Post on 28-Aug-2020
transcript
2013 Texas
SDC/BIDC
Conference for Data
Users
May 22, 2013
Austin, Texas
Texas Population, Characteristics,
Trends, and Projections
Percent Change
Due to
Year* Population
Numerical
Change
Percent
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 54.94 45.06
2012 26,059,203 913,642 3.6 52.05 47.95
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the
U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012
2
Total Estimated Population by County, 2012
3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates
Along and east of I-35:
40% of land
85% of population
92% of population growth (2011-2012)
Legend
POPESTIMATE2012
71-10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,001-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,253,700
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010
4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
79 counties lost
population over the
decade
Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012
5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.
96 counties lost
population over the
two year period
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
popchg4201072012
LT 0
1-1,000
1,001-20,000
20,001-80,000
80,001-161,252
Of counties that lost population
90% had net out migration
47% had natural decline
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
6
Percent Increase
1. Midland, Texas 4.6
2. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7
3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6
4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4
5. Odessa, Texas 3.4
6. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3
7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.0
8. Casper, Wyo. 3.0
9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9
10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
7
Numeric Increase
1. Harris, Texas 80,005
2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764
3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644
4. Dallas, Texas 45,827
5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880
6. King, Wash. 35,838
7. Travis, Texas 34,381
8. Orange, Calif. 34,017
9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997
10. Clark, Nev. 32,833
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013
8 http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
9 http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
10 http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
11 http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Un
der
1 y
ear
4 y
ears
8 y
ears
12
yea
rs
16
yea
rs
20
yea
rs
24
yea
rs
28
yea
rs
32
yea
rs
36
yea
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40
yea
rs
44
yea
rs
48
yea
rs
52
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56
yea
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60
yea
rs
64
yea
rs
68
yea
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72
yea
rs
76
yea
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80
yea
rs
84
yea
rs
88
yea
rs
92
yea
rs
96
yea
rs
10
0 t
o 1
04
…
Po
pu
lati
on
Age
White (non-Hispanic)
Hispanic
12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
NH White Male NH White Female
13
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male
Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
14
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male
NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
15
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Zero
.5 of 2000-2010
2000-2010
Migration Scenarios
16
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Zero
.5 of 2000-2010
2000-2010
Migration Scenarios
17
Projected Population Growth in Williamson County, Texas 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Zero
.5 of 2000-2010
2000-2010
Migration Scenarios
18
Projected Population Growth in Harris County, Texas 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Zero
.5 of 2000-2010
2000-2010
Migration Scenarios
19
Projected Population Growth in Donley County, Texas 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
Projected Racial and Ethnic Population (2000-2010 Scenario), Texas, 2010-2050
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
20 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Projected Racial and Ethnic Population (.5 Scenario), Texas, 2010-2050
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
21 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
22 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
23 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
Texas Population Pyramid, 2010
2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
0-4 years5-9 years
10-14 years15-19 years20-24 years25-29 years30-34 years35-39 years40-44 years45-49 years50-54 years55-59 years60-64 years65-69 years70-74 years75-79 years80-84 years
85 +
Females
Males
24 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Texas Population Pyramid (.5 Migration Scenario), 2050
2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
0-4 years5-9 years
10-14 years15-19 years20-24 years25-29 years30-34 years35-39 years40-44 years45-49 years50-54 years55-59 years60-64 years65-69 years70-74 years75-79 years80-84 years
85 +
Females
Males
25 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Texas Population Pyramid (2000-2010 Migration Scenario) , 2050
2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
0-4 years5-9 years
10-14 years15-19 years20-24 years25-29 years30-34 years35-39 years40-44 years45-49 years50-54 years55-59 years60-64 years65-69 years70-74 years75-79 years80-84 years
85 +
Females
Males
26 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Counties and places
• averages of estimates
– ratio-correlation (births, deaths, elementary school enrollment, vehicle and voter registration)
– component-method II (births, deaths and elementary school enrollment)
– housing-unit method
27
Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2011-2012
28 Source: Texas State Data Center 2013 Population Estimates
Legend
'CO-EST2012-Alldata$'.pct_chg_10_11
-2.1 - 0.0 %
0.1 - 1%
1.1 - 2.5%
2.51 - 5%
5.1 - 17.7%
Discussion
• Race/ethnic allocation
• Age-Race/Ethnic-Sex
• Addition of Asian category
• Sub-county projections
29
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
30