The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results and Changes for 2008

transcript

The Graphical Tropical Weather The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results

and Changes for 2008and Changes for 2008

The Graphical Tropical Weather The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results

and Changes for 2008and Changes for 2008

National Hurricane Center Graphical National Hurricane Center Graphical TWO Team:TWO Team:

Jamie RhomeJamie Rhome Dan BrownDan BrownJames FranklinJames Franklin Chris LauerChris Lauer

Chris JuckinsChris Juckins Chris Landsea Chris Landsea

National Hurricane Center Graphical National Hurricane Center Graphical TWO Team:TWO Team:

Jamie RhomeJamie Rhome Dan BrownDan BrownJames FranklinJames Franklin Chris LauerChris Lauer

Chris JuckinsChris Juckins Chris Landsea Chris Landsea

User Feedback from 2007 User Feedback from 2007 Experimental PhaseExperimental Phase

Over 2800 total forms of written feedback including;Over 2800 total forms of written feedback including;• 2207 surveys 2207 surveys

1472 surveys during the first 2 months (7/15-9/15) of 1472 surveys during the first 2 months (7/15-9/15) of the experimental period the experimental period

• ~600 emails to the webmaster~600 emails to the webmaster

~5.6 million total web hits~5.6 million total web hits• 91% Atlantic91% Atlantic• 9% Pacific9% Pacific

In terms of web hits, the GTWO was among the most popular In terms of web hits, the GTWO was among the most popular products and surpassed the text TWO within the first 30 days products and surpassed the text TWO within the first 30 days of its launch on July 15th.of its launch on July 15th.

Over 2800 total forms of written feedback including;Over 2800 total forms of written feedback including;• 2207 surveys 2207 surveys

1472 surveys during the first 2 months (7/15-9/15) of 1472 surveys during the first 2 months (7/15-9/15) of the experimental period the experimental period

• ~600 emails to the webmaster~600 emails to the webmaster

~5.6 million total web hits~5.6 million total web hits• 91% Atlantic91% Atlantic• 9% Pacific9% Pacific

In terms of web hits, the GTWO was among the most popular In terms of web hits, the GTWO was among the most popular products and surpassed the text TWO within the first 30 days products and surpassed the text TWO within the first 30 days of its launch on July 15th.of its launch on July 15th.

Distribution of Respondent AffiliationDistribution of Respondent Affiliation

Respondent Affiliation

Business/Industry

Individual

New s/Media

Other Fed Gov't

Other Research Institute

State/Local Gov't

Student/Teacher

University Student

University Faculty

Not provided62% of the 62% of the respondents respondents were individualswere individuals

Survey HighlightsSurvey HighlightsSurvey HighlightsSurvey Highlights

98% of respondents that 98% of respondents that provided an answer feel the provided an answer feel the GTWO is an appropriate NWS GTWO is an appropriate NWS product/service.product/service.

8.9: average technical rating 8.9: average technical rating (accuracy, timeliness, etc) on a (accuracy, timeliness, etc) on a scale from 1-10.scale from 1-10.• Two-thirds gave a 9 or 10 ratingTwo-thirds gave a 9 or 10 rating

9.6: average rating regarding 9.6: average rating regarding ease of use and interpretationease of use and interpretation• Three-fourths gave a 10 ratingThree-fourths gave a 10 rating• Nearly 90% gave a 9 or 10 ratingNearly 90% gave a 9 or 10 rating

Two-thirds of respondents use Two-thirds of respondents use the product daily or several the product daily or several times per day. times per day.

98% of respondents that 98% of respondents that provided an answer feel the provided an answer feel the GTWO is an appropriate NWS GTWO is an appropriate NWS product/service.product/service.

8.9: average technical rating 8.9: average technical rating (accuracy, timeliness, etc) on a (accuracy, timeliness, etc) on a scale from 1-10.scale from 1-10.• Two-thirds gave a 9 or 10 ratingTwo-thirds gave a 9 or 10 rating

9.6: average rating regarding 9.6: average rating regarding ease of use and interpretationease of use and interpretation• Three-fourths gave a 10 ratingThree-fourths gave a 10 rating• Nearly 90% gave a 9 or 10 ratingNearly 90% gave a 9 or 10 rating

Two-thirds of respondents use Two-thirds of respondents use the product daily or several the product daily or several times per day. times per day.

Not provided

Frequence of Use

Occassionally

Seasonally

Weekly

Several Times/Week

Several Times/Day

Verification of 2007 Genesis Verification of 2007 Genesis ProbabilitiesProbabilities

Verification by Categorical BinsVerification by Categorical BinsVerification by Categorical BinsVerification by Categorical Bins

AtlanticAtlanticForecast Range Expected % Verifying # of Forecasts 0-10% (Low) 5 3 389 20-50% (Medium) 28 18 263 60-100% (High) 71 66 53

Forecast Range Expected % Verifying # of Forecasts 0-10% (Low) 5 3 389 20-50% (Medium) 28 18 263 60-100% (High) 71 66 53

East PacificEast Pacific

Categories for the 2008 Graphical TWO -Low-probability of genesis less than 20%-Low-probability of genesis less than 20% -Medium-probability of genesis from 20-50%-Medium-probability of genesis from 20-50% -High-probability of genesis greater than 50%-High-probability of genesis greater than 50%

Forecast Range Expected % Verifying # of Forecasts 0-10% (Low) 6 6 179 20-50% (Medium) 26 47 162 60-100% (High) 70 90 29

