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Adaptation
Energy and Environment PracticeCommunity of Practice Meeting
24-26 September, 2007Bratislava, Slovak Republic
2UNDP Environment and Energy Group 2
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
content
•Adaptation portfolio - current status;•Adaptation funds – funding availability;•Barriers to funding for RBEC; •Vulnerability – to guide programming;•Risks and adaptation needs in the region;
•Options to do Adaptation;•Three-pronged approach;•Main services;•Armenian Case Study;•Key takeaways;
3UNDP Environment and Energy Group 3
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
PortfolioAgreed portfolio target for the region – $12.9 millionActual Status:• Internal pipeline since 2005: 8 projects worth of $10.9m;• None has materialised yet;
• SPA: – Balaton Lake project - the only adaptation project in the region;– Albania and Armenia PIFs submitted;
• SCCF:• 5 projects worth of $6,165,000 • No actual projects – only hopeshopes
• MDG-F: 2 projects submitted – Macedonia, Turkey.• Some good news: INC/SNC in 12 countries of the region to
support initial step towards adaptation - V&A
4UNDP Environment and Energy Group 4
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
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LDCF SPA SCCF Adaptation(estimated 2012)
Adaptation Funding Forecast
Total funding Funds remaining
The Adaptation Fund promises to be substantial (around $1 billion by 2012)…
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5UNDP Environment and Energy Group 5
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Barriers to funding for adaptation in ECIS
Region suffers from politics around adaptation funding
• Current status of funding favors Least Developed Countries
• Region is not most vulnerable to climate change (see next slide)
• Focus for CDM is Asia (especially China)
ECIS countries will need to diversify their funding sources identify non-traditional opportunities screen current investment decisions for climate risk
6UNDP Environment and Energy Group 6
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Identifying high-risk countries to guide strategic programming
Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability
Historic hazards
Historic mortality outcomes to flood, drought, and cyclones (1980-2000)
Source: Dilley et al. 2005
Projected hazards
Likelihood of future climate extremes (flood, drought, cyclone)
Source: IPCC Assessment Report 4, 2007
VulnerabilityVulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model (VRIM) scores based on socio-economic sensitivity (-) & capacity (+), 2000 data
Source: Brenkert & Malone, forthcomingCaveats • Excludes economic damages and displaced people, important risks in many regions. Index is based on national level data, illustrative only• Should be repeated using region-relevant data
Risk =
7UNDP Environment and Energy Group 7
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Africa Asia LAC Arab States Europe CISMozambique (.63)
Bangladesh* (.42) Haiti (.50) Somalia (.31) Tajikistan (.17)
Niger* (.58) Pakistan (.33) Nicaragua (.25) Sudan (.21) Kyrgyzstan (.13)
Burkina Faso (.50)
India (.25) Guatemala* (.25) Yemen (.21) Uzbekistan (.13)
Nigeria (.42) Laos (.19) Honduras (.25) Djibouti (.17) Moldova (.13)
Ethiopia (.38) Philippines (.17) Costa Rica (.25) Morocco* (.17) Georgia (.08)
Lesotho (.38) Nepal (.17)Dominican Rep. (.19)
Algeria (.08)Turkmenistan (.08)
Mali (.38) China (.13) El Salvador (.17) Egypt (.08) Armenia (.06)
Madagascar (.33) Viet Nam* (.13) Jamaica* (.17) Jordan (.08) Azerbaijan (.06)
Angola, Malawi, Togo, Uganda (.31)
Cambodia (.13) Bolivia* (.13) Tunisia (.06) Kazakhstan* (.06)
Bhutan, Malaysia, Iran, Mongolia (.08)
Cuba, Panama (.08)
Do NOT share or quote
Legend: LDCs UNDP Projects *CBA countries
8UNDP Environment and Energy Group 8
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Water shortage Flood risk Fires Sea-level rise hazards
DRIER
Climate change impacts are anticipated across the region
Changes in key climatic parameters are already evident. Europe has warmed more than global average, with a 0.950C increase in last 100 years.
Based on IPCC AR4 (projections for 2080-2099), NCs and other sources
9UNDP Environment and Energy Group 9
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
This translates into crop production decrease up to 30% in Central Asia, even if direct positive physiological effects of CO2 are taken into account
Climate Change poses risks to MDG achievements in RBEC - Food security
10UNDP Environment and Energy Group 10
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Water stressAttributable to observed changes in precipitation and ice and snow cover. Examples:
• Armenia – water reserves in snow have already decreased 5-10%• Azerbaijan - seasonal snow line has risen from 1.300-1.500m to 1.800-2.000m;
subsequently, water resources will be reduced by 5.7 – 7.7 km3
• Macedonia - average discharge will decrease by 10-20% in next 50 years • Kazakhstan - surface water resources in most basins will decrease 9-29% in 50-100 years• Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan - need for water will dramatically increase to sustain
current level of productivity of cotton and cereals (in some instances by 70%). • Albania - total runoff formation already decreased by 10%; will decrease 30% by mid-
century
11UNDP Environment and Energy Group 11
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Human and Economic Losses•Historic mortality on account of flooding has been highest in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
•Economic losses from flooding as proportion of GDP has historically been highest in Turkey, Western Kazakhstan, parts of Russia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, Belarus, Albania, Macedonia
– Azerbaijan: Annual average damages from floods during 1980-1990 estimated at USD 20 million. Value of business assets presently at risk from flooding about USD 3.7 billion (Asian Development Bank)
– Macedonia: Regional floods during past three decades caused total damage estimated at USD 193.8 million
– Turkey: Floods and landslides accounted for 35% of all natural disasters, damaging over 1800 admin units during past 25 years.
