Reducing Passenger Vehicle GHG Emissions

Tom CacketteCalifornia Air Resources Board

SEI RoundtableNext Steps Post-Kyoto: U.S. Options

Session 1: Where Are We Now?

Climate Change In CA

Climate Change in CAPast 100 Years

Higher temperature (0.7 °F) Sea level rise (3-8 inches) Spring run-off decrease (12%)

1984 2002

Climate Change in CANext 100 Years

Temperature increase 7 to 10 oF– Heat stress related deaths

Sea level rise 11 to 16 inches– Property damage– Saltwater contamination of fresh water supply

Sierra snow pack reduced 73 to 89 percent– Winter/spring flooding

– Not enough irrigation water in summer

Pavley Bill

Signed by Governor - 2002 Requires reduction of greenhouse gas

emissions– New passenger vehicles sold in California– 2009+ models – Maximum feasible reduction– Cost beneficial to consumer

Clear Public Support“What about the state law that requires all automakers to further reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from new cars in California by 2009? Do you support or oppose this law?”

2004: 81% support2003: 80% support2002: 81% support

Engine Transmission

Methane

CO2

Vehicle Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

A/C compressorCO2

HFCs

Nitrous Oxide

Catalyst

Available Technologiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Cylinder Deactivation

Automated Manual TransmissionAudi TT

2005 Chrysler 300C Hemi

Audi TT3.2 V6

6%1

7%

1 % CO2 reduction, large car

Available Technologiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Variable valve timing & lift

Acura RSX

Honda Accord

Toyota Matrix

4%

Available Technologiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Gasoline Direct Injectionw/dual cam phasers

Turbochargerw/ engine downsize

BMW Valvetronic(continuously variable valve timing & lift)

2005 Audi

BMW 5 Series

Volvo S60

1%

6%

8%

Emerging Technologiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Camless valve actuation Homogeneous Combustion Compression Ignition

2005 Chevrolet Silverado

Integrated Starter/Generator

4%

16%6%

Fleet Average Emission Standards

CO2-equivalent emissionstandards (g/mi)Tier Year

PC/LDT1 LDT2

2009 323 4392010 301 4202011 267 390

Near-term

2012 233 3612013 227 3552014 222 3502015 213 341

Mid-term

2016 205 332

~22% reductionin 20121

~30% reductionin 20161

1 Compared to 2002 models

Regulation Reduces CAClimate Change Emissions*

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2004 2010 2020 2030

LD

V C

O2

1000

s to

n/d

ay

Status quo

Regulation-27%-19%

* Fleetwide

Average Price Increase of New, Low GHG Vehicles

Retail Vehicle Price IncreaseModelYear

Passenger CarsSmall Trucks/SUVs

Large Trucks/SUVs

201222% less GHG $367 $277

Average Price Increase of New, Low GHG Vehicles

Retail Vehicle Price IncreaseModelYear

Passenger CarsSmall Trucks/SUVs

Large Trucks/SUVs

201222% less GHG $367 $277

201630% less GHG $1064 $1029

Net Savings for Vehicle Purchaser

2012Models

Monthly PaymentIncrease

$7

Monthly OperatingCost Savings

$18

Monthly Net Savings $11

Net Savings for Vehicle Purchaser

2012Models

2016Models

Monthly PaymentIncrease

$7 $20

Monthly OperatingCost Savings

$18 $23

Monthly Net Savings $11 $3

Economic Impacts More jobs (53,000)

Higher income ($5 billion/year)

Positive impacts on low income communities

Increase in number of businesses Slightly lower smog emissions (3 tpd)

Vehicle sales (~4% lower after 2015)

Further InformationCalifornia Air Resources Board

Tom Cackette tcackett@arb.ca.gov

916-322-2892

Chuck Shulock cshulock@arb.ca.gov

916-322-6964