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Using Non-Customs Data in Compiling U.S. Trade Data.
UN Recommendations on Uses of Non-Customs Data Sources:
• Current Recommendation:
· Use if Customs records do not provide data or data is inadequate.
• Future Recommendations:
· Specific use of non-Customs sources and compilation strategies.
· Address explicitly issues of valuation and time of recording.
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The U.S. Experience with Using Non-Customs
Data Sources:
• The US/Canada Data Exchange (A Unique Solution).
• Non-customs data uses related to the Data Exchange:
· Electricity flows.
· Natural Gas imports.
· Railcars imports (an interim solution).
• Estimation for low-valued transactions.
• Estimation of small parcel trade (a proposed future solution)
• Measurement of foreign military sales.
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The US/Canada Data Exchange:
• Problems:
· In mid 1980’s negotiations on NAFTA plagued by data discrepancies.
· Reconciliation studies reveal significant undercount of each country’s export data.
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The US/Canada Data Exchange:
• Solutions:
· 1987 Memorandum of Understanding on the Exchange of Import Data.
· US data measure southbound trade – Canadian data northbound.
· Exchange of data begins January 1990.
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The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued):
• Alignment:
· Import data expanded to satisfy partner exports needs.
· Commodity classifications aligned.
· Data release dates/times aligned.
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The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued) :
• Benefits:
· Disputes concerning data disappear.
· Exporters relieved of data submission burden.
· Customs and statistical agencies able to reallocate resources.
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The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued):
• Current Status:
· Over 20 million records exchanged in 2007. · Represents over $560 billion in two way trade. · Savings in processing costs enormous.
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Electricity Flows:
• Issues:
· US/Canada Data Exchange requires alignment.
· Electricity historically included in US national accounts as a service.
· Canada included electricity in merchandise trade data.
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Electricity Flows (Continued):
• Changes:
· The US agrees to include electricity in merchandise trade data. · The US begins using data supplied by Canada. · In 2007 electricity transactions to and from Canada totaled
$3.7 billion. · Note: Electricity flows to and from Mexico continue to be included
as services.
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Natural Gas Imports:
• Issues:
· US Customs reports of natural gas imports from Canada incomplete.
· US import figures significantly understated when compared with independent Canadian exports.
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Natural Gas Imports (Continued):
• Changes:
· In the early 1990’s Census begins using Canadian export data.
· In 2007 natural gas imports from Canada totaled $22.4 billion.
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Canadian Railcars (An Interim Solution):
• Issues:
· Change in legislation allows entry of railcars without documentation.
· Reported imports of railcars from Canada (chief US supplier) drop sharply.
· Canada establishes survey of manufactures to address under coverage in its export figures.
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Canadian Railcars (An Interim Proposal):
• Interim Proposal:
· As an interim solution to the under coverage US proposes to use Canadian survey data.
· In the meantime, the US will work to restore import coverage.
· Imports of railcars from Canada estimated at over $500 million in 2007.
· Note: A similar problem may exist with Mexico but imports are minimal.
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Estimation of Low-Valued Transactions:
• Issues:
· US importers/exporters exempt from filing requirements for low-valued transactions.
· Source data disappears for low-valued transactions.
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Estimation of Low-Valued Transactions (Continued):
• Solutions:
· Census develops estimating methodology.
· Estimating factors (ratios) applied by country.
· Factors updated as exemption levels increase and re-bench marked periodically.
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Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal):
• Issues:
· Research shows estimated low-value trade understated.
· Last new data on low-valued transactions 20 years old.
· Census researchers look at various ways to address underestimate.
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Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued):
• Courier Data:
· Research identifies small parcel shipments as significant part of low-value universe.
· Courier companies supply data that confirms research.
· Estimating methodology using courier data proposed.
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Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued):
• Proposed Methodology:
· Divide universe of reported records into courier/non-courier segments.
· Continue to apply current factors to non-courier segment.
· Apply estimating factors derived from courier data to courier segment.
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Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued):
• Expected Results:
· The export low-valued estimates would increase by about $ 4 billion a year.
· The import estimate (with some other methods changes) would increase by about $ 3 billion annually.
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Foreign Military Sales:
• Issues:
· Goods are consigned to military services.
· Goods move through military facilities.
· Movements are outside customs jurisdiction.
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Foreign Military Sales (Continued):
• Solutions:
· Monthly reports collected from military services.
· Data compiled from reports.
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Conclusion:
• US successfully using Non-Customs Data Sources.
· US/Canada Data Exchange a prime example.
• US Policy on using Non-Customs Sources.
· As a policy US Census prefers to first work with Customs to address coverage issues.
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Conclusion:
• US response to UN Questions.
· In response to UN questions we stated; “For the US, Customs data continue to be the preferred means of collecting quality and timely merchandise trade data”.
· We recommended that efforts first be made to improve the quality and coverage of Customs data before alternative
methods are used.
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Questions:
· Do you use non-customs source data in compiling your trade statistics programs?
· What have your experiences been in using these non-customs sources?
· What are your thoughts on the UN proposal concerning non-customs sources?