Post on 16-Dec-2015
transcript
The Skills Mismatch: the biggest problem facing the next Government
Lord Baker of Dorking CH
Sunday Times Festival of Education, Wellington College20th June 2014
We know the problem:
In 2013, the top two shortages for jobs worldwide were for skilled trades workers and engineers.
Global Talent Shortage Survey, Manpower Group
The economy is changing
Science
, engin
eering a
nd tech
nolog...
Science
, engin
eering a
nd tech
nology t..
.
Skille
d agricu
lture
L3
Skille
d metal, e
lectrica
l, electr
o...
Skille
d constr
uction L3
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Net growth in job numbers, 2010-20 (thousands)
An even bigger story: the baby boomers are retiring
SET pro
fessionals
SET te
chnici
ans (Le
vel 4
)
Agricu
lture
(Leve
l 3)
Metal/e
lectrica
l (L 3)
Constructi
on (L 3)
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Replacement demandNet growth
(Thousands)
Huge numbers of people will be needed by 2020
• Between 2012 and 2020, we need –– 830,000 SET professionals (degree level)– 450,000 SET technicians (levels 3 and 4)
• SET = science, engineering and technology• Figures include growth + replacement demand (mainly to
replace baby boomers planning to retire)
But supply won’t meet demand• Demand for science, engineering and
technology graduates: 104,000 per year between 2012 and 2020
• Number of new graduates taking UK jobs in SET occupations: 64,000 per year
• Shortfall: 40,000 graduates per year
UNIVERSITIES
Higher education has grown rapidly – but not
in all subjects
Computer science
Engineering/technology
Physical sciences
Creative arts/design
Business/admin
Humanities
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
% Increase in first degrees 2002-12
Percentage of graduates in non-graduate jobs 30 months after graduating, by class of degree
Purcell K, Elias P, Atfield G, Behle H, Ellison R and Luchinskaya D (2013), Futuretrack: Transitions into Employment, Further Study and Other Outcomes. Manchester: Higher Education Careers Services Unit
Employment in retail, catering, waiting and bar jobs six months after completing a first degree in 2012
AGCAS and HECSU (2013), What Do Graduates Do?http://www.hecsu.ac.uk/assets/assets/documents/WDGD_Sept_2013.pdf
Area of study
Percentage of
graduatesin work who had retail, catering,
waiting and bar jobs
Fine Arts 29.0Media Studies 26.7Performing Arts 23.5Design 23.1Sociology 22.7Physical and Geographical Sciences
22.1
History 21.1English 21.4Biology 20.8Law 19.8Psychology 18.9Geography 18.8
Sports Science 17.4Marketing 15.9Politics 15.4Languages 15.2All employed graduates 13.7Business and Management Studies
13.7
Chemistry 13.1Finance and Accountancy 11.3Computer Science and IT 10.5Maths 9.3Physics 9.0Electrical and Electronic Engineering
8.8
Economics 7.9Architecture and Building 7.9Mechanical Engineering 5.6Civil Engineering 4.7
Over the last 20 years, there has been a steady erosion of laboratory skills taught in school science.
Gatsby Charitable Foundation
SCHOOLS
The development of D & T in the UK has seen a move away from a skills-focused curriculum to a knowledge-focused one.
Mike Martin and Gwyneth Owen-Jackson: Is design and technology about making or knowing?
Design and Technology GCSE: only one student in three takes a high-tech option
25%
21%
18%
13%
4%2%
16%
GCSE Design and Technology Entries, 2013
Resistant materialsFood technologyGraphic productsTextiles technologyElectronic productsSystems and controlOther
But Design and Technology GCSE is taken by only one student in three
Took any GCSE Took D&T0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2013 entries
Therefore the proportion of all students taking high-tech options is…
• Resistant Materials: 8.4%• Electronic Products: 1.4%• Systems and Control: 0.6%
• In Austria, technical and vocational education starts at 14.
• In England, most technical and vocational education starts at 16 – two years behind.
FURTHER EDUCATION
Other countries value vocational education more highly …
Hungary UK Denmark Germany Netherlands Austria0
102030405060708090
% young people on vocational courses
…and have lower youth unemployment
Hungary UK Denmark Germany Netherlands Austria0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% of under 25s who are unemployed
The connection is obvious
Hungary UK
Denmark
German
y
Netherla
nds
Austria
0
20
40
60
80
% young people on vocational courses% youth un-employment
Number of 16-24s starting
apprenticeships in 2011/12
% change since 2010/11
Business, admin and the law 80,320 14.5%
Retail and commercial enterprise 63,670 7.6%
Health, public services and care 49,910 10.5%
Engineering and manufacturing 38,100 6.8%
Percentage of each age group participating in apprenticeships at the end of 2012
We need new specialist
institutions“Smaller specialist units, including
University Technical Colleges, should be created with stronger linksto business, commerce and industry.”
Sir Michael Wilshaw, Her Majesty’s Chief InspectorUnseen Children, speech, 20 June 2013
New pathways:University Technical
Colleges
The 50 approved
UTCs
Some employers partnering with UTCs
Universities partnering with UTCs
New pathways:Career Colleges
Career Colleges• Established by further education colleges subjects
linked to labour market – hospitality, catering, tourism, financial science, digital graphic art.
• Employers:• partners in designing and delivering the curriculum• 40% of career college board members
• Progression to apprenticeships, higher education and employment
• Two pioneering Career Colleges opening in September 2014 in Bootle and Oldham.
New institutions will make a huge difference
– but they are not enough on their own.
Every school should have a link with engineering and manufacturing.
My recommendations• Get in touch with your local school. Don’t take “no”
for an answer.
• Rally behind a smaller number of big initiatives in schools.
• Support teachers, especially in Design and Technology.
• Get a 3D printer into every school.
A FINAL THOUGHT
A target for all schools:
NO NEETS
So support UTCs!