The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church (U

transcript

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA 1

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.)

Chris McMillan

Methodist University

Abstract

Membership in the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) (PCUSA) has been

on a steady decline since 1965 and shows no signs of abatement.

This paper presents demographic and statistical data from a

variety of sources to illustrate the decline in membership and

will answer two basic questions: 1) What are the causes, both

real and perceived, behind this decline, and 2) What steps can

denominational leadership take to reverse this trend?

Information from the Presbyterian Church USA national website

(http://www.pcusa.org ) , interviews with denominational leaders at

both the Presbytery and individual church levels, numerous

articles in both the denominational and secular press, and

interviews with individual Presbyterian Church goers are

presented in order to demonstrate the gap in perception of the

issue between church leaders and congregants. Recommendations

are then made as to how best to bridge this gap in perception and

thus provide an opportunity to engage in efforts that will

increase membership in the PCUSA.

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church USA

Membership in the Presbyterian Church USA (PCUSA) reached a

high of 4.3 million members in 1965 but has been declining since

that time (see Appendix A). Member losses in 2012 and 2013 were

the largest declines in membership since the mid-seventies. Not

only is the denomination losing individual members, the number of

churches is down as well. There were 224 fewer churches in the

denomination in 2013 than in 2012 and half of those churches

still left in the denomination have less than 89 members and no

installed pastor. Deaths of members in 2013 outpaced baptisms by

6,222 and transfers into the denomination by profession of faith

were down by 5,332 from 2012 to 2013. The pace of decline in

membership is not sustainable. Extending this trend into the

future leads to the conclusion that the denomination could

potentially cease to exist within fifteen years (Kincaid, 2014).

Two questions immediately come to mind. What drives this

decline and what steps can be taken to reverse this trend? The

answers to those questions depend on who is asked. Leaders at

the national and presbytery levels tend to either ignore the

issue or point to the disengagement of the membership from the

leadership of the denomination. Grass-roots members argue that

the theology of the denominational leadership does not mesh well

with the thinking of a majority of the congregants and even if it

did, leadership at the national and presbytery levels has never

made much of an effort to engage and/or support the individual

congregations. Both sides support their arguments passionately,

but while church goers and leadership are at odds, the

denominational boat continues to leak members, pastors, and whole

congregations at an alarming rate.

By the Numbers

According to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life,

51.3% of adult Americans are Protestant, with 18.1% of adults

belonging to mainline Protestant churches, of which the PCUSA is

a part. Based on figures from the United States Census Bureau,

the population of the United States is nearly 319 million, which

puts the number of mainline Protestants at almost 58 million

(Pew, 2014) . Baptists comprise the largest subsection of

Protestants with Methodists, Lutherans, and Pentecostals

following. Presbyterians fall in line next in terms of

membership with 2.7% of the total adult population. However, the

PCUSA can only claim less than half that total for an overall

membership of 1.8 million, according to Research Services of the

PCUSA (see Appendix A). The Pew research notes that:

Although scholars contributing to this research have adopted

a variety of definitions of major religious groups and

pursued various approaches to measuring change over time,

all the research arrives at a similar conclusion: The

proportion of the population that is Protestant has declined

markedly in recent decades while the proportion of the

population that is not affiliated with any particular

religion has increased significantly. (Pew, 2014)

This downward trend in Protestant membership is also

substantiated by the General Social Surveys (GSS) conducted by

the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago

from 1972 to 2006. This survey also shows a decline in

membership in Protestant churches overall. However, according to

a Gallup survey released in December 2013, the number of

Americans who report attending church has remained fairly steady

since 1950, and, since 1965 it has been almost constant at 40% ±

3 percentage points. (See Appendix B) Based on these surveys, it

is clear that church attendance is not down, but membership in

Protestant churches is. This decline in Protestant membership is

especially troubling for the PCUSA as they are relatively small

to begin with, so further declines in membership are more

critical for them as opposed to denominations with larger

populations. Furthermore, Presbyterians have a lower rate of

retention than most of the other Protestant denominations.

Approximately 60% of adults who were raised Presbyterian have

switched religious affiliation as adults. This low retention

rate combined with the net loss of members between deaths and

converts referenced earlier signals a trend that, if it

continues, will render the denomination virtually obsolete in the

next 15 to 20 years. This demise may be hastened once the

denomination falls below a critical mass of members necessary to

keep itself viable practically and financially. The one bright

spot in the numbers may be that of the 60% of those who were

Presbyterian as children and then left the denomination, 36%

moved to another Protestant denomination, with about half going

to an evangelical denomination and the other half going to

another mainline denomination. This would seem to indicate that

it’s not a change in religious beliefs on the part of the

individual members that is driving this movement away from the

PCUSA, but rather that these people have become disenchanted with

the PCUSA itself. While it may seem unusual to see this as a

positive, it indicates that the PCUSA may control its own

destiny. A major change in religious beliefs by the population

at large would indicate that factors outside the scope of control

of the denomination are at work, whereas disenchantment with the

denomination is completely within the scope of control of the

denomination.

