06 August 2020 - images.cbre.com.kh · CBRE CAMBODIA 14 HOW LONG IS TOURISM’S HOLIDAY? THE IMPACT...

0 6 A u g u s t 2 0 2 0

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Cambodia’s Infrastructure Updates

Travelling Trends Prior to Covid-19

Impacts of Covid-19 on Tourism &

Hospitality

Discussion – Q&A

3

N E W P H N O M P E N H

I N T E R N AT I O N A L

A I R P O R T

30%C O M P L E T E D

( A P R I L )

3

4

37%C O M P L E T E D

( M A Y )

R I N G

R O A D 3

5

S I H A N O U K V I L L E

E X P R E S S W AY

20.65%C O M P L E T E D ( M A Y )

6

C H A O M C H A O

J U N C T I O N

40%C O M P L E T E D ( J U N E )

Photo: Ministry of InformationPhoto: Ministry of Information

1. UNDER PASS - IFL

2. UNDER PASS – DEER PARK

12

3

4NEW URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE

DEVELOPMENT

3. NEW BRIDGE

4. NEW ROADS TO NEW STADIUM

The underpass links Street 271 to Institute of Foreign

Languages (IFL), allows easier access to the school

and reducing traffic congestion on street 271 and

Russian Boulevard.

The underpass links Street 169 to Boeung Kak Street,

allows easier access between the two roads and ease

traffic on Russian Boulevard.

The new bridge connecting to Chroy Changvar

Peninsula has been planned and will replace the

existing steel bridge.

Two new roads have been announced – both will span

from existing OCIC road to the new Stadium where

2023 SEA Games takes place.

Note: These new infrastructure developments have been announced and are currently in the planning stage.

No further information has been made publicly available yet.

8CBRE CAMBODIA HOW LONG IS TOURISM’S HOLIDAY?

OVERALL TRAVEL IN APAC HAD BEEN GROWING WELL

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2016 2017 2018 2019

Y-o

-Y G

row

th in

To

uri

st

Arr

ivals

(%

)

CHANGES IN ARRIVALS BY REGION

World Europe APAC Americas Africa Middle East

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)


OCCUPANCY IN CAMBODIA HAS BEEN IN L INE WITH APAC GENERALLY

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

HOTEL OCCUPANCY

Bangkok Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City Asia Pacific Bali Cambodia


CAMBODIA HAS BEEN ONE OF THE STRONGER GROWTH MARKETS

Source: Respective Tourism Authorities

1111

COUNTRY LOCKDOWN

INBOUND

TRAVEL

RESTRICTIONS

OUTBOUND

TRAVEL

RESTRICTIONS

CASES DEATHS

Cambodia None Minor Restrictions Discouraged 243 0

Indonesia Partial Not permitted Flight restrictions 113,134 5,302

Laos Partial Not permitted Discouraged 20 0

Malaysia Partial Malaysian Citizens

Only

Not permitted 8,999 121

Myanmar Partial Not permitted Flight restrictions 353 6

Philippines Partial Filipino Citizens

Only

Not permitted 106,330 2,104

Singapore Partial Visa restrictions Discouraged 53,051 27

Thailand Partial Partial Restrictions Flight restrictions 3,320 58

Vietnam None Vietnamese

Citizens Only

Not permitted 621 6

Source: Kayak, ASEAN Briefing, Wikipedia


T IMEL INE OF RESTR ICT IONS IN CAMBODIA

1st

Covid-19

Case in

Cambodia

Drop in tourist

arrivals followed

Jan

27th

Mar

18th

Unnecessary

businesses

ordered to close

temporarily

(cinemas, pubs,

restaurants,

KTVs…)

Mar

28th

Cross-border

Travel Restrictions

on 6 Countries

Began

E-Visa and visa-

on-arrival

suspended

Apr

9th

Cross-province

Travel Ban

Imposed

Travel from the

Capital to

provinces not

allowed

Apr

16th

Cross-province

Travel Ban Lifted

Travel from the

Capital to

provinces eased

May

20th

Cross-border Travel

Restrictions on 6

Countries Lifted

Entry requirements

(strict healthcare

measures) still

apply

Jun

16th

Deposit of

$3,000 Required

Foreign Travellers

entering

Cambodia

required to pay

Covid-19 deposit

Aug

3rd

Deposit

Reduced

to $2,000

Aug

5th

202 out of

243 Cases

Cured

Aug

1st

Flights from

Malaysia

and

Indonesia

Banned


IMPACTS OF COVID -19 ON OCCUPANCY


THE IMPACT OF COVID -19 ON HOSP ITAL I TY BUS INESSES

18 CLOSED

PERMANENTLY

172 HALTED

TEMPORARILY

40 OPERATING

HOTELS IN SIEM REAP | Q2 2020

The closures and halted operations accounted for 83%

of Siem Reap hotel supply.

