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1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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Page 1: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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Page 2: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים

25.12.07

OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN

Page 3: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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CITI USDA99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 07/08

-SOYBEANS- U.S. 72,224 75,055 78,672 75,010 66,780 85,010 83,363 86,770 70,180 70,610 BRAZIL 34,200 39,300 43,500 52,000 51,000 53,000 57,000 59,000 61,040 62,000 CHINA 14,290 15,400 15,410 16,510 15,390 17,400 16,350 16,200 13,800 14,300 ARGENTINA 21,200 27,800 30,000 35,500 33,000 39,000 40,500 47,200 47,040 47,000 CANADA 2,776 2,703 1,635 2,336 2,260 3,040 3,160 3,460 2,696 2,700 PARAGUAY 2,911 3,502 3,547 4,500 3,910 4,050 3,640 6,200 6,500 6,500 EU 1,406 1,258 1,375 993 825 1,086 1,174 1,241 820 839 INDIA 5,200 5,250 5,400 4,000 6,800 5,850 7,000 7,690 9,000 9,200 OTHER 6,202 5,503 5,292 5,940 6,566 7,253 8,251 8,012 7,843 8,443 SUBTOTAL 160,409 175,771 184,831 196,789 186,531 215,689 220,438 235,773 218,919 221,592

-COTTONSEED- CHINA 6,900 7,960 9,560 8,850 8,870 12,150 11,755 13,910 14,000 13,910 FSU 2,990 2,700 3,060 2,900 2,835 3,374 3,603 3,480 3,480 3,475 U.S. 5,760 5,840 6,760 5,610 6,046 7,437 7,414 6,666 5,970 5,970 INDIA 5,170 4,900 5,100 4,400 5,944 8,067 8,088 9,128 10,100 10,190 PAKISTAN 3,820 3,570 3,610 3,400 3,416 4,850 4,426 4,318 4,000 3,810 BRAZIL 1,110 1,520 1,230 1,450 2,240 2,197 1,750 2,606 2,550 2,606 OTHER 7,170 7,019 7,096 6,136 6,415 7,674 7,106 5,908 5,268 5,268 SUBTOTAL 32,920 33,509 36,416 32,746 35,766 45,749 44,142 46,016 45,368 45,229

-RAPESEED- CHINA 10,130 11,380 11,330 10,550 11,420 13,182 13,050 12,700 10,500 11,600 EU 14,361 11,364 11,585 11,752 11,185 15,432 15,523 15,962 18,000 18,179 CANADA 8,800 7,210 5,020 4,180 6,771 7,728 9,660 9,000 8,751 8,750 INDIA 5,110 3,730 4,500 4,050 6,800 6,500 7,000 5,800 5,400 5,400 US 620 910 910 700 686 613 718 633 682 682 AUSTRALIA 2,460 1,910 1,800 870 1,703 1,542 1,436 500 1,050 900 FSU 365 378 385 247 305 572 742 1,309 2,120 1,967 OTHER 648 465 493 573 558 589 603 817 829 829 SUBTOTAL 42,494 37,347 36,023 32,922 39,428 46,158 48,732 46,721 47,332 48,307

WORLD OILSEED PRODUCTION (thousand tonnes)

Page 4: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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CITI USDA99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 07/08

-SUNSEED- FSU 7,260 7,750 5,325 7,542 9,794 8,475 11,745 12,695 10,200 10,190 EU 6,066 5,117 4,972 5,183 6,155 6,463 5,958 6,483 4,500 4,532 ARGENTINA 6,000 3,050 3,844 3,700 3,240 3,600 3,800 3,500 4,550 4,600 O. EUR 359 280 329 352 476 507 500 470 410 410 CHINA 1,800 1,950 1,478 1,946 1,743 1,552 1,927 1,900 1,780 1,800 U.S. 1,970 1,610 1,551 1,112 1,209 930 1,823 972 1,312 1,312 INDIA 1,300 1,250 1,450 1,625 1,700 1,224 1,550 1,280 1,420 1,650 OTHER 2,423 2,071 2,464 2,527 2,574 2,651 2,691 2,845 2,954 2,954 SUBTOTAL 27,178 23,078 21,413 23,987 26,891 25,402 29,994 30,145 27,126 27,448

-PEANUTS- CHINA 12,640 14,440 14,415 14,818 13,420 14,340 14,340 14,610 14,000 14,000 INDIA 5,500 5,700 7,600 5,400 7,700 7,000 6,300 5,385 6,000 6,000 U.S. 1,740 1,480 1,940 1,506 1,880 1,945 2,209 1,571 1,572 1,572 OTHER 9,090 9,560 9,862 9,144 9,791 10,273 10,186 10,790 10,815 10,815 SUBTOTAL 28,970 31,180 33,817 30,868 32,791 33,558 33,035 32,356 32,387 32,387

TOTAL 291,971 300,885 312,500 317,312 321,407 366,556 376,341 391,011 371,132 374,963 US 82,314 84,895 89,833 83,938 76,601 95,935 95,527 96,612 79,716 80,146 FOREIGN 209,657 215,990 222,667 233,374 244,806 270,621 280,814 294,399 291,416 294,817FOR-ARG,BRZ 147,147 144,320 144,093 140,724 155,326 172,824 177,764 182,093 176,236 178,611

(thousand tonnes)

Page 5: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

5

U.S. OILSEED PRODUCTION

52.4 54.159.6

50.9

68.4

59.264.8

73.2 74.6 72.2 75.178.7

75.066.8

85.0 83.4 86.8

70.2

80.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09

Pro

du

cti

on

(m

il t

on

ne

s)

