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Elsevier Editorial System(tm) for International Journal of Research in Marketing Manuscript Draft Manuscript Number: IJRM-D-11-00481R3 Title: A Comparison of Different Pay-Per-Bid Auction Formats Article Type: Full Length Article Corresponding Author: Dr. Ju-Young Kim, Corresponding Author's Institution: Goethe-University Frankfurt First Author: Ju-Young Kim Order of Authors: Ju-Young Kim; Tobias Brünner; Bernd Skiera; Martin Natter Abstract: Pay-per-bid auctions are a popular new type of Internet auction that is unique because a fee is charged for each bid that is placed. This paper uses a theoretical model and three large empirical data sets with 44,614 ascending and 1,460 descending pay-per-bid auctions to compare the economic effects of different pay-per-bid auction formats, such as different price increments and ascending versus descending auctions. The theoretical model suggests revenue equivalence between different price increments and descending and ascending auctions. The empirical results, however, refute the theoretical predictions: ascending auctions with smaller price increments yield, on average, higher revenues per auction than ascending auctions with higher price increments, but their revenues vary much more strongly. On average, ascending auctions yield higher revenues per auction than descending auctions, but results differ strongly across product categories. Additionally, revenues per ascending auction also vary much more strongly. Forthcoming IJRM Volume 31 #4 (2014)
Transcript
Page 1: (2014) 31 #4 Volume IJRM Forthcomingportal.idc.ac.il/en/main/research/ijrm/documents... · this model is that the bidders who win an auction can potentially save more than 99% off

Elsevier Editorial System(tm) for

International Journal of Research in Marketing

Manuscript Draft

Manuscript Number: IJRM-D-11-00481R3

Title: A Comparison of Different Pay-Per-Bid Auction Formats

Article Type: Full Length Article

Corresponding Author: Dr. Ju-Young Kim,

Corresponding Author's Institution: Goethe-University Frankfurt

First Author: Ju-Young Kim

Order of Authors: Ju-Young Kim; Tobias Brünner; Bernd Skiera; Martin

Natter

Abstract: Pay-per-bid auctions are a popular new type of Internet auction

that is unique because a fee is charged for each bid that is placed. This

paper uses a theoretical model and three large empirical data sets with

44,614 ascending and 1,460 descending pay-per-bid auctions to compare the

economic effects of different pay-per-bid auction formats, such as

different price increments and ascending versus descending auctions. The

theoretical model suggests revenue equivalence between different price

increments and descending and ascending auctions. The empirical results,

however, refute the theoretical predictions: ascending auctions with

smaller price increments yield, on average, higher revenues per auction

than ascending auctions with higher price increments, but their revenues

vary much more strongly. On average, ascending auctions yield higher

revenues per auction than descending auctions, but results differ

strongly across product categories. Additionally, revenues per ascending

auction also vary much more strongly.

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A Comparison of Different Pay-per-Bid Auction

Formats

Ju-Young Kim, Tobias Brünner, Bernd Skiera, and Martin Natter

Ju-Young Kim, Assistant Professor

Goethe-University Frankfurt, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Marketing,

Grueneburgplatz 1, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Phone: ++49-69-798-34634, Fax: ++49-69-798-35001, E-Mail: [email protected]

Tobias Brünner, Assistant Professor

Goethe-University Frankfurt, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Management und

Microeconomics, Grueneburgplatz 1, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Phone: ++49-69-798-34831, Fax: ++49-69-798-, E-Mail: [email protected]

Bernd Skiera, Chaired Professor of Electronic Commerce

Goethe-University Frankfurt, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Marketing,

Grueneburgplatz 1, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Phone: ++49-69-798-34649, Fax: ++49-69-798-35001, E-Mail: [email protected]

Martin Natter, Chaired Professor of Retail Marketing

Goethe-University Frankfurt, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Marketing,

Grueneburgplatz 1, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Phone: ++49-69-798-34650, Fax: ++49-69-798-35001, E-Mail: [email protected]

==========================================================

ARTICLE INFO

Article history:

First received on November 2, 2011 and was under review for 10 months

Area Editor: Sandy D. Jap

============================================================

Acknowledgements

We thank Jochen Reiner and the participants of presentations of this paper at the University of New

South Wales and the Monash University. We appreciate the many valuable suggestions and comments

from the previous editor, Marnik Dekimpe, the editor, Jacob Goldenberg, as well as the anonymous

reviewers.

