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© Datamonitor1
Global Consumer Trends
The 10 mega-trends shaping the future of consumer packaged goods
© Datamonitor4
The determinants of consumer behavior
Latent Applied
Thoughts
Actions
Values
Occasions
Attitudes
Behaviors
.
© Datamonitor6
Distinguishing between trends and fads
Factor Trends Fads
What is driving it?
Substantive drivers e.g.Demographics
LifestylesValues
Technology
Transitory factors e.g.Pop cultureCelebrities
FashionMedia
How accessible is it?
Accessible to the mainstream Limited to a target niche
How broad is it?Crosses product category and industry
boundaries as well as demographic groups
Limited to very specific product categories and rarely crosses
demographic groups
How long it lasts At least 10 years A few seasons at most
© Datamonitor7
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor8
Age complexity
Kids growing up young
• Age-specific psychological states among children are contracting, thanks to media and marketing
• Youths aspire to be older:
US Youths: Current age Aspired age
12 17 13 17 14 18 15 18 16 18 17 19
Sources: Developmental Differences in Children and the Challenge of Developmental Compression, Cohen and Cahill, International Journal of Advertising and Marketing to Children; Teenage Research Unlimited
© Datamonitor9
Age complexity
Kidults – adults acting younger
• Contemporary adult attitudes and behaviors increasingly reflect a youthful disposition
“While the age gap between generations has never been bigger as people have children later in life, the attitudinal gap has never been smaller”
IJMAC, October 2003
Seniors enjoying a 2nd youth
• Wild elderly – retirees who can’t take their age seriously and want to have fun
• Seniors see themselves as 12-15 years younger than they actually areSources: Advertising Age; MORI
© Datamonitor10
Age complexity
• Products for kids growing up young
– Solero Shots – ‘swigging action’ to mimic adults drinking
– Junior Horlicks – adult brand repositioned for children
• Adults acting younger
– Macleans 40+
– Sun Valley String Cheese ‘with real olives’
– L’Angelica Anti-Age tea
• Ageless marketing
– Evian ‘Makes you feel young at heart’
– Weetabix ‘Energy for Everyone’
– Nescafe Energo - a ‘universal’ fortified coffee drink for energizing mind and body
© Datamonitor12
Age complexity
Counter-trend: age as identity
• Some seniors are proud of their age
• They want to demonstrate their superior wisdom and abilities – the fact that they have ‘mastered the art of living’
© Datamonitor13
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor14
Gender complexity
The feminization of society and men
• Increasing economic wealth of women
• Men taking a more active role in parenting
• Metrosexuality among men– “Men have now claimed the right to think and act for themselves.
Trendsetters and celebrities have broken stereotypes giving men the freedom and confidence to revolutionize the image that they want to portray of themselves.” (Brand manager, Parfums Jean Paul Gaultier, quoted in Cosmetics International, July 2003)
© Datamonitor15
Gender complexity
Counter trend: gender as identity
• Among men:
– Lads’ mags as a backlash to the feminization of society
• Among women:
– Independence from men
© Datamonitor16
Gender complexity
Counter trend: gender as identity
• Products targeting gender as identity
– Nestle Yorkie bar
– LUNA bars
© Datamonitor17
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor18
Lifestage complexity
(Millions of Europeans 1995 2000 CAGR 95-00 2005 CAGR 00-05
living as)
Singles 70.4 75.6 1.4% 81.0 1.4%Couples Without Kids 77.5 80.6 0.8% 82.0 0.3%Nuclear Families 154.1 143.9 -1.4% 132.7 -1.6%Single Parent 27.4 28.4 0.7% 29.4 0.7%Empty Nesters 54.5 58.9 1.6% 63.7 1.6%
Overall 383.9 387.4 0.2% 388.8 0.1%
Demographic complexity is creating more fragmented family structures across Europe
© Datamonitor19
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor20
Income complexity
High income groups spending on ‘anti-luxury’
• Downshifting and simplifying
• Getting a bargain
• Spending on needs and not wants
© Datamonitor21
Income complexity
Lower income groups spending on luxury on a budget
• Budget Living
• Sacrificial consumption
© Datamonitor22
Income complexity
• Capitalizing on the increased desire for professionalism
– Max Factor – ‘The makeup of makeup artists’
– Orbit Professional chewing gum