-SOYBEANS- -COTTONSEED- -SUNSEED- -PEANUTS- -RAPESEED-

76.6

64.3

68.5

84.983.1

69.0

79.7

59.5

89.8

84.482.3

74.8

83.9

60.5

96.695.5

95.9

79.7

88.9

Soybean led recovery expected next year, but will remain well below levels of two years ago

Page 6: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

6

FOREIGN OILSEED PRODUCTION

66.9 69.2 65.2 67.285.8 85.5 87.4

100.7 106.2121.8 119.8

130.7 137.1148.4 148.5

24.0 26.1 29.7 27.9

28.8 27.8 27.1

27.729.7

27.1 29.7

38.336.7

36.7 40.0

26.730.8 34.5 31.6

33.4 35.942.3

36.435.1

32.2

45.548.0

46.1 48.2

20.021.4

24.0 22.3

21.6 24.225.2

21.519.9

22.925.7

24.528.2

29.0 26.2

22.3

24.725.6 26.9

25.928.0

27.329.7

31.9

29.430.9

31.630.8

30.6 30.9

38.7

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08

MIL

LIO

N T

ON

NE

S

SOYBEAN COTTONSEED RAPESEED SUNSEED PEANUT

222.7

195.5

175.9178.9172.2

201.4 209.2216.0

233.4

244.8

159.9

270.6

294.3

280.8

293.4

Page 7: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

7

WORLD OILSEED PRODUCTION

209217 219 220

252 248 250

277285

292301

313 317 321

367376

391

376

20

45

70

95

120

145

170

195

220

245

270

295

320

345

370

395

420P

rod

uc

tio

n (

mil

to

nn

es

)

20.0%

21.0%

22.0%

23.0%

24.0%

25.0%

26.0%

27.0%

28.0%

29.0%

30.0%

31.0%

32.0%

33.0%

34.0%

35.0%

36.0%

US

Pro

du

cti

on

(%

of

To

tal)

WORLD US Production as % of World

First decline since 95/96, decline is record large

Page 8: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

8

World Soybean Production, Thousand Tonnes

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

87/

88

88/

89

89/

90

90/

91

91/

92

92/

93

93/

94

94/

95

95/

96

96/

9797

/98

98/9

999

/00

00/0

101

/02

02/0

303

/04

04/0

505

/06

06/0

707

/08

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Change (right scale) World total (left scale)

Record yearly decline in world soybean production, assuming normal South American yields

Page 9: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

9

SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

32.5 31.3 34.239.3

43.552.0 51.0 53.0

57.0 59.0 61.0

19.5 20.021.2

27.8

40.5

47.247.0

3.0 3.0

3.5

4.53.9

4.0

6.5

1.2 1.1

1.9

1.4

2.4

2.8

35.530.0

33.0

39.0

6.0

3.5

2.9

4.1

2.4

2.7

1.4

2.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08

Pro

du

cti

on

(m

il t

on

ne

s)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Brazil Argentina Paraguay Other S.A. US

56.255.4

60.2

78.4

72.0

94.0

89.8

102.2

114.6

98.7

117.4

Relatively small increase in South America production is expected. Would not take much of a crop problem before production is lower than the previous year

Page 10: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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Eastern Pacific Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaliesas of late October, 2007

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0J

an

-80

Ja

n-8

1

Ja

n-8

2

Ja

n-8

3

Ja

n-8

4

Ja

n-8

5

Ja

n-8

6

Ja

n-8

7

Ja

n-8

8

Ja

n-8

9

Ja

n-9

0

Ja

n-9

1

Ja

n-9

2

Ja

n-9

3

Ja

n-9

4

Ja

n-9

5

Ja

n-9

6

Ja

n-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

El Niño

El NiñoEl Niño

El Niño

La Niña

La Niña

La Niña

El NiñoEl Niño

2007 La Niña

Page 11: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

11

What is La Niña?• La Niña is characterized by when the tropical seas of the

Pacific off the coast of Latin America cool down, while the waters turn warmer towards Australia, the Philippines and Indonesia.

• the presence of La Niña is often quoted by the National Hurricane Center to be a cause for increased Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, partly because of higher sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The hurricane season of 1995 is also likely to have been influenced by that year's La Niña conditions.

• La Niña can send weather systems into havoc over vast areas, delivering huge deluges of rain over the Far East and tropical Australia, while western parts of Latin America turn much drier than usual. This is the flip side of El Niño, although La Niña lasts for a shorter time, usually no more than a year.

Page 12: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN AREA, PRODUCTION, AND YIELD

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09

AR

EA

IN

MIL

LIO

N H

EC

TA

RE

S

P

RO

DU

CT

ION

IN

MIL

LIO

N T

ON

NE

S

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

TO

NN

ES

/HE

CT

AR

E

AREA PRODUCTION YIELD Linear (YIELD)

Caution, La Nina could reduce yields for Southern Brazil

Page 13: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09SOYBEANS

AREA MIL HA 13.60 13.93 16.35 18.45 21.52 22.80 22.23 20.70 21.80YLD MT/HA 2.55 2.83 2.66 2.82 2.37 2.32 2.56 2.81 2.80BEG. STOCKS 0.40 0.62 0.46 0.68 3.30 3.49 1.52 2.33 2.74PRODUCTION 34.70 39.50 43.50 52.00 51.00 53.00 57.00 59.00 61.04IMPORTS 0.80 0.86 1.05 1.12 0.37 0.35 0.04 0.04 0.08SUPPLY 35.90 40.98 45.01 53.80 54.66 56.84 58.56 61.37 63.86

