Selecting the Best Decision Tree Models with SPSS 16.0 and ROrdinal Target ("High")

¯

LegendOutsideSampleAreaNode18, Rule1Node20, Rule2Not Critical Node, No rules

0 40 80 120Kilometers

Map of Critical Nodes for Ordinal Target

Continuous Target "Maximimum"

¯ 0 40 80 120Kilometers

LegendOutsideSampleAreaNode16, Rule1Node4, RULE3Node8, RULE2Node9, RULE4Not Critical Node, No rules

Map of Critical Nodes for Continuous Target

Table for Selecting Best Tree Model Table for Selecting Best Tree Model

Gain Table for Ordinal Target

Gain Table for Continuous Target

Decision Tree with Critical Nodes (Red Circle)Decision Tree with Critical Nodes (Red Circle)

Summary Output

Summary Output 1

Summary Output 2

Rules and Predictors Table Rules and Predictors Table

R Rules and Settings

R Trees and Settings

Risk Table

Risk Table

Data Dictionary

Purpose: To predict a target variable utilizing decison treesfor both ordinal and continuous data. The target variable inthis project is averge household spending on food per year.Critical nodes and the rules developed by each tressfocused on targeting the highest spending possible. C&RTwas chosen as the best modelling method for bothcontinuous and ordinal fields.

C&RT was chosen based onthe left table. Virtually allalgoruthms presented similarcumulative gain (%) ,Responses and Correctlyclassified records. With anoutstanding improvement onindex (%) values andreasonable tree levels,C&RT was chosen as thealgorithm of choice forordinal data.

Continuous Chart

The decision regarding whichalgorithm to use for continuousdata was obvious. C&RTpresents the highest value inmaximum index(%), classifiedrecords and mean whencomparing to the rest of themodelling methods. The onlyconcern is that all the threemodels' final tree results are notquite satisfied, with only a slightlyimprovement in comparison tothe node 0 perdicted values.

Sources: CENSUS Canada,Canadian Expendictures andprojections. Software: SPSS Modeler16.0, IBM SPSS, ArcMap 10.2, RPrepared by: Chen Shi w027460Instructor: Konrad DramowiczDate: February, 2015

Ordinal Charts