010715 Price Outlook GoodIrwin

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Outlook for Corn and Soybean Prices

Following the USDAs Estimates of

June 1 Stocks and Planted Acreage

Scott Irwin and Darrel [email protected] / d

-

[email protected]

Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

University of Illinois


2/24

Presentation Materials

Visi t the Downloads page at www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/ PDF of slides available now

Video available later this week

Questions?Please submit questions during the presentation
http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinarshttp://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars


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Outline of Presentation

Review Grain Stocks Estimates

Draw Implications for

2014-15 Balance Sheet Projections

Review Acreage Estimates Draw Implications for

2015-16 Balance Sheet Projections


4/24


5/24

4,362

3,533

4,0284,261 4,310

3,670

3,148

2,766

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,5004,000

4,500

5,000

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013-

mil.

bu.

Figure 1. June 1 Corn Stocks Exp

* Source: Reuters


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1

67103

76

-303

346

-33

-92

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013-

mil.

bu.

Figure 2. June 1 Corn Stocks Minus Average Trade Gu


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1,293

1,127

1,069947

1,273

713

861921

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1

mil.

bu.

Figure 3. Third Quarter Feed and Residual Use of


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973

760668 684

495452

330247

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

mil.

bu.

Figure 4. Fourth Quarter Feed and Residual Use of C


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Figure 5. 2014-15 Corn Balance USDAJune 10, 2015

Goo

July

Supp

ly

Planted Acreage (million acres) 90.6

Harvested Acreage (million acres) 83.1

Yield (Bushels / Acre) 171.0 1

Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 1,232 1

Total Production (million bushels) 14,216 14

Imports (million bushels) 25

Total Supply (million bushels) 15,472 15

Consumption

Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,250 5

Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,522 6Ethanol (million bushels) 5,175 5

Exports (million bushels) 1,825 1

Total Consumption (million bushels) 13,597 13

Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,876 1

Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 13.8% 13

Average Price ($/bu.) $3.65 $


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50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

000ac.

Figure 6. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Co

planted harvested

Ex

*Source: Reuters


11/24

-1,056

-690 -633

-255-28

-407

47

-463

-39

187

-1,039

639

-1,345

-653

320

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

000acres

Figure 7 . Planted Acres of Corn Minus June Inten


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6,5856,899

7,576

6,899 7,111 6,934

9,564

7,6597,298

6,662

7,689

7,0077,412

6,892 6,746

8,057

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

000acres

Figure 8. Planted Minus Harvested Acreage of C


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y = 1.8178x + 60.394

R = 0.8929

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

bu.

perac.

Figure 9. U.S. Average Corn Yield


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Figure 10. 2015-16 Corn Balance USDAJune 10, 2015

Good

July 1

Sup

ply

Planted Acreage (million acres) 89.2 8

Harvested Acreage (million acres) 81.7 8

Yield (Bushels / Acre) 166.8 16

Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 1,876 1,8Total Production (million bushels) 13,630 13,3

Imports (million bushels) 25

Total Supply (million bushels) 15,531 15,2

Consumption

Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,300 5,3

Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,560 6,5

Ethanol (million bushels) 5,200 5,2

Exports (million bushels) 1,900 1,9

Total Consumption (million bushels) 13,760 13,8

Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,771 1,4

Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 12.9% 10

Average Price ($/bu.) $3.60 $4


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16/24

991

1,092

676

596 571619

668

435

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013-

mil.

bu.

Figure 11. June 1 Soybean Stocks


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-22

15

711

-21

2227

-6

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013-

mil.

bu.

Figure 12. June 1 Soybean Stocks Minus Average Trade


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Figure 13. 2014-15 Soybean Balance USDA- 6/10 Good

Supply

Planted Acreage (mil.) 83.7

Harvested Acreage (mil.) 83.1

Yield (bu./ac.) 47.8

Production (mil. bu.) 3,969

Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 92

Imports (mil. bu.) 30

Total Supply(mil. bu.) 4,091

Consump

tion Crush (mil. bu.) 1,815

Export (mil. bu.) 1,810Seed and residual (mil. bu.) 136

Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,761

Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 330

Stocks-to-use 8.8%

Average farm price ($/bu.) $10.05


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50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

000acres

Figure 14. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Soyb

planted harvested


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300

-845-695

-475

-235

-1,341

970

-249

399

-1,071

592 660

1,185

-32

-1,464

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

000acres

Figure 15. Planted Acres of Soybeans Minus June Inten


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846 895

1,584

1,284

1,858

1,100

1,466

964

1,250

781

920

595

1,037 1,079

794

1,270

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

000acres

Figure 16. Planted Minus Harvested Acreage of Soybe


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y = 0.4039x + 21.789

R = 0.8899

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

bu.

perac.

Figure 17. U.S. Average Soybean Yield


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Figure 18. 2015-16 Soybean Balance USDA- 6/10 Good/Irw

Supp

ly

Planted Acreage (mil.) 84.6

Harvested Acreage (mil.) 83.7

Yield (bu./ac.) 46.0

Production (mil. bu.) 3,850 3

Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 330

Imports (mil. bu.) 30

Total Supply(mil. bu.) 4,210 4

Consumption Crush (mil. bu.) 1,830 1

Export (mil. bu.) 1,775 1Seed and residual (mil. bu.) 130

Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,735 3

Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 475

Stocks-to-use 12.7% 8

Average farm price ($/bu.) $9.00 $1


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Questions?

Please continue to submit questions

during this part of the webinar

Visit the Downloads page at

www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars

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