CRUSH 21.58 22.77 25.84 27.80 28.91 29.73 28.75 31.25 31.70EXPORTS 11.78 15.52 16.07 19.99 19.26 22.80 24.77 24.48 26.35SFR 1.93 2.22 2.41 2.72 3.00 2.80 2.70 2.90 3.10TOTAL USE 35.29 40.52 44.33 50.50 51.17 55.33 56.22 58.63 61.15

END STOCKS 0.62 0.46 0.68 3.30 3.49 1.52 2.33 2.74 2.71

SOYMEAL

BEG. STOCKS 0.44 0.46 0.36 0.62 0.86 0.77 0.82 0.86 1.42PRODUCTION 16.83 17.72 20.10 21.68 22.55 23.10 22.08 24.06 24.73IMPORTS 0.12 0.23 0.37 0.29 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.07 0.11SUPPLY 17.39 18.41 20.82 22.59 23.59 24.06 23.10 25.00 26.26

DOMESTIC 7.06 6.92 7.42 8.19 8.26 9.02 9.96 10.92 11.30EXPORTS 9.87 11.13 12.78 13.54 14.56 14.23 12.28 12.65 13.65TOTAL USE 16.93 18.05 20.20 21.73 22.82 23.25 22.23 23.58 24.95

END STOCKS 0.46 0.36 0.62 0.86 0.77 0.82 0.86 1.42 1.31

SOYOIL

BEG. STOCKS 0.20 0.25 0.11 0.17 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.32PRODUCTION 2.24 2.34 2.58 2.76 2.99 3.12 2.78 3.20 3.26IMPORTS 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01SUPPLY 2.49 2.61 2.75 2.95 3.21 3.39 3.07 3.51 3.60

DOMESTIC 3.03 2.99 2.91 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.13 3.46 4.15EXPORTS 1.13 1.62 2.10 2.40 2.53 2.74 2.31 2.57 2.03TOTAL USE 4.16 4.61 5.01 5.37 5.51 5.74 5.45 6.03 6.18

END STOCKS 0.25 0.11 0.17 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.32 0.31

MEAL EQUIV 19.23 23.47 25.56 29.43 29.87 32.35 31.97 32.11 34.60OIL EQUIV 3.37 4.57 5.15 6.20 6.19 7.07 7.02 7.22 7.04

BRAZIL SOYBEAN COMPLEX SUPPLY/USAGE

FEB-JAN, MILLION TONNES

Page 14: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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ARGENTINA SOYBEAN AREA, PRODUCTION, AND YIELD

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09

AR

EA

IN

MIL

LIO

N H

EC

TA

RE

S

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N I

N M

ILL

ION

TO

NN

ES

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

TO

NN

ES/

HE

CT

AR

E

AREA PRODUCTION YIELD Linear (YIELD)

La Nina could increase risk for adverse weather and lower yield

Page 15: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09SOYBEANS

AREA MIL HA 8.58 10.40 11.40 12.60 14.00 14.40 15.20 16.00 16.80YLD MT/HA 2.47 2.67 2.63 2.82 2.36 2.71 2.66 2.95 2.80BEG. STOCKS 0.29 0.46 0.87 1.94 2.76 3.68 2.38 2.41 3.54PRODUCTION 21.20 27.80 30.00 35.50 33.00 39.00 40.50 47.20 47.04IMPORTS 0.44 0.55 0.47 0.53 0.71 0.68 1.01 2.28 2.35SUPPLY 21.93 28.81 31.34 37.97 36.47 43.35 43.89 51.89 52.93

CRUSH 16.35 19.26 22.01 24.78 24.67 29.21 32.65 35.01 38.75EXPORTS 4.10 7.48 6.18 8.92 6.57 10.12 7.13 11.59 9.40SFR 1.01 1.19 1.20 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.90TOTAL USE 21.46 27.94 29.39 35.21 32.79 40.97 41.48 48.35 50.05

END STOCKS 0.46 0.87 1.94 2.76 3.68 2.38 2.41 3.54 2.88

SOYMEAL

BEG. STOCKS 0.33 0.15 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.26PRODUCTION 12.94 15.29 17.47 19.60 19.40 23.05 25.71 27.39 30.32SUPPLY 13.27 15.44 17.74 19.86 19.78 23.53 26.04 27.78 30.58

DOMESTIC 0.19 0.23 0.22 0.36 0.28 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.45EXPORTS 12.93 14.94 17.26 19.12 19.01 22.73 25.22 27.13 29.85TOTAL USE 13.12 15.17 17.49 19.48 19.29 23.20 25.65 27.53 30.30

END STOCKS 0.15 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.26 0.28

SOYOIL

BEG. STOCKS 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.22 0.20 0.26 0.30PRODUCTION 2.99 3.58 4.04 4.64 4.65 5.48 6.16 6.74 7.31SUPPLY 3.07 3.68 4.16 4.85 4.82 5.70 6.36 6.99 7.61

DOMESTIC 0.12 0.09 0.18 0.34 0.21 0.38 0.32 0.36 0.80EXPORTS 2.85 3.47 3.78 4.34 4.39 5.12 5.78 6.34 6.52TOTAL USE 2.97 3.56 3.96 4.68 4.60 5.50 6.10 6.69 7.32

END STOCKS 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.22 0.20 0.26 0.30 0.29

MEAL EQUIV 16.19 20.89 22.18 26.22 24.23 30.77 30.89 36.35 37.32OIL EQUIV 3.61 4.86 4.92 5.99 5.60 6.99 7.10 8.48 8.26

ARGENTINE SOYBEAN COMPLEX SUPPLY/USAGE

MAR-FEB, MILILON TONNES

Page 16: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

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U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY/USAGE BALANCE(September-August)(million bushels)