Note the large separation between categories

Atlantic Genesis Forecasts 48 h Prior to TC Formation

Approximate Hours Prior to Genesis

-44.5 -38.5 -32.5 -26.5 -20.5 -14.5 -8.5 -2.5

Andrea DSA* DSA* DSA*

Barry DSA* 20

Chantal 30 30 30 30 30 40 50 50

Dean 20 40 60 60 80 70 60

Erin 30 30 60 70 70 70 90 90

Felix 30 30 30 30 40 40 60 90

Gabrielle 60 50 20 20 20 20 90 90

Humberto 30 40 40 40 30 40 40 80

Ingrid 0 10 20 10 20 20 30 30

Ten 70 70 70 80 70 80 90 90

Jerry 10 10 10 0 10 10 10 40

Karen 40 60 60 60 60 80 80 100

Lorenzo 20 20 20 30 60 60 60 80

Melissa 20 20 20 20 10 10 10

Fifteen

Noel 50 50 40 30 30 30 80 80

Olga DSA* DSA* DSA* DSA* DSA*

Avg.Avg. 3434 3434 3535 3737 4040 4545 5858 6565

*DSA issued outside of Hurricane Season

East Pacific Genesis Forecasts 48 h Prior to TC Formation

Approximate Hours Prior to Genesis

-43 -37 -31 -25 -19 -13 -7 -1

Alvin 30 40 50 70 60 60 50 90

Barbara 20 20 10 30 30 30 50 100

Three-E 10 0 0 10 30 30 30 30

Four-E 60 70 80 70 50 40 30 30

Five-E 10 40 30 30 40 60 60 60

Cosme 10 0 20 20 20 20 20 20

Dalila 10 10 20 20 40 70

Erick 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Flossie 50 50 50 60 40 30 30 50

Gil 20 20 20 20 30 40 50 60

Henriette 20 20 20 30 50 50

Ivo 20 40 50 50 50 40 50 80

Thirteen-E 10 20 20 20 20 30 30

Juliette 10 20 40 60 80 90 90

Kiko 20 20 60 60 60 60 70 80

Avg.Avg. 2525 2626 3131 3535 3737 3939 4545 5757

Changes for 2008Changes for 2008Changes for 2008Changes for 2008

1. Move the issuance times of the operational text Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and the experimental graphical TWO for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins to synoptic time.

2. Increase the availability of the graphical TWO from two times daily to four times daily.

3. Include 3-tiered categorical genesis forecasts (color-coding) in the experimental graphical TWO.

-Low-probability of genesis less than 20%-Low-probability of genesis less than 20% -Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50%-Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50% -High-probability of genesis greater than 50%-High-probability of genesis greater than 50%

1. Move the issuance times of the operational text Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and the experimental graphical TWO for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins to synoptic time.

2. Increase the availability of the graphical TWO from two times daily to four times daily.

3. Include 3-tiered categorical genesis forecasts (color-coding) in the experimental graphical TWO.

-Low-probability of genesis less than 20%-Low-probability of genesis less than 20% -Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50%-Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50% -High-probability of genesis greater than 50%-High-probability of genesis greater than 50%

New 2008 TWO and GTWO Issuance Times New 2008 TWO and GTWO Issuance Times Shown in Yellow with Shown in Yellow with Old 2007 Issuance Old 2007 Issuance

Times Shown in OrangeTimes Shown in Orange

2 AM EDT/ 1 AM EST Atlantic and Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO

5:30AM ET Atlantic TWO

4 AM PT Pacific TWO

11:30AM ET Atlantic TWO and experimental GTWO

10 AM PT Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO

8 AM EDT/ 7 AM EST Atlantic and Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO

2 PM EDT/1 PM EST Atlantic and Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO

8 PM EDT/ 7 PM EST Atlantic and Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO

5:30PM ET Atlantic TWO

4 PM PT Pacific TWO

10:30PM ET Atlantic TWO and experimental GTWO

10 PM PT Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO

indicates approximate arrival time of numerical model guidance

2008 GTWO2008 GTWO

http://hurricanes.gov/gtwo-example1

http://hurricanes.gov/gtwo-example2l

Benefits of Proposed ChangesBenefits of Proposed Changes Enhances the level of service provided to our users including:Enhances the level of service provided to our users including:

• Increasing availability of the graphical TWO from 2 times daily to 4 Increasing availability of the graphical TWO from 2 times daily to 4 times daily.times daily.

• Categorical genesis forecasts added to the graphical TWO.Categorical genesis forecasts added to the graphical TWO.

Allows better use of latest information and provides more timely Allows better use of latest information and provides more timely information to users. information to users. • Previously, the Atlantic TWOs were based on global model guidance Previously, the Atlantic TWOs were based on global model guidance

that was 9 hours old; this latency will be reduced to 3 hours with the that was 9 hours old; this latency will be reduced to 3 hours with the new issuance time. new issuance time.

Change in issuance times allow better use of products. Change in issuance times allow better use of products. • The current issuance times for the Atlantic TWO does not allow the The current issuance times for the Atlantic TWO does not allow the

information to be easily incorporated into the 5pm or 10pm local information to be easily incorporated into the 5pm or 10pm local evening news programming. evening news programming.

• The current TWO schedule releases the Atlantic TWO after NWS The current TWO schedule releases the Atlantic TWO after NWS WFO’s have already prepared and sent their forecasts.WFO’s have already prepared and sent their forecasts.

The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results and Changes for 2008

Documents