Source: Ministry of Tourism of Cambodia, KhmerTimes

15

CAMBODIA

DASHBOARD

ONLY 4,185

TOURISTS IN APRIL

Photo: CBRE CambodiaPhoto: Arlene and Robin Karpan


GLOBALLY COVID -19 I S A MAJOR CHALLENGE


OUTS IDE OF SE AS IA COVID-19 I S GROWING


COVID-19 I S LOCALLY UNDER CONTROL


CAMBODIA HAS A GOOD RECORD


INTERNAT IONAL VS DOMEST IC TOUR ISTS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Phnom

Penh

Sie

m R

eap

Sih

anoukville

Kam

pot

Kep

Koh K

ong

Mondulk

iri

Thousands

International Domestic

Number of Tourists Visiting Key Locations in June 2020 International Tourists | Q2 2019 VS Q2 2020

Source: Ministry of Tourism of Cambodia

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

April May June

Thousands

2019 2020

*Data as of 3rd Week of June 2020.

*


AIR TRAFF IC & PASSENGER YET TO RECOVER

May 2019

May 2020

PASSENGERS ACROSS THREE AIRPORTS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

June-0

4

June-1

1

June-1

8

June-2

5

July

-0

2

Num

ber

of Flights

Scheduled flights Tracked flights

AVERAGE TRACKED FLIGHTS IN JUNE

PP Airport

SR Airport

SHV Airport

37/week

0.75/week

5.5/week

900,067 passengers

18,135 passengers

FLIGHT NUMBERS | JUNE 04 – JULY 02

Source: FlightRadar24

Source: FlightRadar24

Source: KhmerTimes, Cambodia Airports


MORE MARKETS GRADUALLY OPENING UP, BUT SOME MARKETS ARE GOING BACK INTO LOCKDOWN

Source: CBRE Research

SEMI-EASING LOCKDOWN GRADUAL OPENING RECOVERYLOCKDOWN

Victoria (Australia) UK

EuropeRussiaIndia

Hong Kong SAR

Australia (except

Victoria)

Singapore

Philippines

BrazilUSA

Mainland China MalaysiaVietnam

NO LOCKDOWN• Cambodia• Korea• Taiwan• New Zealand• Thailand


MOST APAC MARKETS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO RECESS ION

1.6%

-0.7%

-2.3%

-5.5% -5.8%-6.2% -6.5%

-8.0%

-1.4%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Mainland China Korea India Singapore Hong Kong SAR Japan Australia New Zealand Asia Pacific

Y-o

-Y C

ha

ng

e

Pre COVID-19 (As of 8 Jan) Outbreak in China (As of 14 Feb) Global Pandemic (As of 24 Mar) Latest (As of 26 May)

GDP Forecasts 2020



APR I L /MAY TOURIST ARR IVALS NON -EX ISTENT

-66%

-87%

-98% -98% -98% -98% -99% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100%

India* Indonesia Shanghai,

Mainland

China

Beijing,

Mainland

China

Korea Vietnam New

Zealand

Macao

SAR

Australia Taiwan Hong

Kong SAR

Japan Singapore Thailand

Latest Y-o-Y change in International Tourist Arrivals (March / April / May 2020)



AN 80% DROP IN FL IGHTS I S NOW 60%

Note: Shanghai: non-Mainland resident visitors (including Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR and Taiwan)Beijing: non-Mainland resident visitors in groups (including Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR and Taiwan)India is as of no. of tourist arrivals in Mar 2020 while Japan, Vietnam and Macau SAR are as of no. of tourist arrivals in May 2020Other markets as of April 2020. SECONDARY SOURCE: TOURISM ECONOMICS AND IATA 2020.