USDA Citi CitiDec Est Proj

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 07/08 08/09

ACRES PLANTED 62495 64195 70005 72025 73730 74266 74075 73963 73404 75208 72142 75552 63669 63669 70000% HARVESTED 0.985 0.987 0.987 0.978 0.983 0.975 0.985 0.980 0.987 0.983 0.988 0.987 0.987 0.983 0.986ACRES HARVESTED 61544 63349 69110 70441 72446 72408 72975 72497 72476 73958 71251 74602 62818 62618 69020AVERAGE YIELD 35.3 37.6 38.9 38.9 36.6 38.1 39.6 38.0 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.7 41.3 41.2 43.0

CARRY-IN 335 183 132 200 348 290 248 208 178 112 256 449 573 573 161PRODUCTION 2174 2380 2689 2741 2654 2758 2891 2756 2454 3124 3063 3188 2594 2579 2968IMPORTS 5 10 5 5 3 3 2 5 6 6 4 9 6 8 8

TOTAL SUPPLY 2514 2573 2826 2946 3005 3051 3140 2969 2638 3242 3323 3647 3173 3160 3137

CRUSH 1363 1436 1597 1590 1577 1639 1700 1615 1530 1696 1739 1806 1830 1828 1835EXPORTS 855 882 900 851 990 1015 1071 1065 887 1103 940 1118 995 1000 960SEED 76 79 86 89 90 91 90 90 92 88 92 78 86 85 85FEED/RESIDUAL 31 44 43 68 58 58 73 22 17 99 103 71 77 85 90

TOTAL USAGE 2325 2441 2626 2598 2715 2803 2933 2791 2526 2986 2874 3073 2988 2999 2970

STOCKS 183 132 200 348 290 248 208 178 112 256 449 573 185 161 167STOCKS-TO-USE % 7.9 5.4 7.6 13.4 10.7 8.8 7.1 6.4 4.4 8.6 15.6 18.7 6.2 5.4 5.6

Page 17: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

17

US Soybean Ending Stocks, Million Bushels

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

6507

1/7

2

72/

73

73/

74

74/

75

75/

76

76/

77

77/

78

78/

79

79/

80

80/

81

81/

82

82/

83

83/

84

84/

85

85/

86

86/

87

87/

88

88/

89

89/

90

90/

91

91/

92

92/

93

93/

94

94/

95

95/

96

96/

97

97/

98

98/

99

99/

00

00/

01

01/

02

02/

03

03/

04

04/

05

05/

06

06/

07C

iti

07/

08C

iti

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Ending Stocks, Left Scale Stocks/Use, Right Scale

US stocks are declining to minimum levels. No signs of sufficient rationing yet. Supply tightness in the 08/09 season could become more severe if a large increase in area is not secured.

Page 18: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

18

NET POSITION FUTURES AND OPTIONS OF LARGE SPECULATORS IN SOYBEANS

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1800004/

18/1

995

8/29

/199

5

12/2

6/19

95

4/9/

1996

7/23

/199

6

11/5

/199

6

2/18

/199

7

6/3/

1997

9/16

/199

7

12/3

0/19

97

4/14

/199

8

7/28

/199

8

11/1

0/19

98

2/23

/199

9

6/8/

1999

9/21

/199

9

1/4/

2000

4/18

/200

0

8/1/

2000

11/1

4/20

00

2/27

/200

1

6/12

/200

1

9/25

/200

1

1/8/

2002

4/23

/200

2

8/6/

2002

11/1

9/20

02

3/4/

2003

6/17

/200

3

9/30

/200

3

1/13

/200

4

4/27

/200

4

8/10

/200

4

11/2

3/20

04

3/8/

2005

7/5/

2005

10/1

8/20

05

1/31

/200

6

5/16

/200

6

8/29

/200

6

12/1

2/20

06

3/27

/200

7

7/10

/200

7

10/2

3/20

07

Record net long: 156,188 on 12/11/2007

Record net short: 56,442 on 2/8/2005

Record spec net long position, as is the case with soybean meal. May not see a major washout, or liquidation for another year. Index funds and other investor funds keep entering the market in earnest

Page 19: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

19

TOTAL FUTURES AND OPTIONS OPEN INTEREST IN SOYBEANS

0250005000075000100000125000150000175000200000225000250000275000300000325000350000375000400000425000450000475000500000525000550000575000600000625000650000675000700000725000750000775000800000825000