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A Comparison of Different Pay-per-Bid Auction Formats

Abstract

Pay-per-bid auctions are a popular new type of Internet auction that is unique because a fee is

charged for each bid that is placed. This paper uses a theoretical model and three large empirical

data sets with 44,614 ascending and 1,460 descending pay-per-bid auctions to compare the

economic effects of different pay-per-bid auction formats, such as different price increments and

ascending versus descending auctions. The theoretical model suggests revenue equivalence

between different price increments and descending and ascending auctions. The empirical results,

however, refute the theoretical predictions: ascending auctions with smaller price increments

yield, on average, higher revenues per auction than ascending auctions with higher price

increments, but their revenues vary much more strongly. On average, ascending auctions yield

higher revenues per auction than descending auctions, but results differ strongly across product

categories. Additionally, revenues per ascending auction also vary much more strongly.

Keywords: pay-per-bid auction, bidding fees, online marketing, electronic commerce, pricing,

auction

FINAL APPROVED MANUSCRIPTClick here to view linked References

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1. Introduction

Pay-per-bid auctions offered by retailers, such as Quibids, Bidcactus and MadBid, are

exciting, fast-paced business-to-consumer online auctions that are attracting significant interest

from consumers, popular press and start-up companies. Unlike other well-known auctions sites,

such as eBay, pay-per-bid auctions charge a fee for each bid that is placed, regardless of whether

one wins the auction. Additionally, a bid placed increases the price by a certain increment that is

chosen by the auctioneer.

At first glance, fee-based bidding does not sound attractive because the bidder encounters the

risk of having to pay bidding fees without winning the auction. However, the compelling part of

this model is that the bidders who win an auction can potentially save more than 99% off the

current retail price (CRP) of the product. For example, on MadBid.com, a new MINI One car was

sold for €8.47 rather than its retail price of €15,000. Similarly, a new Kymco scooter, which

regularly sells for €1,240, was sold for €0.40.

Popular magazines, newspapers and online blogs are replete with heated discussions

regarding this emerging type of auction.1 Although some commentators are enthusiastic about the

attractive deals offered by pay-per-bid auctions and how enjoyable they are, others strongly warn

consumers against participating in them. Such commentators point to potentially huge losses for

1 For magazines, see for example, Last, Jonathan V. (February 23, 2009) “Take a chance on an auction; Swoopo and

the rise of Entertainment Shopping” in The Weekly Standard; (December, 2011) “Can you buy products dirt cheap on QuiBids? Behind the hype” in Consumer Reports. For newspapers, see for example, King, Marc (January 28, 2012) “How penny auction websites can leave you with a hole in your pocket” in The Guardian; Zimmerman, Ann (August 17, 2011) “Penny auctions draw bidders with bargains, suspense” in The Wall Street Journal; Choi, Candice (June, 24, 2011) “Penny auction sites could cost a chunk of change” in The Washington Times; ConsumerReports.org (December 2011) “With penny auctions, you can spend a bundle but still leave empty-handed”; McCarthy, John (June, 2, 2011) “Penny auctions promise savings, overlook downsides” in USA Today; Migoya, David (January 25, 2010) “BARGAIN BIDDERS On penny auction sites, buyers can get gift cards for a fraction of face value -- or pick up a new addiction” in The Denver Post; and Thaler, Richard H. (November 15, 2009) “Paying a Price For the Thrill of the Hunt” in The New York Times. For blogs, see for example, http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2012/07/10/online-auction-virtual-bargain-or-real-rip-off/, http://www.scambook.com/blog/2012/07/penny-auction-fraud-alert-how-you-can-lose-by-winning/, http://www.usatoday.com/tech/columnist/kimkomando/2011-05-13-komando-penny-auctions_n.htm, http://www.thesimpledollar.com/2010/11/20/a-deeper-look-at-quibids-and-why-i-dont-think-its-worth-it/, and http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/01/02/swoopo_startrup/.

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bidders as a result of the high bidding costs, which can easily be in the range of several hundred

dollars per auction. However, all commentators have based their conclusions on a fairly limited

number of observations, some of which are quite anecdotal.

