Post on 08-Aug-2015
transcript
Wheat for the FutureMilan, Italy 3 June 2015
Where Wheat Really Matters: ‘The Americas’
Vince PetersonVice President of Overseas Operations
First…a word about wheat…
At 220+ MHA#1 in Area
At 700+ MMT#2 in Production
At 160+ MMT#1 in Trade
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1
The America’s: Historical Place in the World Wheat Market
Total World Wheat Trade
Americas Wheat Exports
Americas Market Share %
1000 MT
‘The Americas’ in 2015 Wheat by the numbers… (5 year averages)
Harvesting 37 MHA Producing 113 MMT Consuming 81 MMT Surplus Available for Export* 32 MMT (*To others outside of the Americas)
‘The Americas’ – Harvested Land AreaIn 1,000 HA by crop
‘The Americas’ – Harvested Land AreaIn 1,000 HA by crop
2050
Linear Trend Line Approx 25 MHA
Current Area 37 MHA
30 MHA
MT/HA
2050
2.25+ MT/HA
MT/HA
3+ MT/HA
Population Growth Driven Demand
2015: 956 million Latin America 601 millUSA/Canada 355 mill
2050: 1.240 billion Latin America 750 millUSA/Canada 490 mill
@ 35 MHA
@ 30 MHA
@25 MHA
35MMT
15 MMT
ZeroNegative
Clearly, there is an imperative to act now:
Wheat Yields: “Still achieving; still pursuing.” H.W. Longfellow While conventional breeding to date has always focused on
increasing yields, we ask for more, as N. American wheat breeders are also being charged to set high standards and make continued improvements to function and end use performance.
Technology: “All hands on deck!” Naval boatswain's call to urgent assembly
Transgenic technology will be an answer, but it is probably not the only answer. Innovation via alternative technologies and advanced breeding methods may actually bring the first unique improvements and novel traits to wheat. We must support them all.
Land Area: “Show me the money!” character Rod Tidwell in Jerry McGuire
In order to attract lost land back to wheat production, higher wheat prices and returns are needed compared to competing crops. The market will recognize this - eventually.
Thank you for the opportunity to explore some important
ideas together.