4/1

8/1

99

5

8/2

9/1

99

5

12

/26

/19

95

4/9

/19

96

7/2

3/1

99

6

11

/5/1

99

6

2/1

8/1

99

7

6/3

/19

97

9/1

6/1

99

7

12

/30

/19

97

4/1

4/1

99

8

7/2

8/1

99

8

11

/10

/19

98

2/2

3/1

99

9

6/8

/19

99

9/2

1/1

99

9

1/4

/20

00

4/1

8/2

00

0

8/8

/20

00

11

/21

/20

00

3/6

/20

01

6/1

9/2

00

1

9/1

8/2

00

1

12

/28

/20

01

4/9

/20

02

7/2

3/2

00

2

11

/5/2

00

2

2/1

8/2

00

3

6/3

/20

03

9/1

6/2

00

3

12

/30

/20

03

4/1

2/2

00

4

7/2

7/2

00

4

11

/9/2

00

4

2/2

2/2

00

5

6/2

1/2

00

5

10

/4/2

00

5

1/1

7/2

00

6

5/2

/20

06

8/1

5/2

00

6

11

/28

/20

06

3/1

3/2

00

7

6/2

6/2

00

7

10

/9/2

00

7

Page 20: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

20

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

25

/11

/01

25

/01

/02

25

/03

/02

25

/05

/02

25

/07

/02

25

/09

/02

25

/11

/02

25

/01

/03

25

/03

/03

25

/05

/03

25

/07

/03

25

/09

/03

25

/11

/03

25

/01

/04

25

/03

/04

25

/05

/04

25

/07

/04

25

/09

/04

25

/11

/04

25

/01

/05

25

/03

/05

25

/05

/05

25

/07

/05

25

/09

/05

25

/11

/05

25

/01

/06

25

/03

/06

25

/05

/06

25

/07

/06

25

/09

/06

25

/11

/06

25

/01

/07

25

/03

/07

25

/05

/07

25

/07

/07

25

/09

/07

25

/11

/07

SB -Close (Last Trade)

Soybeans

Page 21: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

21

SOYBEAN YEARLY HIGH, LOW, AVERAGE PRICES FOR NEARBY SOYBEAN FUTURES

955

685

934 949

644

555

603

1060

906

661641 630

735 732

644

838

892

740

594572

528

594

649

1056

745

632

922

662

547519

607

504474 469

504

569544

518537 527

561527

623643

515

410437 422 418

519562

500537 539

1300

850

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

CE

NT

S/B

US

HE

L

HIGH LOW AVERAGE

Source: CQG & Citi

Page 22: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

22

Soybean Meal outlook

Page 23: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

23

WORLD SOYBEAN/SOYBEAN MEAL IMPORT/EXPORT MATRIX(October-September) (Thousand tonnes)

2005-06 2006-07

IMPORTERS BEANS MEAL SBME* BEANS MEAL SBME* BEANS MEAL SBME*

EU-27 13940 22822 33904 15300 22600 34764 15350 24200 36403OTHER EUR 540 561 990 500 600 998 450 600 958FSU 5 801 805 40 850 882 400 900 1218CANADA 300 1342 1581 250 1385 1584 250 1450 1649MEXICO 3600 1728 4590 4000 1900 5080 3800 1950 4971O.W.HEM 950 5099 5854 1100 5400 6275 1000 5500 6295CHINA 28317 836 23348 28723 32 22867 33000 800 27035TAIWAN 2400 92 2000 2500 200 2188 2300 100 1929JAPAN 3950 1601 4741 4100 1700 4960 3950 1725 4865SOUTH KOREA 1100 1773 2648 1300 1850 2884 1200 2000 2954THAILAND 1450 2042 3195 1600 2300 3572 1525 2350 3562MALAYSIA 380 779 1081 500 900 1298 500 950 1348INDONESIA 1200 2071 3025 1600 2300 3572 1525 2400 3612PHILIPPINES 100 1272 1352 150 1500 1619 100 1500 1580OTHER ASIA 200 2179 2338 300 2202 2441 250 2400 2599MIDDLE EAST 2800 2149 4375 3080 2700 5149 3200 2850 5394EGYPT 750 441 1037 1100 300 1175 1200 300 1254MOROCCO 400 77 395 500 140 538 500 150 548ALGERIA 0 631 631 0 660 660 0 700 700OTHER AFR 20 1327 1343 20 1500 1516 20 1550 1566OTHER 380 586 888 479 837 1218 235 1250 1437TOTAL 62782 50209 100120 67142 51856 105234 70755 55625 111875

EXPORTERSARGENTINA 7300 24509 30312 9510 25938 33499 11100 28400 37225BRAZIL 25911 12869 33468 23485 12712 31383 26475 13543 34591U.S. 26417 7301 28302 30347 8036 32162 27285 7922 29614INDIA 0 3680 3680 0 3470 3470 0 3810 3810PARAGUAY 2400 850 2758 3000 950 3335 5000 1100 5075BOLIVIA 92 1000 1073 100 750 830 120 850 945URAGUAY 662 0 526 700 0 557 775 0 616

----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- TOTAL 62782 50209 100120 67142 51856 105234 70755 55625 111875

2007-08

Page 24: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

24

SOYBEAN MEAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE(October-September)(thousand tons)

USDA Citi CitiDec Proj Proj.

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 07/08 08/09------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

BEGINNING STOCKS 223 212 210 218 330 293 383 240 220 211 172 314 351 351 389PRODUCTION 32526 34210 38177 37795 37593 39385 40292 38213 36324 40715 41244 43027 43484 43691 43627IMPORTS 74 102 57 99 48 51 143 166 270 147 141 156 165 152 100

----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----TOTAL SUPPLY 32823 34524 38444 38112 37972 39729 40818 38619 36815 41073 41557 43497 44000 44194 44116

DOM. DISAP. 26608 27322 28895 30663 30059 31643 33076 32386 32260 33559 33195 34360 35300 35071 35700EXPORTS MEAL 6003 6992 9331 7119 7620 7703 7508 6013 4344 7342 8048 8786 8400 8733 8041

----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----TOTAL USAGE 32611 34314 38226 37782 37679 39346 40584 38399 36604 40901 41243 43146 43700 43805 43741

ENDING STOCKS 212 210 218 330 293 383 240 220 211 172 314 351 300 389 375

STOCKS TO USE 17.48 12.16 16.27 28.54 23.88 19.86 15.98 14.48 9.76 19.20 33.42 40.67 12.04 12.62 14.55MEAL EQUIVALENTS

OCT-SEP CRUSH 1363 1445 1610 1599 1572 1641 1693 1620 1523 1708 1748 1812 1830 1821 1835 (milbu)

