Racial Bias in Criminal Sentencing

transcript

Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking:A Test of the ‘Liberation Hypothesis’

Rhys HesterPost-Doctoral Research Fellow

Robina Institute of Criminal Law and Criminal JusticeUniversity of Minnesota Law School

Todd K. HartmanLecturer in Quantitative Methods

Sheffield Methods Institutet.k.hartman@sheffield.ac.uk

http://tkhartman.staff.shef.ac.uk/

October 1, 2014Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

Brief Bio: My Research Interests

Political Psychology / Behaviour (Individual-level)1 Intergroup Relations and Identity

Prejudice / Inequality(e.g., Racial, Ethnic, Partisan, Economic, and ReligiousGroups)

2 Attitudes and Persuasion

Framing, Campaigns, Information-Processing, and Analogies

Quantitative Research Methods

Survey ResearchExperimental Design and AnalysisStructural Equation Modeling

Todd K. Hartman, SMI Bias in Judicial Decisionmaking

Global Incarceration Rates

Source: International Centre for Prison Studies

U.S. Outpaces World in Prison Population

Incarcerated Population Increases Over Time

Incarceration Rate Increases Over Time

Justice Blind?

Minorities Disproportionately Imprisoned

Research Question

Given that racial disparities exist in the U.S. justice system,when are they most likely to occur?

Criminal Sentencing Decisions

Research Question

Given that racial disparities exist in the U.S. justice system,when are they most likely to occur?

Criminal Sentencing Decisions

Theory

‘Liberation Hypothesis’ [Kalven & Zeisel (1966)]

Clear evidence; favours one side

Jurors constrained; decisionmaking on relevant case facts

Ambiguous evidence; no easy favourite

Jurors ’liberated’ to consider extra-legal factors

Theory

‘Liberation Hypothesis’ [Kalven & Zeisel (1966)]Clear evidence; favours one side

Theory

‘Liberation Hypothesis’ [Kalven & Zeisel (1966)]Clear evidence; favours one side

Hypothesis

Adapted to Criminal Sentencing Decisions (i.e., Judges)

When Is Public Scrutiny Lowest?

Severity of Crime: Minor vs. Major Crimes[Spohn & Cederblom (1991); Spohn & DeLone (2000)]

Severity of Crime AND Offender

For minor offenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced tolonger prison terms than whites.Blacks with limited criminal history more likely to beincarcerated than whites.

Hypothesis

For minor offenses, Blacks more likely to be sentenced tolonger prison terms than whites.

Blacks with limited criminal history more likely to beincarcerated than whites.

Hypothesis

What Evidence? Testing the Liberation Hypothesis

N = 17,643 Cases

South Carolina Circuit Courts

All Criminal Cases for FY 2001

Non-guidelines State

Profile: South Carolina

Pop.: 4.8 m

White = 64%

Black = 28%

Profile: South Carolina

Population: 4.8 m

White = 64%

Black = 28%

Prison Pop.: 21.9 k

White = 34%

Black = 64%

Measures: Overview

Prison Sentence Decision

Case Characteristics

Offense Seriousness (1-5)Commitment Score (1-12)Type of Crime (Violent, Drug, Property, Other)Guilty at Trial (v. Plea)

Offender Characteristics

Criminal History (1-5)Gender (Male v. Female)Age (15-81 yrs. old)Race (Black v. White)

Measures: Overview

Measures: Outcome Variable

Prison Sentence Decision(2-stage)

Binary Decision to Incarcerate(Yes /No)

If yes (hurdle), expectedminimum prison sentence(in months)Range: 1 month to 360months (30 years)

Distribution of Prison Sentence DV

Measures: Key Independent Variable (Moderator #1)

Offense Seriousness - SC Classification Scheme

1 Misdemeanors (15%)

Vandalism, Political Intimidation

2 Class F Felonies (46%)

Stalking, Illegal Conduct at Elections

3 Class E Felonies (20%)

Harm to a Child, Reckless Homicide

4 Class D Felonies (11%)

Burglary, Distribution of Meth

5 Class A, B, C, or Exempt Felonies (8%)

Murder, Kidnapping, Armed Robbery

Measures: Key Independent Variable (Moderator #2)

Criminal History

(SC Sentencing Commission)

1 None (37%)

2 Minimal (33%)

3 Moderate (17%)

4 Considerable (6%)

5 Extensive (7%)

Analytic Strategy

Prison Sentence

Count in Months

Positive Integer (y > 0)

Skewed Distribution

Analytic Strategy

Prison Sentence

Count in Months

Positive Integer (y > 0)

Skewed Distribution

Modeling Strategy

1 Linear Regression (OLS)2 Event Count Models

PoissonNegative Binomial

3 Zero-Inflated & ‘Hurdle’Models

HRM: Comparison of Event Count Models

Results: Average Marginal Effects of Predicted Sentence

Results: Average Marginal Effects of Pr(Prison)

Marginal Effect of Being Black on Pr(Prison)

Marginal Effect of Being Black on Sentence Length

Conclusion

Support for the ‘Liberation Hypothesis’ (‘When?’ Question)Black Offenders Are More Likely (than Whites) to BeIncarcerated...

...at lower levels of Criminal History

Black Offenders Receive Longer Prison Sentences (thanWhites)...

...at lower levels of Offense Seriousness

Conclusion

Support for the ‘Liberation Hypothesis’ (‘When?’ Question)Black Offenders Are More Likely (than Whites) to BeIncarcerated...

...at lower levels of Criminal History

Black Offenders Receive Longer Prison Sentences (thanWhites)...

...at lower levels of Offense Seriousness

Normative Implications

Bias Occurs When ‘No One Is Looking’

Black Minor Offenders More Likely (than Whites) to BeBrought Into the Criminal Justice System

1 Loss of Civil Rights2 Future Marred by Criminal Record (jobs, housing, etc.)3 Destabilizes Family Unit4 Voter Disenfranchisement

Questions?