Post on 08-Jul-2020
transcript
TheStateofIPv6GeoffHuston
ChiefScientist,APNICLabs
Up and to the Right…
2013 2015 2017
9% of users have IPv6
But not everywhere
62%
IPv6 Deployments in 2016Sky
Jio (Reliance)
Claro
OTE
Where are the IPv6 Gaps?
Eastern Europe
Most of Asia
Africa
Where are the IPv6 Gaps?
Eastern Europe
Most of Asia
Africa
The Dual Stack Transition
Time
Population of the Internet IPv6 Deployment
We are here!
The Dual Stack Transition
Time
Population of the Internet IPv6 Deployment
IPv4 DeploymentCrunch
Time!
The next few years…
SofarwehavebeenconvertingsinglestackIPv4toDualStack(addingIPv6)
AtsomepointinthenearfuturesomeproviderswillstopsupportingIPv4andofferIPv6onlyservices
Noone willwaituntilthelastIPv4-onlyuserhasshiftedtoDualStack– thiswillhappenwellbeforethat
WhenwillremainingIPv4-onlyusers,networksandserviceswillbeleftstrandedinavisiblysmallersubsetoftheInternet?
This“CrunchTime”willbedeterminedbymarketforcesandeconomicpressures
A GDP-based Market Valuation of IPv4 and IPv6 Service Providers
ASN Name CC Users V4Value($B) V6Users V6Value($B)1 AS7922 COMCAST-7922-ComcastCableCommunications,Inc. US 53,000,000 2,900 34,000,000 1,8672 AS4134 CHINANET-BACKBONENo.31,Jin-rongStreet CN 311,000,000 2,334 1,000,000 113 AS7018 ATT-INTERNET4-ATTServices,Inc. US 29,000,000 1,616 24,000,000 1,3074 AS4837 CHINA169-BACKBONECNCGROUPChina169Backbone CN 159,000,000 1,196 0 35 AS3320 DTAGDeutscheTelekomAG DE 21,000,000 1,020 10,000,000 5236 AS701 UUNET-MCICommunicationsServices,Inc.dbaVerizonBusiness US 15,000,000 856 0 57 AS3215 AS3215OrangeS.A. FR 18,000,000 817 4,000,000 1828 AS17676 GIGAINFRASoftbankBBCorp. JP 20,000,000 728 5,000,000 2139 AS4713 OCNNTTCommunicationsCorporation JP 18,000,000 689 1,000,000 4110 AS20115 CHARTER-NET-HKY-NC-CharterCommunications US 12,000,000 677 0 111 AS22773 ASN-CXA-ALL-CCI-22773-RDC-CoxCommunicationsInc. US 11,000,000 634 4,000,000 22412 AS2516 KDDIKDDICORPORATION JP 17,000,000 623 8,000,000 29313 AS5607 BSKYB-BROADBAND-ASSkyUKLimited GB 13,000,000 623 11,000,000 52314 AS2856 BT-UK-ASBritishTelecommunicationsPLC GB 13,000,000 609 1,000,000 4815 AS5089 NTLVirginMediaLimited GB 12,000,000 560 0 016 AS12322 PROXADFreeSAS FR 12,000,000 552 3,000,000 15317 AS1221 ASN-TELSTRATelstraPtyLtd AU 9,000,000 546 1,000,000 9618 AS3269 ASN-IBSNAZTelecomItaliaS.p.a. IT 12,000,000 447 0 019 AS22394 CELLCO-CellcoPartnershipDBAVerizonWireless US 8,000,000 442 7,000,000 40020 AS3209 VODANETVodafoneGmbH DE 9,000,000 432 0 0
TOTAL 3,275,934,751 51,797 263,017,762 9,496
18%
Market Dynamics
Attheendof2016,theDualStackuserpopulationrepresentsatotalGDP-basedvalueof$9.4T,or18%ofthetotalvalueoftheInternet’sIPv4userbase
IfweusedARPUorsimilarmetricsrelatingtorevenueandmargins,therecentmobile-basedDualStacknetworkswouldcarryafarhigherrelativevalueperuserthanolderwirelinenetworks,sothisisalowboundestimateoftheIPv6valuebase
WhatisthethresholdvaluethatwouldallowaserviceprovidertooperateaIPv6-onlyserviceandwriteofftheresidualIPv4-onlyloss?
“CrunchTime”happenswhenwereachthatthreshold!
It’spossiblethatwecouldstarttoseethisshiftinthecoming12months
Itsverylikelythatthiswillhappenwithin24months
Thanks!