AVG. ANNUAL 47.74 47.35 47.42 47.26 47.83 48.00 47.60 47.17 47.70 47.67 47.19 47.50 47.52 48.00 47.55 SBM YIELD

Page 25: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

25

SOYBEAN MEAL / CORN MONTHLY NEARBY FUTURES PRICE RATIO

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25Ja

n-8

0

Ja

n-8

1

Ja

n-8

2

Ja

n-8

3

Ja

n-8

4

Ja

n-8

5

Ja

n-8

6

Ja

n-8

7

Ja

n-8

8

Ja

n-8

9

Ja

n-9

0

Ja

n-9

1

Ja

n-9

2

Ja

n-9

3

Ja

n-9

4

Ja

n-9

5

Ja

n-9

6

Ja

n-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ra

tio

Source: CQG Expect the meal/corn ratio to move to 2.5. Based on a corn price of $3.15-$4.75 per bushel, soybean meal would be $288-$424 per ton

Page 26: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

26

NET POSITION FUTURES AND OPTIONS OF LARGE SPECULATORS IN SOYMEAL

-55000

-50000

-45000

-40000

-35000

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

4/1

8/1

99

5

8/2

9/1

99

5

12

/26

/19

95

4/9

/19

96

7/2

3/1

99

6

11

/5/1

99

6

2/1

8/1

99

7

6/3

/19

97

9/1

6/1

99

7

12

/30

/19

97

4/1

4/1

99

8

7/2

8/1

99

8

11

/10

/19

98

2/2

3/1

99

9

6/8

/19

99

9/2

1/1

99

9

1/4

/20

00

4/1

8/2

00

0

8/1

/20

00

11

/14

/20

00

2/2

7/2

00

1

6/1

2/2

00

1

9/2

5/2

00

1

1/8

/20

02

4/2

3/2

00

2

8/6

/20

02

11

/19

/20

02

3/4

/20

03

6/1

7/2

00

3

9/3

0/2

00

3

1/1

3/2

00

4

4/2

7/2

00

4

8/1

0/2

00

4

11

/23

/20

04

3/8

/20

05

7/5

/20

05

10

/18

/20

05

1/3

1/2

00

6

5/1

6/2

00

6

8/2

9/2

00

6

12

/12

/20

06

3/2

7/2

00

7

7/1

0/2

00

7

10

/23

/20

07

Record net short: 47,891 on 09/12/2006

Record net long: 79,657 on 12/11/2007

Record speculator net long position, but there appears to be a large pool of investor money still moving into long commodities. A major washout may be a year away

Page 27: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

27

TOTAL FUTURES AND OPTIONS OPEN INTEREST IN SOYMEAL

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

220000

240000

260000

280000

300000

4/1

8/1

99

5

8/2

9/1

99

5

12

/26

/19

95

4/9

/19

96

7/2

3/1

99

6

11

/5/1

99

6

2/1

8/1

99

7

6/3

/19

97

9/1

6/1

99

7

12

/30

/19

97

4/1

4/1

99

8

7/2

8/1

99

8

11

/10

/19

98

2/2

3/1

99

9

6/8

/19

99

9/2

1/1

99

9

1/4

/20

00

4/1

8/2

00

0

8/8

/20

00

11

/21

/20

00

3/6

/20

01

6/1

9/2

00

1

9/1

8/2

00

1

12

/28

/20

01

4/9

/20

02

7/2

3/2

00

2

11

/5/2

00

2

2/1

8/2

00

3

6/3

/20

03

9/1

6/2

00

3

12

/30

/20

03

4/1

2/2

00

4

7/2

7/2

00

4

11

/9/2

00

4

2/2

2/2

00

5

6/2

1/2

00

5

10

/4/2

00

5

1/1

7/2

00

6

5/2

/20

06

8/1

5/2

00

6

11

/28

/20

06

3/1

3/2

00

7

6/2

6/2

00

7

10

/9/2

00

7

Page 28: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

28

SOYBEAN MONTHLY BOARD CRUSH MARGINS

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Jan

-80

Jan

-81

Jan

-82

Jan

-83

Jan

-84

Jan

-85

Jan

-86

Jan

-87

Jan

-88

Jan

-89

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Jan

-93

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

CE

NT

S/B

US

HE

L

Source: CQG Expect sideways to lower trend for crush margins as US soybean supply tightens and soybeans become more difficult to secure. November soybean stocks at mills were already lower than expected.

Page 29: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

29

Protein Meal Consumption & Feeding RatesThousand Tons, Tons/Thousand HPCAU

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

CS, CSM, SFM, CM 48% DDGS 48% SOYMEAL/HPCAU Right Scale

Increasing supply of DDGS due to growth in ethanol production. So far, little impact on displacing soybean meal

Page 30: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

30

US Soybean meal Commitments, Around October 25, Million Tonnes

0.98

1.451.56

1.16

1.38

1.00

1.93

3.02

2.22

1.78

1.30

2.30

1.89

2.152.20

1.73

2.04

2.48

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Page 31: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

31

Soybean Meal

100

150

200

250

300

350

19

/08

/01

19

/10

/01

19

/12

/01

19

/02

/02

19

/04

/02

19

/06

/02

19

/08

/02

19

/10

/02

19

/12

/02

19

/02

/03

19

/04

/03

19

/06

/03

19

/08

/03

19

/10

/03

19

/12

/03

19

/02

/04

19

/04

/04

19

/06

/04

19

/08

/04

19

/10

/04

19

/12

/04

19

/02

/05

19

/04

/05

19

/06

/05

19

/08

/05

19

/10

/05

19

/12

/05

19

/02

/06

19

/04

/06

19

/06

/06

19

/08

/06

19

/10

/06

19

/12

/06

19

/02

/07

19

/04

/07

19

/06

/07

19

/08

/07

19

/10

/07

19

/12

/07

SBM-Close (Last Trade)