– Pravek’s Herbal Slimming Tea developed by Ayurvedic doctors
• Aspirational products for mid-income consumers
– Wolfgang Puck Soups
– Frozen Dessert soufflés from the Bistro Garden restaurant
© Datamonitor23
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor24
Convenience: values and attitudes
Fitting in many competing demands on time
83%
60%
40%35%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Family Work Friends Leisure Religion
Percentage of global respondents that
consider the following to very important in
their life
Source: World Values Survey
© Datamonitor25
Convenience: behaviors
Multitasking
One-stop shopping
Consuming on-the-go
Top-up shopping
Eating light
Grazing
Last-minute planning
Outsourcing
Seeking quick fixes
Pit-stopping
Creating a home from home
Compact living
© Datamonitor26
-7.3
5.4
-3.2
10.6
-1.7
5.5
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Breakfast Morningsnacking
Lunch Afternoonsnacking
Dinner Eveningsnacking
Change in eating occasions per head per year 2002-2007
Fragmenting eating occasions across Europe
Convenience: behaviors
© Datamonitor27
Convenience: best practice
• Easy-to-use– Sotoco’s Spoonty is a ‘tea spoon’ to replace the tea bag
– Itoham Foods ready meal comes in a disposable metal pan that acts as the heating pan and the bowl
• Space efficient– Coca Cola’s Fridge Pack Vendor
– Kirin ‘Tarunama’ Ichiban Shibori
• On-the-go innovation– Self-heating Hotcan ready meals
– Aldo's Pizza Bar – pizza to heat in a cup
– Campbell’s Soup At Hand – portable soup
– H2O No Gas water in a slim hip flask with belt clip
© Datamonitor28
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor29
Health: values and attitudes
Greater value is being placed on healthiness and wellbeing
• Health awareness and concern is growing
• Ageing populations mean greater health concerns
© Datamonitor30
Health: behaviors
• Exercising
• Adopting regimes
• Dieting
• Seeking nutrition
• Information seeking
• Self-medicating
• De-stressing
• Acting holistically
• Seeking total solutions
© Datamonitor31
Health: behaviors
Occasional usersLoyal users
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2002 2007
42.6 78.0
166.7
226.3
CAGR
7.8%
Natural and organic food and drink consumers in Europe (m)
Seeking nutrition
© Datamonitor32
Health: best practice
• Functional drinks and cosmeceuticals:
– Pokka Amino Lemon drink helps the over 50s retain a youthful appearance
– Orchard Maid and Addera Probiotic Drink with a ‘probiotic straw’
– Kanebo Collagen Suplipet drink with collagen
– Inneov fermete skin firming tablets
– SP Marine Super P anti-hypertension drink
– Yakult’s Lemorea anti-hypertension drink
– Benecol cholesterol lowering dairy drink
© Datamonitor33
Health: best practice
• Better for you food for kids:
– Congelados Patitas – drumstick shaped breaded vegetables
– McCain Smiles pre-cooked in a polyunsaturated oil and are cholesterol free
• Natural health innovation
– Frito-Lay ‘Natural’ snacks
– Asahi’s Aqua Blue made with deep sea water
• Total health solutions
– Wisdom’s YerbaMate Royale natural tea for losing weight, boosting energy and alertness
– Campbell's Ignite Frozen Entree – no artificial flavors; 16 essential nutrients; 2 servings of veg; high in protein
© Datamonitor35
Health: crossover trends
Health on-the-go
• Putting healthy products into on-the-go formats
– Norwegian Jake's BackPack Lunch in a canister
– Deli Dashers Salad Bowl
– Friesland Breaker yogurt in a resealable pouch
– Jt Aka Oolong RTD tea enriched with vitamins in a resealable bottle can
© Datamonitor36
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor37
Sensory: behaviors
• Seeking experiences
• Going to extremes
• Seeking sensations
• Exploring new cultures
• Seeking professionalism
• Trading up
• Experimenting
• Seeking authenticity
• Not compromizing
© Datamonitor38
Sensory: best practice
• New taste sensations
– Authentic: Steaz Green Tea Soda ‘micro-brewed’
– Authentic: Farm Route Food Pot Pie from named farms
– Novel: Strathmore Still Spring Water in chocolate flavor
– Ethnic: Lurpak with Mediterranean herbs
• Flavor cues in packaging
– Pom Wonderful juice in pomegranate shaped bottle
© Datamonitor39
Sensory: best practice
• Extreme and intense
– Percol Rocket Fuel tea with an ‘explosive caffeine kick’
– Sprite on Fire with an ‘unique burning ginger sensation’
– Magma Cinnamon Schnapps Liqueur with a ‘hot peppery taste’
