We are well into the next great wave of change---

transcript

http://www.tompeters.com/reimagine/index.php

“We are in the midst of redefining our basic

ideas about what enterprise &

organization & even being human are

about -- how value is created -- how careers

are pursued”-2006

We are well into the next We are well into the next great wave of change---great wave of change---

February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 5

• Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Imagination Officer• Hacker Relations Manager • Human Interface Manager• Valuer of Intangible Assets

Likely jobs w/in next 10 yearsLikely jobs w/in next 10 years

Have Existed since 2003

Why bother with the future

"If you think that you can run an organization in the next 10 years… … as you've run it in the past 10 years…

you're out of your you're out of your mind."mind."

CEO, Coca Cola

““When the rate When the rate of change of change

outside your outside your company company

exceeds the exceeds the rate of change rate of change

inside your inside your company, company, disaster is disaster is imminent”imminent”

Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble

What we were predicting 10 years ago….

What is being Predicted Now:

What the World Will Look Like in 2025

Looking to the future:common mistakes… Making predictions rather than

attaching probabilities to possibilities

Simply extrapolating current trends- (& in isolation of other trends/factors)

Thinking of only one future

Looking to the future: common mistakes…

Beginning in the 1980s examined 27,451 forecasts by 284 academics, pundits and other prognosticatorsThe study was complex, but the conclusion can be summarized simply: the experts bombed. Not only were they worse than statistical models, they could barely eke out a tie with the proverbial dart-throwing chimps.

The least accurate = hedgehogs: “thinkers who ‘know one big thing,’ aggressively extend the explanatory reach of that one big thing into new domains” and “display bristly impatience with those who ‘do not get it,’ ”

Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things,

FUTURE BABBLEWhy Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You

Can Do BetterBy Dan Gardner

305 pp. Dutton. $26.95.

Consider the "Historical Record of Inane Inaccuracies"

“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.

Marshall McLuhan

We look at the present through a rear view mirror”

“It has been moved and seconded that we stick our heads in the sand.”

The Newsonomics of Oblivion (March-2011)

Piecemeal change is a dead-end, given the

converging downward spirals of the business.

Only massive, digital-first strategies and re-

organizations that scrap old structures, budgets, job

descriptions — and, massively, costs

The Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard

Rupert Murdoch iPad daily:

…in the ol’ 2nd Wave World People Subscribed to Media

The point is not so much to predict “the” future…

but to prepare for various contingencies Based on probable

patterns of established trends

The point is not so much to predict “the” future…

but to prepare for various contingencies Based on probable

patterns of established trends

How best to prepare for the future

The Trends are very clear:Increasing: Technological capabilities &

capacities Computing (AI & BI); Nano & Bio-tech;

Communication & Transportation… Population

Decreasing: Resources Separation – Economic, Psycho &

Socio….near total of privacy…

%of GNP

1850 1950 2050

AgricultureManufacturingServices

Long term trends are very clear--

Law of Accelerating Returns

4 Factors Impacting Future Forecasting Accuracy:

Continuous Advance of:

1) Info-Processing Power

2) Data & Text -Algorithms

3) Sensor data

4) Individuals in the InfoSphere

Ergo: How best to think about the future?

Think of the drivers of change

Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future

Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different

Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare

TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres

What “Drivers” Have We Observed?

TechnoSphere DriversTechnoSphere Drivers

Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence

Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives.

"The big trends - - availability of cheap sensors - cheap computing power & ubiquitous connectivity -

by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, & from there the possibilities are endless-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html

•Intelligent Tech•Convergent Media

Radar Networks

Connections between people

Social Networking

Groupware

JavascriptWeblogs

Databases

File Systems

HTTPKeyword Search

USENET

Websites

Directory Portals

Web 1.0 1990 - 2000

PC Era 1980 - 1990

RSSWidgets

PC’s

Office 2.0

SPARQLAJAX

FTP IRC

Mashups

File Servers

Social Media Sharing

Lightweight Collaboration

Web 4.0

Semantic SearchSemantic Databases

Distributed Search

Intelligent personal agents

JavaSaaS

Web 2.0 Flash

SQLGopher

The Web

The PC

Windows

OpenID

MMO’s

Semantic Web

Intelligent Web

The Internet

Social Web

Web OS

Connections between Information

2000 - 2010

2020 - 2030

Web 3.0 2010 - 2020

Change is now underway

Interactive marketing will near $55 billion by 2014

The New Media The New Media

•Created & controlled by the Consumer

•All about individual interests & expression

replaced by

Marketing in the New Economy

New Engage Sense Process Respond

TraditionalTraditional Make Price Distribute Promote

Discussion guided- Data Driven -

Source: March 12, 2010, “Defining Social Intelligence” Forrester report

DRIVES

INSPIRES

CREATES

INFORMS

Social Media is Just One Piece

Social Media is not magic.

Joining Facebook (or Twitter, or LinkedIn) will not revolutionize your company or your marketing.

If you are BORING in real life,you are still boring in social media.

If you think social mediawill fix your business…

You’re notsmellingthe bullsh*t.

Get your noseexamined.

You still need to:identify your audience.get them to notice you.create value for them.sell something to them.keep them happy.

None of this has changed.

There are MANY marketing tools.

Use them all together for the best results.

Incorporate a Full Mix of Media

Paid Media“The Catalyst”

Owned Media“The Portable Brand”

Earned Media“The Result”

Integrated marketing weaves together multiple elements

Consumer buying cycle

Engagement Experience Relationship

Mass media

New Media

Social networking

“Adver-vising”

Twitter

Call center

Direct & EmailCRM

Events

Social marketing

Off & On-linePromotion

New Business Model Tenets

Leverage Economies of the Long Tail

Utilize OPEN Source & Cloud Services

Use Peer production (UGC), Networking & Collaboration

Leverage Collective Intelligence

Pass Labor +Resource Savings to Customer

Permission Consumers choose w/ whom & when to engage

Personal Consumers tap self selected networks

Precise Communicate/relate w/ consumers in Real time & @ Right time

Partip-ulation Consumers participate in own manipulation

The best way to predict the future is to invent it–

Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface

“computer in a pen”

Concluding Predictions

We are well into the next great wave of change---

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