Page 32: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

32

Soy Complex

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

25/1

1/01

20/0

1/02

17/0

3/02

12/0

5/02

07/0

7/02

01/0

9/02

27/1

0/02

22/1

2/02

16/0

2/03

13/0

4/03

08/0

6/03

03/0

8/03

28/0

9/03

23/1

1/03

18/0

1/04

14/0

3/04

09/0

5/04

04/0

7/04

29/0

8/04

24/1

0/04

19/1

2/04

13/0

2/05

10/0

4/05

05/0

6/05

31/0

7/05

25/0

9/05

20/1

1/05

15/0

1/06

12/0

3/06

07/0

5/06

02/0

7/06

27/0

8/06

22/1

0/06

17/1

2/06

11/0

2/07

08/0

4/07

03/0

6/07

29/0

7/07

23/0

9/07

18/1

1/07

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SBM-Close (Last Trade)

SB -Close (Last Trade)

SBOil - Close (Last Trade)

Page 33: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

33

SOYBEAN MEAL YEARLY HIGH, LOW, AVERAGE PRICES FOR NEARBY SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES

288

197

259246

159 163

194

325

268

192200 195

238

214204

267

295

245

156

188196 191

203

336

232

204

283

181

152 150143

118

133 136

168181

161 160 161

177

162153

193205

125 121

143 147 143

161 156147

157163

400

240

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

$/T

ON

HIGH LOW AVERAGE

2007/08 Citi Est.

Source: CQG & Citi, 2007-08 Est.

Page 34: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

34

Corn outlook

Page 35: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

35

Nearby Average Soybean/Corn Price Ratio vs. Soybean/corn Stocks to Use

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20

3.30

3.40

3.50

0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70

Soybean stocks/usage versus Corn Stocks/usage

96

97

98

9901

2

3

4

5

6

7

Soybean stocks/usage is 5.5, Corn stocks/usage is 13.7the ratio of the soybean/corn stocks/usage is 0.40 (x axis)the average soybean/corn price ratio is 2.80. Corn prices are expected to range from $3.15-$4.75 putting the seasonal range for soybeans at $8.82-$$13.30. The September low for nearby futures of $8.80 is expected to hold with prices trending higher towards $13.00

Citi Est

Page 36: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

36

SOYBEAN/CORN MONTHLY NEARBY FUTURES PRICE RATIO

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

3.20

3.30

3.40

3.50

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00Ja

n-8

0

Jan

-81

Jan

-82

Jan

-83

Jan

-84

Jan

-85

Jan

-86

Jan

-87

Jan

-88

Jan

-89

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Jan

-93

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Ra

tio

Source: CQG

Expect the soybean/corn ratio to trend higher next year. During the marketing year, will expect spikes above 3.0. The new Energy Bill supports ethanol and will make it more difficult to secure more soybean acres

Page 37: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

37

(000 ACRES)

Oct Citi1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

CORN 79537 80165 77386 79551 75752 78894 78603 80929 81779 78327 93616 88000SORGHUM 10052 9626 9288 9195 10252 9589 9420 7486 6454 6522 7704 7800OATS 5068 4892 4673 4477 4403 4995 4597 4085 4246 4168 3760 3800BARLEY 6706 6337 5194 5864 4967 5008 5348 4527 3875 3452 4020 4200WINTER WHEAT 47985 46449 43331 43393 41078 41766 45384 43350 40433 40575 44987 48500DURUM 3310 3805 4035 3937 2910 2913 2915 2561 2760 1870 2149 2650OTHER SPRING 19117 15567 15348 15299 15629 15639 13842 13763 14036 14899 13297 14650RICE 3125 3345 3531 3060 3334 3240 3022 3347 3384 2838 2748 2850SOYBEANS 70005 72025 73730 74266 74075 73963 73404 75208 72032 75522 63669 70000PEANUTS 1434 1521 1534 1537 1541 1353 1344 1430 1657 1243 1225 1220SUNFLOWER 2888 3668 3553 2840 2633 2581 2344 1873 2709 1950 2075 2050COTTON 13898 13393 14874 15517 15769 13958 13480 13659 14245 15274 10847 9500HAY Harvested 61084 60076 63220 59854 63521 63942 63383 61966 61729 60807 61789 61000EDIBLE BEANS 1870 2014 2023 1758 1436 1930 1406 1354 1630 1630 1527 1500TOBACCO Harvested 836 718 647 472 432 427 411 408 297 339 355 300SUGARBEETS 1459 1498 1561 1564 1371 1427 1365 1346 1300 1367 1266 1200CANOLA/RAPESEED 671 1115 1081 1555 1494 1460 1082 865 1159 1044 1183 1000

TOTAL - JAN/TO DATE* 329045 326214 325008 324139 320597 323085 321350 318157 313725 311827 316217TOTAL - JUNE 331330 324903 324529 326810 322916 323094 322705 319055 315792 314107 316067TOTAL - MARCH 330602 326671 320725 325530 324767 321293 322845 320487 318528 313214 317892 320220AREA ADJUSTMENTSDOUBLE CROPPED SOY 7182 6794 4637 4586 4064 4127 3875 4374 2550 3718 5126 6800CRP 32794 30437 29869 31408 33608 33964 34110 34707 34902 36003 36790 34553ADJUSTED AREA TOTAL 354657 349857 350240 350961 350141 352922 351585 348490 346077 344112 347731 347973*January Crop Production -4801 383 721 -820 2781 -1337 -3095 -2413 -1965 3620 242Source: Citi/USDAMAR-JAN Prv Year -2374 -5489 522 628 696 -240 -863 371 -511 4241 4003

U.S. ACREAGE OF 15 MAJOR CROPSPLANTED UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED

Page 38: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

38

U.S. ACREAGE OF MAJOR CROPS

342000

344000

346000

348000

350000

352000

354000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

AR

EA

IN

TH

OU

SA

ND

AC

RE

S

SOURCE: USDA & Citi

Citi Est

The capacity to bring new land into production is limited.

