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© OECD/IEA 2012
Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
Ms. Maria van der HoevenExecutive DirectorInternational Energy AgencyLuxembourg, 28 September 2012
Key messages
1. Sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there
2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment
3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies
4. It even makes financial sense to do it!5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
Energy demand and emissions have doubled in the past 40 years
From 6000 Mtoe to 12 000 Mtoe Rapid demand growth outside OECD
Source: IEA statistics
CO2 emissions from 14Gt to 30Gt Since 2005, non-OECD countries
emit more than OECD
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas
Significant action is required to get back on track
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
© OECD/IEA 2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Shar
e of
ene
rgy
RD&
D in
tota
l R&
D
USD
bill
ion
Energy RD&D Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
0
1
2
3
4
Braz
il
Chin
a
Indi
a
Mex
ico
Russ
ia
Sout
h A
fric
a
USD
bill
ion
2008 non-IEA country spending
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
All flexibility sources will be needed
Dispatchablepower plants
Energy storage facilities
Interconnection with adjacent
markets
Biomass-firedpower plant
Pumped hydro facility
Scandinavian interconnections
Demand side Response
(via smart grid)
Industrial
residential
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
TWh
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
53%
27%
2%
1%
7%
28%
22%
23%
10%
9%
13%
7%
10%
4%
21%
28%
4%13% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
Gen
erati
on s
hare
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Solar
Hydro
Fossil w/o CCS
Fossil w CCS
2009 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
4DS
OECD Non-OECD
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
2DS
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
2DS4DS
Natural gas as a transitional fuel
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
50
100
150
200FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050
Glo
bal P
asse
nger
LD
V s
ales
(m
illio
n)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
- 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
10%
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Additionalinvestment
Tota
l sav
ings
USD trillion
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional investment
Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
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