Furthermore, auctioneers lack knowledge regarding how different auction formats influence

their profitability. They frequently adjust their auction formats, and many auctioneers, such as the

pioneer of this type of auction, Swoopo, have become bankrupt. Thus far, only a few researchers

have analyzed pay-per-bid auctions by developing theoretical models (Augenblick, 2012; Gallice,

2011; Platt, Price, & Tappen, 2013) and by testing these models with actual sales data. Others

have empirically compared the effect of the buy-now price feature on bidders' behavior in

ascending penny auctions (Reiner, Natter, & Skiera, 2014). Analysis of the economic effects of

different pay-per-bid auction formats that differ in the sizes and signs of price increments has

thus far been neglected. We are the first researchers to close this gap.

We aim to theoretically and empirically assess the economic effects of different pay-per-bid

auction formats. In particular, we compare different price increments (penny vs. ten-cent

auctions) of ascending auctions as well as of ascending and descending pay-per-bid auctions.

Therefore, we adapt and extend previous theoretical models, formulate predictions regarding the

influence of auction formats on auctioneer revenues and empirically analyze them using three

unique and large empirical data sets. Our data include the results of 44,614 ascending pay-per-bid

auctions and 1,460 descending pay-per-bid auctions along with 1,142,738 bids.

The remainder of this manuscript is structured as follows. In the next section, we compare the

most prominent pay-per-bid auctioneers and outline previous literature on pay-per-bid auctions.

In Section 3, we describe our theoretical models and formulate predictions for the economic

effects of different pay-per-bid auction formats. We investigate the economic influence of

different formats of ascending pay-per-bid auctions in Section 4 and those for descending pay-

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per-bid auctions in Section 5. In Section 6, we compare the results of ascending and descending

auctions. Section 7 summarizes our findings, discusses implications and points to topics for

future research.

2. Pay-per-Bid Auctions

Pay-per-bid auctions are characterized by the association of bidding with tangible costs.

Using traffic data (May 5 to August 5, 2013) from Alexa.com, Table 1 outlines some of the

largest pay-per-bid auctioneers (with a reach of more than 0.001% of all global Internet users)

and the characteristics of their auctions. All ascending auctioneers begin with a price of zero, but

they differ by how much they change the price for each bid. Quibids offer various price

increments that range from €0.01 to €0.15, whereas others increase the price by only €0.01. The

start price of descending auctions is equal to the CRP. Bidding fees are substantial in all auction

formats, ranging from €0.50 to €1.50.

Table 1

Comparison of the Most Popular Pay-per-Bid Auctions

Provider Quibids Dealdash MadBid Beezid Bidcactus ClicxaBids vipauktion

Auction

Format ascending ascending ascending ascending ascending descending descending

Starting

Price $0.00 $0.00 £0.00 $0.00 $0.00 CRP CRP

Bidding Fee $0.60 $0.60 £0.25-£1.20 $0.55-

$0.90 $0.75 varies €1.00-€2.00

Price

Increment

$0.01-

$0.20 $0.01 £0.01 $0.01 $0.01 varies €0.40

Operating

Countries

US/

Europe/

Canada/

Australia

US only

UK/Spain/

Germany/Italy

/ Ireland

US, ships

worldwide

US, also

ships to

Canada

US/Ireland Germany

Market

Share May-

Aug 2013

75.69% 7.60% 5.06% 3.46% 2.95% n.a. n.a.

(% reach) 0.050 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 n.a. n.a.

Market share based on reach between May and Aug 2013; % reach = percentage of all Internet users visiting this

site; CRP: current retail price, with all prices in local currencies; n.a. = not available

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2.1. Description of Pay-per-Bid Auctions

Figure 1 is a graphic illustration of ascending and descending pay-per-bid auctions. An

ascending auction opens with a starting price that is usually €0.00. Each bid increases the price,

and the bidder must pay for each bid. For example, in a typical auction at Quibids, each bid costs

approximately €0.40 and increases the price by €0.01. Additionally, placing a bid delays the end

of the auction by a countdown time (often 20 seconds). The auction ends when the countdown

time has elapsed without an additional bid. The last bidder wins the auction and has the option to

purchase the product from the auctioneer for the price of the final bid.

In contrast, in a descending auction, such as those offered by vipauktion, each placed bid

costs €1.00 to €2.00 and decreases the current price by €0.40. After placing the bid, the bidder

receives information regarding the current price. Hence, in a descending auction, the bid is not

simply a bid in the narrow sense, as it is not a bid on a specific price. However, every placed bid

reveals additional information regarding the current price. When the bidder accepts the current

price, the product is purchased, and the auction ends. Otherwise, the auction continues, and the

bidder can wait and place an additional bid to reveal information regarding an updated (lower)

price.