Page 39: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

39

Page 40: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

40

Page 41: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

41

Page 42: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

42

Page 43: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

43

CORN STOCKS TO USE RATIO VS. CROP YEAR AVERAGE PRICES FOR CORN1989-2006

150

200

250

300

350

400

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0

STOCKS TO USE AS PERCENTAGE

CE

NT

/BU

SH

EL

95/96

96/97

91/92

90/91

94/95

92/93

99/00

97/98

98/99

00/01

03/04

02/03

93/94

01/02

89/90

04/05

U

05/06

CITI07-08

06/07

USDA 07-08

Source: USDA, CQG, & Citi

Ethanol keeps shifting the price curve upwards. The price curve is likely higher than the line running through 06/07.

Page 44: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

44

NET POSITION FUTURES AND OPTIONS OF LARGE SPECULATORS IN CORN

-160000

-140000

-120000

-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

220000

240000

260000

280000

300000

320000

340000

360000

380000

4/1

8/1

99

5

8/2

9/1

99

5

12

/26

/19

95

4/9

/19

96

7/2

3/1

99

6

11

/5/1

99

6

2/1

8/1

99

7

6/3

/19

97

9/1

6/1

99

7

12

/30

/19

97

4/1

4/1

99

8

7/2

8/1

99

8

11

/10

/19

98

2/2

3/1

99

9

6/8

/19

99

9/2

1/1

99

9

1/4

/20

00

4/1

8/2

00

0

8/1

/20

00

11

/14

/20

00

2/2

7/2

00

1

6/1

2/2

00

1

9/2

5/2

00

1

1/8

/20

02

4/2

3/2

00

2

8/6

/20

02

11

/19

/20

02

3/4

/20

03

6/1

7/2

00

3

9/3

0/2

00

3

1/1

3/2

00

4

4/2

7/2

00

4

8/1

0/2

00

4

11

/23

/20

04

3/8

/20

05

7/5

/20

05

10

/18

/20

05

1/3

1/2

00

6

5/1

6/2

00

6

8/2

9/2

00

6

12

/12

/20

06

3/2

7/2

00

7

7/1

0/2

00

7

10

/23

/20

07

Record net long: 346,048 on 02/27/2007

Record net short: 129,284 on 02/08/2005

Page 45: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

45

The cash picture

Page 46: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

46

Futures Soybeans

1080

1100

1120

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

JAN8 MAR8 MAY8 JUL8 AUG8 SEP8 NOV8 JAN9 MAR9

Page 47: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

47

Futures Soy Meal

280

290300

310

320330

340

350

360370

380

JAN8 MAR8 MAY8 JUL8 AUG8 SEP8 OCT8 DEC8 JAN9

Page 48: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

48

Futures Corn

440

445

450

455

460

465

470

MAR8 MAY8 JUL8 SEP8 DEC8

Page 49: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

49

Cash Soybeans

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

Jan Mar May July Sept Nov

US Flat

Brazil Flat

Page 50: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

50

Cash Soy Meal

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

Jan Mar May July Sept Nov

US Flat

Arg Flat

Page 51: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

51

Cash Corn

400

450

500

550

600

Jan Mar May July Sept Nov

US Flat

Arg Flat

Page 52: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

52

Thank you!

Page 53: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

53

Soybean Oil VD Light Crude mineral Oil

13

23

33

43

53

63

73

83

93

103

25

/11

/01

25

/01

/02

25

/03

/02

25

/05

/02

25

/07

/02

25

/09

/02

25

/11

/02

25

/01

/03

25

/03

/03

25

/05

/03

25

/07

/03

25

/09

/03

25

/11

/03

25

/01

/04

25

/03

/04

25

/05

/04

25

/07

/04

25

/09

/04

25

/11

/04

25

/01

/05

25

/03

/05

25

/05

/05

25

/07

/05

25

/09

/05

25

/11

/05

25

/01

/06

25

/03

/06

25

/05

/06

25

/07

/06

25

/09

/06

25

/11

/06

25

/01

/07

25

/03

/07

25

/05

/07

25

/07

/07

25

/09

/07

25

/11

/07

SBOil - Close (Last Trade)

Crude Oil -Close (Last Trade)

Page 54: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

54

Freight

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

09

/05

/99

09

/08

/99

09

/11

/99

09

/02

/00

09

/05

/00

09

/08

/00

09

/11

/00

09

/02

/01

09

/05

/01

09

/08

/01

09

/11

/01

09

/02

/02

09

/05

/02

09

/08

/02

09

/11

/02

09

/02

/03

09

/05

/03

09

/08

/03

09

/11

/03

09

/02

/04

09

/05

/04

09

/08

/04

09

/11

/04

09

/02

/05

09

/05

/05

09

/08

/05

09

/11

/05

09

/02

/06

09

/05

/06

09

/08

/06

09

/11

/06

09

/02

/07

09

/05

/07

09

/08

/07

09

/11

/07

Freight-Close(Last Trade)

Page 55: 1. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.

55


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