1 ERC

Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town

Climate change mitigation in the context of development

HARALD WINKLER

INAUGURAL LECTURE 17 August 2011

2 ERC

3 ERC

Concentration of Greenhouse

gases

Source: SAWS Annual Report 08/09Data from Global Atmosphere Watch at SA Weather Service, at Cape Point

4 ERC

5 ERC

6 ERCSource: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001

7 ERC

Climate change impacts on people and ecosystems

8 ERCSource: Left: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001; Right: Smith et al 2009 PNAS

9 ERC

10 ERC

Mitigation is urgent. Time to bend the curve is shortSource: Meinshausen, 2005

11 ERC

…. after they have exhausted all other possibilities.

Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing

Sir Winston Churchill

12 ERC

World by historical cumulative fossil fuel emissions 1900-1999compared to Peters equal area projection

13 ERC

Pledges add up to a 3.2ºC world (or so)

Source: http://www.climateactiontracker.org/ Climate Analytics, Ecofys, PIK

14 ERC

15 ERC

16 ERCSource: Sustainable Energy Africa

17 ERC

Spatial distribution of population in Gauteng (2001 census)Compared to Jakarta, London and Paris

Spatial distribution of population in Gauteng (2001 census)Compared to Jakarta, London and Paris

18 ERC

renew-ables

oil

gas

coal

FUEL MIX

Transformation

- power plants

- refineries

- synthetic fuel

End use

- tons steel / GJ

- passengerkmllitre

- lumens/Watt

ENERGYEFFICIENCY

Nationalemissions

X X =

ECONOMICSTRUCTURE

1O

2O 3O

Three broad areas to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Source: Winkler 2009 adapted from R Spalding-Fecher, EDRC

19 ERC

The minerals-energy complex

AluminiumIron and steelFerrochromeManganese

GoldCoal

PlatinumMinerals-sands

AngloExxaroXstrata

Arcelor MittalBHP-Billiton

Lonmin

Coal input

Eskom

Cheapelectricity

CTL + chemicals71 Mt/yr

Emissions of 230 Mt/yr

Policy processes• IRP• Carbon tax• Planning Commission

PROFIT

PROFIT

Sasol

Source: Jesse Burton, ERC

20 ERC

Use less energy,

more efficiently,

mostly renewables

21 ERC

22 ERC

0

150

300

-R 34

Industrial efficiency

0

25

50

R 697

Biofuel subsidy

0

25

50

R 1,987

Hybrids

0

150

300

450

600

R 42

Escalating CO2 tax

0

150

300Renewables w ith learning,

extended

R3

Source: SBT 2007, LTMS Scenario Building Team, 2007, Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios: Strategic Options for South Africa

23 ERC

0

150

300

R 102

Electric vehicles w ith nuclear, renewables

0

150

300

R 92

Renewables, extended

0

150

300

R 125

Subsidy for renewables

0

150

300

R 20

Nuclear, extended

0

150

300

-R 34

Industrial efficiency

0

150

300

R 18

Nuclear

0

150

300

R 52

Renewables

0

150

300

-R 269

Improved vehicle efficiency

All Medium Wedges

0

150

300All Small Wedges

0

25

50

0

25

50

R 72

CCS 20 Mt

0

25

50

R 697

Biofuel subsidy

0

25

50

-R 5

Cleaner coal

0

25

50

-R 208

SWH subsidy

0

25

50

-R 198

Residential efficiency

0

25

50

-R 15

Fire control

0

25

50

R 1,987

Hybrids

0

25

50

-R 1,131

Passenger modal shift

0

25

50

R 524

Biofuels

0

25

50

R 607

Electric vehicles in GWC grid

0

25

50

-R 203

Commercial efficiency

0

25

50

R 14

Waste management

0

25

50

R 105

Synfuels CCS 23 Mt

0

150

300

450

600

R 42

Escalating CO2 tax

0

150

300Renewables with learning,

extended

R3

0

5

10

R 50

Enteric fermentation

0

5

10

-R 19

Manure management

0

5

10

R 24

Reduced tillage

0

5

10

R 39

Afforestation

0

5

10R 346

Coal mine methane

0

5

10R 476

Synfuels CCS 2 Mt

0

5

10R 8

Synfuels methane

0

5

10R 0

Aluminium

0

5

10

-R 4,404

Limit less eff

24 ERC

Peak

Decline

Plateau550

Source: RSA 2008 Government’s vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy. Presentation by the Minister of

Environmental Affairs and Tourism on the July Cabinet lekgotla

25 ERCSource: Andrew Marquard, ERC

26 ERC

Data source: US census, lower estimates

Growth … of world population

27 ERC

Source: Lawrence & Williamson, 2011

Growth … of China’s GDP

28 ERC

US energy consumption by energy resource

1635-2000 (in Quadrillion Btu)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Growth … of US energy consumption

29 ERC

Growth … of money

Growth of R1000 over 100 years at 15% per year

30 ERC

The commitment to visionary politics that got us to where we are now is gone. It’s

gone. Let’s not kid ourselves. We have to wake up now and re-dream.

Njabulo Ndebele, ‘Renewing Citizenship’

31 ERC

THANK YOU

www.erc.uct.ac.za

We inhabit a climate of trust as we inhabit an atmosphere and notice it as

we notice air, only when it becomes scarce and polluted.

Annette Baier 1986