Differing Viewpoints

Given the data provided by the PCUSA, how has the

denominational leadership responded to the issue of declining

membership? It seems to depend on the level of denominational

leadership that is referenced. The Reverend Gradye Parsons,

Stated Clerk of the General Assembly of the PCUSA, stated in a

May 29, 2014, news release from the Office of the General

Assembly of the PCUSA:

Yes, the numbers reflect a decrease in active members in the

denomination, but the numbers also illustrate fewer losses

than the previous year. The membership declined by 89,296

in 2013, compared to 102,791 in 2012. We are meeting the

challenges we have had and it’s showing, and our decline in

total congregations is holding fairly steady. (PCUSA, 2014)

In a presentation to the PCUSA Board of Pensions on April

17, 2013, Parsons addresses the declining number of members and

acknowledges that although numbers for the PCUSA are declining:

The fact that fewer Americans say they have a religious

identity does not necessarily mean there has been a

decrease in overall religiosity in America. It is

possible that some proportion of those who don’t

identify with a specific religion are still personally

or spiritually religious. (Parsons, 2013)

Parsons is addressing the issue of that portion of the

population referred to as the “Nones”, those people who say they

are spiritual or religious, but do not affiliate with a

particular denomination. In short, he seems to pawn some of the

issue of declining membership in the PCUSA off on general trends

in society. However, even after acknowledging declines in

membership and the increase in people who are not religiously

affiliated and the increase in people who aren’t even interested

in becoming affiliated, his stated strategy is that the PCUSA

must think for itself, stand for what it believes, become more

multicultural, love everyone, and hope for a positive outcome.

To quote Rudy Giuliani from his September 2008 Republican

National Convention speech, “hope is not a strategy.” More

should be expected from the leader of a denomination that has

been losing members steadily for forty years than a strategy of

“let’s hope for the best.”

The viewpoint from the Presbytery level seems to be similar

to that at the national level. In an email exchange with a

mission coordinator from the Presbytery of Coastal Carolina, when

posed with the question of whether denominational leadership

played any part in the decline, the response was:

There have been many articles and studies done on mainline

decline. Few of those articles pin the decline on

“denominational leadership” as you mention. There are cases

made for cultural shifts, lack of denominational loyalty,

lower birth rates, churches frozen in the 1950’s style and

music, poorly trained pastors (introverts/no evangelism

training), endowment funds removing accountability, people

moving to the suburbs, the appeal of “Mall style” churches

with coffee shops, children’s programs like music and art,

multimedia sermons, etc. There is decline is in the Southern

Baptist church, the PCUSA, Lutheran, Methodist, and more.

Many people are shifting to non-denominational churches.

Remember that decline happens in local churches over time.

In the case of PCUSA we have entire congregations leaving to

other reformed bodies which skews the numbers. (Personal

communication, August 26, 2014)

While Presbytery seems to have a somewhat more definite

strategy to address the issue of declining membership, their

attitude towards this issue is that the fault for the decline

rests solely with the individual congregations. Presbytery is

currently executing a Listening, Learning, Dreaming Together

project which involves a committee from the Presbytery conducting

face to face interviews with members seeking ideas on how to

strengthen the denomination. Presbytery also offers one-on-one

coaching with congregations seeking to make better use of their

resources and to expand their opportunities for ministry.

However, the general mood of the Presbytery seems to be that if

participation in programs such as these isn’t happening, the

individual congregations are to blame for not taking advantage of

Presbytery’s offerings. It doesn’t seem to occur to them that

low participation rates could be due to a lack of perceived

quality in the programs offered or poor communication of the

existence of the programs. Perhaps low participation rates could

even be due to a lack of trust in Presbytery by the individual

congregations.

The view from the individual congregation and member level

is revealing. In the response section of the article “2012

Statistics Show Dramatic Decrease in PCUSA Membership,

Congregations” (Kincaid, 2014) quotes such as the following

appear:

I was a member of Presbyterian USA (sic) and left

because the church has left the bible, tradition,

prayer, faith and grace behind. My former church, a

website in Cincinnati does not mention the words Jesus

or Christ. The minister offered no personal prayer! The

church became a social service organization, nothing

more. If the central body and the ministers have no

faith that Christ is the Savior, that the bible is the

word of God, that a worship service is to honor God

almighty, then this church holds neither meaning nor

hope for hundreds of thousands of Presbyterians. That

is why we left and are seeking the gospel in other

churches.