DOMEST IC TRAVEL HAS RECOVERED MORE QUICKLY THAN DOMEST IC

SECONDARY SOURCE: TOURISM ECONOMICS AND IATA 2020.


THE IMPACT OF COVID -19 ON REVENUE PER ROOM





SUPPLY BY CLASS AND SCALE

SUPPLY BY CLASS

31

Economy Class

Midscale Class

Upper Midscale Class

Upscale Class

Upper Upscale Class

Luxury Class

Economy Chains

Independents

Luxury Chains

Midscale Chains

Upper Midscale Chains

Upper Upscale Chains

Upscale Chains

SUPPLY BY SCALE

Source: STR


SUPPLY AND P IPEL INE BY LOCAT ION

SUPPLY BY LOCATION

32

Phnom Penh Siem Reap Sihanoukville Others Phnom Penh Siem Reap Sihanoukville Others

CAMBODIA PIPELINE

Source: STR


P IPEL INE COMPAR ISON BY CLASS WITH V IETNAM

Economy Class

Midscale Class


Upscale Class

Upper Upscale Class

Luxury Class

(blank)

Economy Class

Midscale Class


Upscale Class

Upper Upscale Class

Luxury Class

VI E T N A M P I P E L I N E C A M B O D I A P I P E L I N E

Source: STR


P IPEL INE STATUS COMPAR ISON WITH V IETNAM

Deferred

Final Planning

In Construction

Planning

2%

50%

36%

12%

Deferred

Final Planning

In Construction

Planning


Source: STR


P IPEL INE COMPAR ISON BY LOCAT ION WITH V IETNAM

Nha Trang Cam Ranh Vung Tau Danang Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City Others Phnom Penh Siem Reap Sihanoukville Others


Source: STR


CHANGES IN SUPPLY

Cambodia pipeline

Additional

11% hotels

49% rooms

Vietnam pipeline

Additional

21% hotels

61% rooms

Source: STR

`


SOME LARGE HOTELS ARE BE ING ADDED

Cambodia

Existing hotels

99 rooms

Proposed hotels

433 rooms

Vietnam

Existing hotels

124 rooms

Proposed hotels

340 rooms

Source: STR


THE SUPPLY MAY BE MUCH SMALLER THAN V IETNAM’S BUT I S RELAT IVELY

STRONG

Cambodia

One room per 705

Cambodians

Vietnam

One room per 866

Vietnamese

Source: STR


THE KEY UNCERTA INT IES

TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS

HOW LONG?

WHAT OF FURTHER WAVES?

TRAVEL BUBBLES

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK

GLOBALLY AND DOMESTICALLY

CONSUMER AND TRAVELLER CONFIDENCE

TRAVEL AND HOTEL CONDITIONS


DOMEST IC DEMAND SHOULD RECOVER AHEAD OF INTERNAT IONAL


RECOVERY LOOKS GOOD FOR APAC


SOME OF THE CHALLENGES – AND OPPORTUNIT IES

TIMING HOW LONG WILL THIS LAST?

CASHFLOW IS THERE ANY?

PERSONNEL HOW TO KEEP, RETRAIN, UPGRADE?

DEBT WHAT WILL THE LENDERS DO?

REOPENING WHEN AND HOW TO

REFURBISHMENT WHEN AND HOW TO

MARKETING WHAT BUSINESS TO ACCEPT, BRANDING

PRICING WHAT SHOULD BE THE ROOM RATE

SELL OR BUY WHAT IS HAPPENING TO VALUES

HOSPITALITY IS BADLY IMPACTED BUT SE ASIA LOOKS WELL POSITIONED TO RECOVER

43

Q&A

THANK YOU!

© 2020 Advantage Property Services Co., Ltd, trading as CBRE Cambodia, part of the CBRE affiliate network. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, includingprojections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independentlyassessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offerto sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior expresswritten permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

Kinkesa Kim

Senior Manager

E: [email protected]

M: +855 95 777 582

Sonic Sovuth

Senior Analyst


M: +855 777 982

Robert McIntosh

Executive Director


For more info, please contact:

CBRE Cambodia | +855 23 964 099 | [email protected] | www.cbre.com.kh

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06 August 2020 - images.cbre.com.kh · CBRE CAMBODIA 14 HOW LONG IS TOURISM’S HOLIDAY? THE IMPACT...

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