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Using Non-Customs Data in Compiling U.S. Trade Data.

UN Recommendations on Uses of Non-Customs Data Sources:

• Current Recommendation:

· Use if Customs records do not provide data or data is inadequate. 

• Future Recommendations:

· Specific use of non-Customs sources and compilation strategies.

·  Address explicitly issues of valuation and time of recording.

 

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The U.S. Experience with Using Non-Customs

Data Sources:

• The US/Canada Data Exchange (A Unique Solution).

• Non-customs data uses related to the Data Exchange:

· Electricity flows.

· Natural Gas imports.

· Railcars imports (an interim solution).

• Estimation for low-valued transactions.

• Estimation of small parcel trade (a proposed future solution)

• Measurement of foreign military sales.

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The US/Canada Data Exchange:

 • Problems:

· In mid 1980’s negotiations on NAFTA plagued by data discrepancies.

· Reconciliation studies reveal significant undercount of each country’s export data.

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The US/Canada Data Exchange:

• Solutions:

· 1987 Memorandum of Understanding on the Exchange of Import Data.

· US data measure southbound trade – Canadian data northbound.

· Exchange of data begins January 1990.

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The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued):

• Alignment:

· Import data expanded to satisfy partner exports needs.

· Commodity classifications aligned.

· Data release dates/times aligned.

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The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued) :

• Benefits:

· Disputes concerning data disappear.

· Exporters relieved of data submission burden.

· Customs and statistical agencies able to reallocate resources.

 

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The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued):

• Current Status:

· Over 20 million records exchanged in 2007. · Represents over $560 billion in two way trade. · Savings in processing costs enormous.

 

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Electricity Flows:

• Issues:

· US/Canada Data Exchange requires alignment.

· Electricity historically included in US national accounts as a service.

· Canada included electricity in merchandise trade data.

 

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Electricity Flows (Continued):

• Changes:

· The US agrees to include electricity in merchandise trade data. · The US begins using data supplied by Canada. · In 2007 electricity transactions to and from Canada totaled

$3.7 billion. · Note: Electricity flows to and from Mexico continue to be included

as services.

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Natural Gas Imports:

• Issues:

· US Customs reports of natural gas imports from Canada incomplete.

· US import figures significantly understated when compared with independent Canadian exports.

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Natural Gas Imports (Continued):

•  Changes:

· In the early 1990’s Census begins using Canadian export data.

· In 2007 natural gas imports from Canada totaled $22.4 billion.

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Canadian Railcars (An Interim Solution): 

• Issues:

· Change in legislation allows entry of railcars without documentation.

· Reported imports of railcars from Canada (chief US supplier) drop sharply.

· Canada establishes survey of manufactures to address under coverage in its export figures.

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Canadian Railcars (An Interim Proposal):

• Interim Proposal:

· As an interim solution to the under coverage US proposes to use Canadian survey data.

· In the meantime, the US will work to restore import coverage.

· Imports of railcars from Canada estimated at over $500 million in 2007.

· Note: A similar problem may exist with Mexico but imports are minimal.

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Estimation of Low-Valued Transactions: 

• Issues:

· US importers/exporters exempt from filing requirements for low-valued transactions.

· Source data disappears for low-valued transactions.

 

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Estimation of Low-Valued Transactions (Continued):

• Solutions:

· Census develops estimating methodology.

· Estimating factors (ratios) applied by country.

· Factors updated as exemption levels increase and re-bench marked periodically.

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Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal):

• Issues:

· Research shows estimated low-value trade understated.

· Last new data on low-valued transactions 20 years old.

· Census researchers look at various ways to address underestimate.

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Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued):

• Courier Data:

· Research identifies small parcel shipments as significant part of low-value universe.

· Courier companies supply data that confirms research.

· Estimating methodology using courier data proposed.

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Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued):

• Proposed Methodology:

· Divide universe of reported records into courier/non-courier segments.

· Continue to apply current factors to non-courier segment.

· Apply estimating factors derived from courier data to courier segment.

 

 

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Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued):

• Expected Results:

· The export low-valued estimates would increase by about $ 4 billion a year.

· The import estimate (with some other methods changes) would increase by about $ 3 billion annually.

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Foreign Military Sales:

• Issues:

· Goods are consigned to military services.

· Goods move through military facilities.

· Movements are outside customs jurisdiction.

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Foreign Military Sales (Continued):

• Solutions:

· Monthly reports collected from military services.

· Data compiled from reports.

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Conclusion:

• US successfully using Non-Customs Data Sources.  

· US/Canada Data Exchange a prime example.

• US Policy on using Non-Customs Sources.

· As a policy US Census prefers to first work with Customs to address coverage issues.

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Conclusion:

• US response to UN Questions.

· In response to UN questions we stated; “For the US, Customs data continue to be the preferred means of collecting quality and timely merchandise trade data”.

· We recommended that efforts first be made to improve the quality and coverage of Customs data before alternative

methods are used.

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Questions:

· Do you use non-customs source data in compiling your trade statistics programs?

· What have your experiences been in using these non-customs sources?

· What are your thoughts on the UN proposal concerning non-customs sources?