Post on 19-Dec-2015
transcript
Why E/3?
Dr. Kelly Kissock
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Department of Renewable and Clean Energy
University of Dayton
What on Earth Are These?
World Energy Use
World Population
World Economic Output
Converting Heat to Work
Since pre-history we knew how to:
Work Heat
Industrial Revolution to:
Work Heat
Newcomen’s Steam Engine~1712
Revolutionary Change
Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%
Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50%
Transforms family: parents leave home to work
Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad
Technology and population explode
Economic Explosion
From 1700-2000, per capita US/Europe income grows from $600 to $18,000 per year
Increases 30x!
Energy Revolution Creates Modern World
Single Most Important Event in Human History
We’ve Come a Long Way…
Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5% Watt’s steam engine: 1% Gasoline engines: 30% Coal Rankine cycles: 35% Turbines: 40% Diesel engines: 50% Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines:
60%
But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged…
1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels
2. Employ combustion to release heat CH4+2 (O2) = CO2+2 (H20) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion
84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels
In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005
Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973
Actual U.S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972)
Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html
Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000
Cambell’s World Oil Peak
ASPO World Oil Peak
World OilNear Peak Production
Peak production = 2015 Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994
0
5
10
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1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
BB
Hubbert Curve Actual
EIA’s World Oil Peak
Extreme Oil
“Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.”
Simon Dyer
Canada’s Oil Sands
Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia; #1 source of imported oil for US (22%) GHG production from processing 400% greater than domestic oil, but
well-to-wheel increase 5% - 15% greater Surface mining (20%):
• Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil• 1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings• Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed• 1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond
In situ mining (80%):• Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface• Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process
Deep Water Drilling
Gulf of Mexico• 6,000 wells• Progressively deeper
water • Deepwater Horizon:
5,000 ft water
Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/
Brazil’s Tupi Field:• 7,200 ft water + 15,000
ft sandstone/rock salt• $1 million/day to operate
platform• “The only political fight
in Brazil is over how to spend its future oil bounty and who gets the lions share.”
Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/
World Natural GasNear Peak Production
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1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
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^1
2 f
t3
Hubbert Curve Actual
Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal,
IEA 2004
World CoalPeak Production 2050?
Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
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10,000
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
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^6
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ns
Hubbert Curve Actual
Consequences of Peak Fuel
• Rising demand and falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices
• Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and cause recessions
• Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing economies and increase trade deficits
• Competition for dwindling supply increase national security risks
• Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)
Environmental Perspective
“Using energy in today’s ways leads
to more environmental damage than
any other peaceful human activity.”
The Economist, 1990.
99% 95% 95%
73% 70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CO2 SO2 NOx VOC CO
95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels
Global CO2 Concentration
• Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm
Coincident Global Warming
Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic
Interference with Global Climate?”,
American Geophysical Union,
2005.
Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4) Atmospheric Molecules
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
Greenhouse Gas Trends
Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”
Historical Temperature and CO2 Correlation
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart”
Hansen, J., 2005, “A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.
Result: Earth Quickly Warming
Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research
Warming Most Pronounced At Poles
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps
Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding
And the List Goes On…
Drought Severe weather Mass extinctions (30% of species lose
range) Accelerating non-linear irreversible
process• Methane release from thawing “perma-
frost”• Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…
Debate?
Consensus view from:• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)• Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)• Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’
Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004):• All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 –
2004 with key words “climate change”.• Found 983 papers• NONE disagreed with consensus position
Time Lags Amplify Effects
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001
Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up
Fossil Fuel Resources
Economy
Energy Out
Atmosphere
Fossil Fuel
Energy
CO2 &Pollution
Linear Model of Production
TechnicalBiological
Ecological Model of Production
Transition to Sustainability IsCentral Challenge of 21st Century
Pre-industrial revolution
Industrial revolution
21st century
TimeToday
OECD / Non-OECD Contributions
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006
US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (NRDC)
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006
US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (ASES)
Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007
California Story
California Energy Efficiency = 1 Billion Cars
US Energy Efficiency = 77% of Demand for New Energy Services
But We Have to Move Even Faster…
Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives
American Institute of Architects (AIA) Sustainability 2030• 50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010• Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by 2030.• Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction
U.S. Green Building Council LEED Certification:• 50% reduction in site energy use for base LEED • 65% Silver• 80% Gold• 100% Platinum
ASHRAE • Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-2004• Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site energy use
U.S. Department of Energy• All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025
University of Dayton: Renewable and Clean Energy
Program
Energy Efficiency• Energy Efficient Buildings• Energy Efficient Manufacturing• Ground Source Heat Pumps• Design of Thermal Systems• Building Energy Informatics
Renewable Energy• Renewable Energy Systems• Solar Energy Engineering• Wind Energy Engineering• Environmental Sustainability
Same Week as “Deep Horizon” Sank
U.S. approves first off-shore wind farm off Cape Cod
Virginia off-shore wind resource could power 750,000 homes, forever
Source: Audubon, 10-11/2010
In Fact:
Atlantic off-shore wind potential = 70% of U.S. electricity
North Dakota is “Saudi Arabia” of wind
10 automakers launch plug-in hybrids by 2012
Source: www.greenzer.com
“Our Choice”
Doing the Math: World
C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E
Business as usual case 2000-2050• Pop increases by 1.5x• $/Pop increases by 4x• E/$ constant• C/E constant• C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C2000
Carbon stabilization case • C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C2000• 3x improvement in energy efficiency• 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy
50% carbon reduction case • 6x improvement in energy efficiency• 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy
EEB Course Goals
Learn how to design buildings that are:• Functional (traditional engineering course)• Economic (better engineering course)• Improve comfort / productivity
(enlightened engineering course)• E/3 (our course)
EXTRA SLIDES
What to do?
