Post on 08-Feb-2017
transcript
UAS Industry Growth: Forecasting Impact on Regional Infrastructure,
Environment, and Economy
Corey Snipes - Mosaic ATM, Inc.Rocky Mountain UAS Professionals Meetup
October 26, 2016
UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Safety Flight Risk Analysis – NASA AVIATE Project Contingency Planning & Management – Aviate Project File and Fly Visualization Tools - IR&D Non-GPS Navigation in the Terminal Area - Air Force Threat Tracking - Navy, Boeing 4D Trajectory Prediction - Navy
Command & Control Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) of Air Traffic Control (ATC) - Air Force Adaptive Task Planning Under Uncertainty - Air Force
Capability Feature Overlay for GIS correction on Video – AFOS for ICOP Navy Optimized Optical Sensing of Complex Terrain - Army Biologically-Inspired Navigation - Army UAV Ground Segment & Mission Planning Functionality - Air Force / Global Hawk
ATM Systems UAS 4D TBO studies Enroute, and Metroplex and Weather Effects on Capacity, Routing, and Airspace Design ATC and airline operations Trajectory routing research UAS Dynamic Airspace Configuration
Aviation Standards Development – RTCA SC-203 and RTCA SC-228 Volpe Center Studies - UAS Demand and NAS Impacts UAS Demand Forecasting – UAXPAN NASA SBIR Phase II UA Teams --- Maestro, and UA Teamer
System Engineering & Advanced Technologies
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
About Mosaic ATM
UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Funding/Investment Legal and regulatory
Government regulations, policies and procedures (see the state legislators)
Social Privacy, nuisance
Environmental Noise, emissions
Economic Certification, training, manufacturing
3
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Forecasting Is Important
UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Current Forecasts
“2.7 M commercial / 4.3 M recreational” – FAA“170 K commercial / 12 M recreational” – Idate Research
UAVs in 2020
“$US 10.9 Billion” – The Teal Group“$US 1.7 Billion” – Lux Research
Yearly Global Market in 2025
“$US 82 Billion (US)”– AUVSI “$US 65 Billion (global)” – The Teal Group
Cumulative Market through 2025
CURRENT UAS INDUSTRY FORECASTS AREN’T VERY USEFUL.
Problem:
WE CAN IMPROVE THEM BY INCLUDINGTYPE OF MISSION, AND LOCATION.
Thesis:
7UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Team
8UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Architecture
9UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Original Forecast Research
Growth Curve Equation
Linear
Exponential
Logistic
Gompertz
10UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Forecasting UAV Activity
11UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Governance
• Industry experts review operations/forecasts• The best are promoted and highlighted
12UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Extended Analysis
• Infrastructure• Environment• Economy• …?
FINDINGS
Up Next:
14UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Preliminary UAV Activity Data
Activity 2016 2036Quarry Mining - Materials Auditing 50 4,545Cell Tower Inspection 100 10,000Comm. Building - Energy Audit 100 56,000US Border Patrol 10 100Rice Farm - Crop Dusting 50 15,000Rice Farm - Crop Audits 250 2,500Federal Forests - Inventory 300 302,000Federal Forests - Monitoring Illegal Activity 300 302,000Federal Forests - Operational Planning 250 25,000Federal Forests - Rapid Response 100 10,000Refinery Flare Stack Inspection 50 1,037Closed Set Aerial Photography 100 10,000Insurance Claim Adjustment 100 315,000Walmart Warehouse - Truck Inventory 8 284
(# UAVs)
15UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Preliminary UAV Activity Data
16UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Activity Forecasts With Locations
17UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Location Data Can Be Challenging
18UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Communications Infrastructure
IMPLICATIONS
Up Next:
20UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Outliers
Activity 2016 2036Quarry Mining - Materials Auditing 50 4,545Cell Tower Inspection 100 10,000Comm. Building - Energy Audit 100 56,000US Border Patrol 10 100Rice Farm - Crop Dusting 50 15,000Wind Farm Inspection 1337 100,000Federal Forests - Inventory 300 302,000Federal Forests - Monitoring Illegal Activity 300 302,000Federal Forests - Operational Planning 250 25,000Federal Forests - Rapid Response 100 10,000Refinery Flare Stack Inspection 50 1,037Closed Set Aerial Photography 100 10,000Insurance Claim Adjustment 100 315,000Walmart Warehouse - Truck Inventory 8 284
21UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Consider Location Carefully
22UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
What We Don’t Know
23UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
Detail is Critical for Planning
WHAT WE NEED
Up Next:
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Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs
You Can Help
• System Feedback• Forecast Data• Tools for Extended Analysis• Be Critical of Forecasts
?
UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact
Corey Snipescsnipes@mosaicatm.com(303) 589-2475
Thank You
CW
https://uaxpan.mosaicatm.com/Or, just search for “UAXPAN”
(and request an account)
www.mosaicatm.com