– Virgin Sours ‘sour soda’
– Herman Goelitz’s Harry Potter ‘yuck flavor sweets’
© Datamonitor40
Sensory: best practice
• Interactive sensations
– KP Skips with ‘fizz sensation’ that turns tongue yellow
– Nestle’s Jambos – lick jam to reveal picture
– Sakito Juice Drink ‘Thumb it, punch it, drink it’
• Experiential products
– L’Occitane ‘holiday scents’ perfume
– Crest Whitening Expressions
© Datamonitor41
Rule #4
Fads – when underpinned by a mega-trend – are a good way
to maintain interest
© Datamonitor42
Sensory: crossover trends
Sensory + Convenience = Fast casual dining
• Fresher, better than quick service restaurants…
• …but quicker, less formal service than full service
• Driving growth in the foodservice industry
Sensory + Health = Mediterranean diet
• Has been promoted as a healthier alternative to traditional diets since the 1960s
• Considered to be tasty as well as healthy, driving it to a value of €117bn in Europe
© Datamonitor43
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor44
Individualism: behaviors
• Getting rich quick
• Being exclusive
• Living alone
• Being individual
• Multi-lifestyling
• Having it your way
© Datamonitor45
Individualism: best practice
• Customization innovation
– Jones Soda – create your own labels
– Coca-Cola’s Style-a-Coke shrink wrap system
– Lavazza pod tea bags
– FreshDirect offers a customized online shopping experience
© Datamonitor46
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor47
Homing: values and attitudes
The value placed on home and family
• Increasing importance of the home
• In the western world there is a growing desire for family life…
• …although family values have remained strong in Asia and Latin America
• Links between home, family and tradition
© Datamonitor48
Homing: behaviors
• Cocooning
• Pampering
• Everyday treating
• Bringing third places home
© Datamonitor49
Homing: best practice
• Products that offer ‘at-home third place’ experiences
– Kraft Parmesan ‘restaurant-style’ shaker
– Pizza Express restaurant pizzas in supermarkets
– Nichirei Beef Stew based on recipes from Tokyo’s famous Nihonbashi Taimeiken restaurant
– Heineken Beer Tender
© Datamonitor50
Homing: best practice
• Indulgent products for everyday treating
– Coca-Cola’s Barq’s Floats is a ‘treat’ not a thirst quencher
– Pepsi Vanilla – nostalgic sweet indulgence
– Cadbury’s Almond Biscotti dream with premium ingredients
• Innovation in safety
– Cloud Juice – water bottled from ‘pure rain’
– Black Forest Pearl Mineralwasser – mild, low sodium bottled water “ideal for babies and older people”
© Datamonitor51
Homing: trend clash
The debits and credits consumer
• Behavior characterized by moving between periods of unhealthy behavior (debits) to healthy behavior (credits)
• Represents a clash between health and indulgence
© Datamonitor53
The 10 mega-trends
• Age complexity
• Gender complexity
• Lifestage complexity
• Income complexity
• Convenience
• Health
• Sensory
• Individualism
• Homing
• Connectivity
© Datamonitor54
Connectivity: values and attitudes
Beyond family and friends…
• Communities– Community feeling
• Nations– Ethnocentrism
• The world– Environmental concerns
© Datamonitor55
Connectivity: behaviors
• Being connected
• Replacing family with friends
• Being cool
• Word-of-mouth
© Datamonitor56
Connectivity: best practice
• Shareable product innovation
– Masterfoods Celebrations
– Doritos ‘Friendchips’
– Eat Smart Vegetable Party Tray
• Products that facilitate connections
– Britvic J2O – ‘fit in with alcohol drinkers’
– Molson Twin Label beer – socializing aid on label
– P&G Pringles with Trivia Pursuit printed on crisps
• Cool packaging
– Asymmetric bottle that ‘evokes the fluidity of water’
– Shasta Shotrz in funky ‘shorts’ design and size
© Datamonitor57
Connectivity: crossover trends
Connectivity + Homing = Entertaining at home
• Entertaining at home occasions in Europe and the US will grow at 1% p.a.• Related spending will grow at 3-5% p.a.
• Product innovations– Fosters CoolKeg targets the barbecue occasion
– Stella Artois Dining Pack
– Spa Reine Rolling bottled water
© Datamonitor58
Conclusions
Use the rules
1. Track long-term mega-trends
2. Spot early opportunities amongst counter-trends
3. Find crossovers that combine two or more trends
4. Use fads when they allow you to reinterpret mega-trends
5. Look for unmet needs where consumer behavior is contradictory