12UNDP Environment and Energy Group 12
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Countries at highest risk to climate change, particularly climate-related disasters
Risk score
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The first tier of high risk countries represents the most vulnerable group (low income countries) in the region that should feature as priority countries for adaptation actions.
13UNDP Environment and Energy Group 13
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
The challenge of climate change can be reduced with adaptation
ADAPTATIONEMBEDDING RESILIENCE
THINKING IN DEVELOPMENT
PLANNING
14UNDP Environment and Energy Group 14
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
What are the options to do adaptation in RBEC
15UNDP Environment and Energy Group 15
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
UNDP’s three-pronged approach to adaptation
Mainstreaming climate change risk management into national development strategies is a Key Result Area in the Energy & Environment section of UNDP’s 2008-2011 Strategic Plan.
3. Piloting innovative national adaptation projects to feed lessons into 1 and 2
1. Climate-proofing UN & UNDP country support
2. Embedding resilience thinking into domestic development strategies
16UNDP Environment and Energy Group 16
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Mainstreaming means capturing opportunities in UNDP’s practice areas
Integration into UNDP programming
Integration into national developmentstrategies
M&E framework
Poverty Reduction &
MDG Achievement
Crisis Prevention & Recovery
Environment & Sustainable
Development
Democratic Governance
Agriculture & Food Security
-
Public Health
--
Disaster Risk
Managem’t-
Coastal Developm’t--
Water Resources & Quality
-
UNDP Objective: MDG Achievement with Climate Change
Reducing climate risks and vulnerability
Indicators
Natural Resources--
Working through the UN system: UNDAF/CCA and CPD/CPAP to internalize climate risk management into programming guidance
17UNDP Environment and Energy Group 17
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Tools and services build upon identified demand
UNDP surveyed government, UN agencies, NGOs, private sector and academia to identify stakeholder priorities for adaptation resources
Primary interests related to Adaptation
0 50 100 150 200 250
Other (please specify)
'Mainstreaming' into donor agency procedures
Hard adaptation measures
Financing adaptation
Community-scale projects
Integration across themes
Assessment/ natl adaptation framew orks
'Mainstreaming' into national policies/plans
Soft adaptation measures
18UNDP Environment and Energy Group 18
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
UNDP will offer different levels of service and programming
Step 1: Risk Screening
Step 2: Technical, Policy &
Advisory Services
Step 3: CapacityDevelopment
INTEGRATION OF CLIMATE RISKS INTO UN & UNDP COUNTRY PROGRAMMING
Step 1: Risk
Screening
Step 2: Technical, Policy &
Advisory Services
Step 3: Capacity Development for
Policy Makers
INTEGRATION OF CLIMATE RISKS INTO NATIONALDEVELOPMENT & SECTORAL POLICIES
Preparatory Phase: Country
Climate RiskProfile
19UNDP Environment and Energy Group 19
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Services offered for climate risk profiling
Preparatory Phase: Country
Climate RiskProfile
• Online tool for national risk assessments
• Country Risk Profile
• Guidance document: key steps for assessing and managing climate risks (to come)
• Guidance document: use of climate scenarios in adaptation planning and project design (to come)
20UNDP Environment and Energy Group 20
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
UNDP profiling tool: Online tool for national climate risk assessments
www.undp.org/gef/adaptation
21UNDP Environment and Energy Group 21
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Services and tools for integrating climate risks into UN programming
Step 1: Risk Screening
Step 2: Technical, Policy &
Advisory Services
Step 3: CapacityDevelopment
• UNCT Programming• UNDP Programming• UNDP Projects• Direct Budget Support
• Guidance• Resources• Quality assurance• M&E
• Online training (1 hour)• UNCT training workshop (1 day)• UNDP training workshop (1 day)
Services Tools
• APF/SEA approach• Disaster risk
management approach• Climate risk management
approach
• M&E framework and indicators
22UNDP Environment and Energy Group 22
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Services and tools for embedding resilience thinking into domestic strategies
Step 1: Risk
Screening
Step 2: Technical, Policy &
Advisory Services
Step 3: Capacity Development for
Policy Makers
• NDS/PRS screening• Screening of SWAps/
sector-wide approaches • Economic assessment
of adaptation options
• Guidance• Resources• Quality assurance• M&E
• Policy-maker training workshop (1 day)
Tools
• APF/SEA approach• Disaster risk
management approach• Climate risk management
approach
• M&E framework and indicators
23UNDP Environment and Energy Group 23
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Case Study: Mainstreaming CRM into UNDP’s country programme in Armenia
24UNDP Environment and Energy Group 24
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Extreme weather events and disasters –In 2000 losses from droughts in the sector of agriculture made up $66,7 mln., constituting 10.1% of agricultural gross product. In 2005 the crop yield loses from hail, floods and frost combined made up about $15 mln.Climate aridation and changes in biota – precipitation has decreased by 5.8% and temperature has increased by 0.7°C in Armenia. At present, the forest area damaged annually by insects is approximately 14,500ha (on average). Land productivity – humidity of soil will decrease by 10-30% by mid century and subsequent moisture deficit will impact the plants’ growing capacity. Water stress –The water reserves in snow on whole territory have already decreased by 5-10% during the baseline period (1961-1990). Health issues –Increase in number of malaria morbidities has been detected (e.g., in 1998 the number of people contracting the three-day malaria reached 1156).