I wonder if the national office really cares whether it

has people in the pews. If they were just a national

office operating off the earnings from the

denomination’s endowments they would be entirely free

to pursue their liberal political impulses, just

another Washington political lobby, one that uses

“Jesus” words.

I would be interested in participating in a

constructive discussion of a couple points in the

article. Specifically, “The 2012 statistics challenge

us as Presbyterians to connect with the ever-growing

number of those with no religious affiliation,” and

“Why not study them [churches that are growing in this

environment] and invest the denomination’s significant

resources in retooling itself to become a more

effective proponent of the gospel?” We’ve all heard the

definition of insanity, “repeating the same actions but

expecting a different outcome.” There are two paths

then; to change what we are doing or be irrelevant and

crazy! The Great Commission directs us to make

disciples – if we can be found faithful to that, then I

think size will take care of itself. The goal is not to

be the biggest church, but like the old Wendy’s

commercial, “Where’s the beef?!” God grant us wisdom.

These comments echo many of the thoughts expressed over the

years by large numbers of PCUSA members. Individual members

consistently point to the lack of a Scriptural basis in preaching

and worship, the disconnect in communication between the upper

levels of the organization and the grassroots, and the apparent

lack of a change in course from the leadership when it seems

obvious the current course is ineffective in retaining members.

Blogger Jacob Lupfer captures the grassroots mood well in his

June 21, 2014, blog entry “Is the PCUSA *that* Liberal? Yes.”

(Lupfer, 2014) He specifically points to the diverging viewpoints

on important social and theological issues between the laity and

the pastors of the PCUSA. He points directly to this divergence

as a major reason for the mass defections from the denomination.

Conclusions and Recommendations

What conclusions can we draw from the data and the divergent

expressions of viewpoints? It is obvious that the national and

presbytery levels of leadership are not in synch theologically

with many of the individual churches they serve. This is

evidenced both by the mass of negative comments from individuals

towards the leadership and the exodus of so many whole

congregations to other denominations. National leadership has

not expressed a concrete strategy to address the decline in

membership. Leadership at the Presbytery level is attempting to

address the issue, but is either not hearing or hearing and not

acting upon the voice of their customers, the individual

congregations. While it is true many programs exist that purport

to aid congregations with growth and change, the membership has

been on a steady decline for forty years. These programs have

not and are not working. The fact that many congregations refuse

to avail themselves of these programs, for a number of reasons

already stated, indicates that other ideas are needed. The

leadership will argue that they have not contributed to the loss

of members, but at some point the leadership has to take

ownership of the problem and realize that if they are not part of

the solution, they are part of the problem. Taking inappropriate

action, or taking ineffective action, is no better than complete

inaction.

How do we reverse this downward spiral? Three

recommendations come to mind. Certainly this is not an

exhaustive list, but it is a good start at trying new ideas that

attack specific elements of the larger problem.

1. Increase visibility of the church on college campuses.

It is a fact that young people who grow up in the

church drift away in their late teens and early

twenties and don’t return, if they return at all, until

they begin a family. The data shows that the PCUSA has

one of the lowest retention rates of any of the

Protestant denominations (Presbyterian Mission, 2014).

The Baptists have one of the best retention rates and

by no coincidence have one of the most active college

campus programs, the Baptist Student Union, of any of

the denominations. By increasing and enhancing the

analogous Presbyterian campus program, PCUSA could do a

better job of retaining young Presbyterians and

possibly capturing new members. This would also be an

excellent opportunity to give these young adults

opportunities to serve in these churches and possibly

learn how to be church leaders, such as elders,

deacons, and Sunday school teachers.

2. Devote new church development resources to existing

congregations. This seems counterintuitive, but what

is meant here is instead of trying to build new

worshiping communities, begin with existing churches

with small memberships and a high median age of members

and devote resources to recruiting young families with

children into these congregations. Initially it would

be akin to starting a “new “church within an existing

congregation. The existing members could maintain

their status quo with Sunday school classes and social

groups while the new members could form new Sunday

school classes and social groups and possibly even a

separate worship service. The benefit is in leveraging

an existing building, an existing business staff, and

an existing pastor while you are beginning a new,

sustainable worshiping community.

