD-IP -12% -7% -4% -2% -1% 0% 0% 1% 2%
Mine 42.2 40.3 40.9 40.7 41.7 40.3 40.2 40.7 41.7
Refined 56.8 52.3 54.2 53.4 54.6 53.1 53.1 53.6 54.6
East to West Trade -13.7 -7.3 -7.3 -7.0 -6.3 -6.5 -6.8 -7.1 -7.2
Government Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Supply 43.2 45.0 46.9 46.4 48.3 46.6 46.3 46.5 47.4
Reported Balance -8.8 -2.8 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 -0.1 -0.4
Total Stocks 31.4 28.4 28.5 28.0 27.6 26.9 25.8 25.7 25.3
Weeks Usage 9.0 8.2 8.1 8.2 7.9 7.5 7.1 7.2 6.9