25UNDP Environment and Energy Group 25
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
UNDP programme priorities• Laying foundation for sustainable socially-oriented growth• Promoting accountable, transparent and effective governing institutions • Supporting sound management of natural resources Community Development Programme is flagship programme of UNDP - Armenia • Wide coverage – all bordering marzes
(regions)• Community development plans• Performance budgeting• Rehabilitation of rural infrastructure• Communal management, creation of
communal pools of assets
• Regions dependent on agriculture• Extreme weather events may have
negative repercussions
• Without adaptation, CC may make it difficult for certain communities to participate in rural economies
26UNDP Environment and Energy Group 26
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Key vulnerabilities in Armenia:
Hails, Floods, Mudflows
Climate Aridation, Droughts
Aridation, Droughts,
Forest fires, pests
Droughts, Seasonal
Floods, Hails
Droughts, Seasonal
Floods, Hail
27UNDP Environment and Energy Group 27
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Vulnerability
Human
Physical Natural
SocialFinancial
What to do about it?
The basic building blocks -vulnerability and adaptive capacity
( exposure, adaptive capacity)
Hazard
Impact = f
28UNDP Environment and Energy Group 28
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Screening methodology
Main question: Will community development lead to adaptation? May/may not increase adaptive capacity
Human
Physical Natural
SocialFinancial
1. Are pilot/local actions resilient to climate change impacts?
2. Do these investments increase vulnerability to climate change impacts?
Climate risk assessments
29UNDP Environment and Energy Group 29
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
Assessment of risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities:
Screening portfolio
Compiling information & scoping the components of the studyStage 1: Screening
Perception of community about frequency And intensity of extreme weather events and
Climate hazards (floods, mudslides, droughts, etc)
current coping and risk reduction measures
Crop diversification, seasonal switching,Availability of compensation, information,
etc
Type and magnitude of losses (humanLosses, damage to infrastructure, economic
Losses, such as crop failures) Stage 2: Assessment
Adaptation options for development effectivenessImprove access to information; changes in
Cropping and tillage practices;Livelihood diversification;
Addressing adaptation costs in local budgets
Stage 3: Adaptation
‘No regrets’ changes to activities, eg:Increasing resilience to today’s climate variability
Developing climate risk informationContinuum of alterations to activities from some incremental cost
through to 100% incremental costs for adaptation
30UNDP Environment and Energy Group 30
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
End Notes
•Reasons for climate proofing:•Vulnerability to climate risks and disasters is part of social vulnerability and
needs to be addressed as an integral element of poverty reduction and MDG efforts;
•Poverty reduction actions are not “climate-risk” neutral, as they have the potential to either increase or diminish vulnerability to climate change impacts;
•On-going cooperation with BCPR for natural disaster’s prevention creates conducive conditions for adaptation;
•Condition for successful resource mobilization - UNDP needs to internalize climate risk management in its programming guidance
•Adaptation is an opportunity. It can help attract external resources for addressing the risks and capturing adaptation opportunities in UNDP’s poverty, natural resource management and governance programmes.
31UNDP Environment and Energy Group 31
Climate Change Risk Management and Sustainable Human Development: A training course for RBEC senior management
End notes
• SNC is a technical anchor for informing the CRM actions at multiple
scales, supported by different funds;
• SNC quality will precondition success of CRM efforts
• Bring SNC experts into the policy dialogue;
• Strong buy-in by senior management;
• Other practice leaders may feel we add additional work to their portfolio;
• BSPR project can offer a good starting point to address the climate risk management at the baseline;