3. Make Presbytery more visible at the local church level.

For many congregations Presbytery is akin to a unicorn;

they’ve heard stories about it but they’ve never

actually seen it. Both Presbytery and the individual

congregations complain about the disconnect between the

two groups, but no one seems to be willing to bridge

the gap. Presbytery should establish a visitation

committee and commit to at least one visit by a

committee member to every church in the Presbytery at

least once over the course of a year. Certainly this

will take a moderate amount of dedicated volunteers,

but it also is a show of action on the part of

Presbytery that it is serious about improving relations

with the congregations. It also provides Presbytery

with the opportunity to listen to the voice of its

customers and collect information that can be used to

make its programs more customer-focused and effective.

The PCUSA did not arrive at its current low membership

numbers overnight and it will not reverse the trend of

declining membership quickly. However, to continue to

follow programs and policies that have only led to a loss of

members every year for the last forty years is ludicrous.

New avenues must be pursued and denominational leadership

must lead the way. Otherwise, the individual members will

blaze their own paths and to this point that has been a path

out of the denomination.

Year Reported M em bership

Year to Year

Change

Percent Change

1965 42545971966 4249765 -4832 -0.114%1967 4225247 -24518 -0.577%1968 4187154 -38093 -0.902%1969 4125934 -61220 -1.462%1970 4049391 -76543 -1.855%1971 3966443 -82948 -2.048%1972 3863293 -103150 -2.601%1973 3723411 -139882 -3.621%1974 3622649 -100762 -2.706%1975 3544099 -78550 -2.168%1976 3493326 -50773 -1.433%1977 3439130 -54196 -1.551%1978 3382783 -56347 -1.638%1979 3330075 -52708 -1.558%1980 3272518 -52708 -1.583%1981 3211025 -57557 -1.759%1982 3166050 -61493 -1.915%1983 3131228 -44975 -1.421%1984 3100951 -34822 -1.112%1985 3057226 -30277 -0.976%1986 3016488 -43725 -1.430%1987 2976937 -40738 -1.351%1988 2938830 -39551 -1.329%1989 2895706 -38107 -1.297%1990 2856045 -43124 -1.489%1991 2815045 -39661 -1.389%1992 2780406 -75639 -2.687%1993 2742192 -38214 -1.374%1994 2698262 -43930 -1.602%1995 2665276 -32986 -1.222%1996 2631466 -33810 -1.269%1997 2609191 -22275 -0.846%1998 2587674 -21517 -0.825%1999 2560201 -27473 -1.062%2000 2525330 -34871 -1.362%2001 2493781 -31549 -1.249%2002 2451969 -41812 -1.677%2003 2405311 -46658 -1.903%2004 2362136 -43175 -1.795%2005 2313662 -48474 -2.052%2006 2267118 -46544 -2.012%2007 2209546 -57572 -2.539%2008 2140165 -69381 -3.140%2009 2077138 -63027 -2.945%2010 2016091 -61047 -2.939%2011 1952287 -63804 -3.165%2012 1849496 -102791 -5.265%

Appendix A

PCUSA Membership Numbers 1965 – 2012 (Presbyterian Mission, 2014)

Appendix B

December 2013 Gallup Survey on Church Attendance (Gallup, 2014)

References

Gallup. (2014). December 2013 Survey on Church Attendance. Retrieved

from http://www.gallup.com/poll/166613/four-report-

attending-church-last-week.aspx

Jackson, Toya R. May 29, 2014. Stated Clerk Releases PC(USA) 2013

Statistics. Presbyterian News Services. Retrieved from

http://www.pcusa.org/news/2014/5/29/stated-clerk-releases-

pcusa-2013-statistics/

Kincaid, Paula R. June 4, 2013. 2012 Statistics Show Dramatic

Decrease in PCUSA Membership, Congregations. The Layman Online.

Retrieved from http://www.layman.org/2012-statistics-show-

dramatic-decrease-in-pcusa-membership-congregations/

Kincaid, Paula R. June 4, 2014. PCUSA Membership Declines Again

in 2013. The Layman Online. Retrieved from

http://www.layman.org/pcusa-membership-declines-2013/

Lupfer, Jacob. (2014, June 21). Is the PCUSA *that* Liberal? Yes.

[Web log comment]. Retrieved from

http://www.jacoblupfer.com/blog/2014/6/21/is-the-pcusa-that-

liberal-yes

Parsons, Gradye. April 17, 2013. The Changing Church. [PowerPoint

slides]. Retrieved from http://vimeo.com/64906127

PewResearch Religion & Public Life Project. (2014). Religious

Landscape Survey. Retrieved from

http://religions.pewforum.org/reports#

Presbyterian Mission Agency Research Services. (2014). Comparative

Statistics. Retrieved from

https://www.presbyterianmission.org/ministries/research/stat

istics-reports-and-articles/

The Declining Membership of the Presbyterian Church (U

Documents