Addressing these global problems of resource and environmental constraints on the foundation of our modern economy will no doubt require:
• Social reform • Economic reform• Political reform• Technological innovation
Doing the Math: US
C = Pop x $/Pop x C/$ x E/$ x C/E Business as usual case 2000-2050
• Pop grows at 1% from 275M to 450M is increase of 1.6• $/Pop grows at 2% is increase of 2.7• E/$ constant• C/E constant• C2050 = 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 4.3 C2000
Carbon stabilization case: C2050 = 0.5 C2000• C2050 = 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x (E/$) / 4.3 x (C/E) / 2 = 0.5
C2000
Continued development requires:• Factor 4 increase in energy efficiency• Factor 2 reduction in carbon intensity of energy
Stabilization Wedges Atmospheric CO2 concentration
• Pre-industrial = 280 ppm• Current = 380 ppm• Best case target = stabilize at 500 ppm in 2050
(1 C above 2000 temperature)
Stabilizing at 500 ppm by 2050:• World: C emissions constant at 7 GtC/yr (BAU = 14
GtC/yr)• US: C emissions reduced 50% to 0.7 GtC/yr (BAU = 2.7
GtC/yr)
Possible by realizing “wedges”
World Carbon Stabilization Scenario
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006
Energy Resources Becoming Increasingly Scarce
Fossil Fuel Resources
Economy
Fossil Fuel
Energy
Linear Model of Production
Cost of Electricity Resources
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EnergyEfficiency
PulverizedCoal
Coal IGCC Nuclear Nat. GasCombined
Cycle
Biomass Wind
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w/o carbon w/ $20/ton carbon
Source: Elliott, R.N., “America’s Energy Straightjacket”, ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, 2007.
U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost
Source: Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March
Remarkably
Energy Efficiency• Increases business competitiveness• Increase resource availability• Increases environmental health
Energy Efficiency isTHE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT
ECONOMY
Government Programs
U.S. Department of Energy• Energy audits
Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized manufacturers
Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump energy audits for large manufactures
• Energy system software and best practice case studies
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency• E3 energy, waste and productivity audits
Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020• DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient
equipment and retrofits.
International Standards
ISO Standards• 9001 Quality• 14001 Environment• 50001 Energy
Requires energy management personnel and organizations within a company to determine baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency targets, identify and implement energy efficiency opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements.
Cost of Energy Efficiency
“25% of total electricity usage can be saved cost effectively, at an average of 3 cents or less per kWh.”
“New generation sources cost 5 cents or more per kWh, making efficiency the lowest cost electricity resource”
Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
Cost of Energy Efficiency
"Energy efficiency is … the cheapest and most efficient way to reduce emissions by the United States”
“Policymakers worldwide should make efficiency central to their efforts to reduce the emission and harmful impact of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.”
Source: “For Now, at Least, Efficiency May Be the Best Tool for Reducing Carbon Emissions, Experts Say”, American Association for Advancement of Science, 1/2010
U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost
Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March
How it Started
1976 SDGE wants to build new nuclear plant to bridge gap between expected demand and supply
Art Rosenfeld tells Gov. Brown that energy efficiency standards on household refrigerators will save more energy than nuclear plant will generate.
California embarks on energy-efficiency path
California Today
Per capita energy use fourth lowest Emits half CO2 per $ as rest of U.S. Generates most renewable
electricity Most patents and most capital
invested in “cleantech” companies
Denmark Story
1973 99% of energy imported 80% of economy is agricultural
2009 Low-carbon energy-efficiency green-job economy Control world wind turbine market 17% of energy from renewable energy Net energy exporter Meet Kyoto CO2 standards 3.7% unemployment Trade and fiscal surplus
Source: Arne Petersen, Ambassador of Denmark,Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009
United Kingdom Story
• Implemented Regulatory framework Incentives and penalties 7 fold increase in renewable energy
• “Want to be first movers..”• “Market is colossal”
Ultra low-carbon and electric vehicles Carbon capture and storage for all new plants by 2020.
• “Can and will be no return to high-carbon low-cost energy economy”
• “Utterly confident that we will achieve 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.”
• “Stabilize bills by increasing efficiency while prices rise”
Source: Joan Ruddock, Energy Minister, United Kingdom,Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy,
10/2009
The US Story?