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Figure 1

Graphic Illustration of Ascending and Descending Pay-per-Bid Auctions

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2.2. Previous Literature

Research on online auctions has recently been increasing in popularity (Barrot, Albers,

Skiera, & Schäfers, 2010; Dholakia, Basuroy, & Soltysinski, 2002; Haruvy & Popkowski

Leszczyc, 2009; Jap & Naik, 2008; Pinker, Seidmann, & Vakrat, 2003). Ever since the broad

acceptance of the Internet online auctions such as eBay have become more popular. As a

consequence, a variety of auction formats have emerged, such as name-your-own-price auctions

(Amaldoss & Jain, 2008; Hinz & Spann, 2008; Spann, Skiera, & Schäfers, 2004) and pay-per-bid

auctions.

Knowledge of ascending pay-per-bid auctions in particular is currently growing. Augenblick

(2012), Hinnosaar (2010) and Platt et al. (2013) were the first researchers to provide theoretical

models of ascending pay-per-bid auctions. Independently of one another, they show that any

subgame perfect equilibrium of an ascending pay-per-bid auction that receives more than one bid

must be in mixed strategies. A mixed strategy in this context means that bidders randomly choose

between bidding and not-bidding in each round of the auction.

According to their theoretical models, Augenblick (2012) and Platt et al. (2013) find

deviations with actual revenues being well above expected revenues. Therefore, Platt et al. (2013)

extend their model to allow for risk preferences (risk-loving/risk-averse vs. risk-neutral), which

leads to expected revenues that better match actual revenues. Byers, Mitzenmacher, and Zervas

(2010) build on the theoretical model developed by Platt et al. (2013) and Augenblick (2012) and

analyze information asymmetries across bidders. Their model shows that when bidders

underestimate the true number of bidders, the duration of the auction and thus the auctioneer’s

revenue increases. In an experimental study, Caldara (2012) shows that neither risk-loving

bidders nor incorrect beliefs regarding the parameters of the auction (such as the number of

bidders) are necessary for observing revenues that exceed the product’s value and thus the

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expected revenues. Moreover, he finds that revenues move closer to the revenues of the

theoretical model as bidders gain experience. The important role of experience is supported by

Wang and Xu (2013), who analyze bid-level data from a large ascending pay-per-bid auction

website and show that losing bidders stop participating in these auctions while others learn,

continue to bid and make profits.

By contrast, there is little research on descending pay-per-bid auctions, as Gallice (2011) is

the only researcher who derives equilibrium bidding behavior in descending pay-per-bid

auctions. He shows that in equilibrium, only two situations can arise: either the product is

purchased at the starting price, or no bid occurs. The reason is that if at least one bidder is willing

to buy at the starting price, then this bidder will buy immediately; if no bidder is willing to buy at

the starting price, then no one will ever observe the price, and the product will not be sold.

However, contrary to his prediction, Gallice (2011) finds (similar to what ascending pay-per-bid

researchers have found) that actual revenues were well above the expected revenues. He explains

the deviations with bounded rationality of the bidders.

Thus far, there is no study that compares the averages and variances of actual and expected

revenues among pay-per-bid auctions with varying sizes (penny vs. ten-cent) or signs (ascending

vs. descending) of price increments. In the following, we will present the theoretical models on

which our empirical analysis is based.

3. Economic Analysis of Pay-per-Bid Auctions

For both auction formats, ascending and descending pay-per-bid auctions, we use the same

assumptions as Platt et al. (2013) and Augenblick (2012). These assumptions lead to a theoretical

model that is similar to the model that Platt et al. (2013) and Augenblick (2012) developed for the

ascending auction and to a special case of the theoretical model that Gallice (2011) suggested for

the descending auction.

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3.1. Model Assumptions

Risk neutral bidders: We assume throughout the study that there are n risk-neutral bidders.

However, the assumption of risk neutrality is not innocuous. Platt et al. (2013) show that

expected revenues of ascending pay-per-bid auctions are decreasing in the degree of risk

aversion. Expected revenue is lower (higher) when bidders are risk averse (loving) than when

they are risk-neutral. Platt et al. (2013) find evidence for modest degrees of risk-loving

preferences. However, the reported range of estimated degrees of risk aversion is wide (varying

between -0.0017 (for $1,000) and -0.03 (for the 50 free bids)), and the degree of risk aversion

appears to depend on the product that is auctioned off. Moreover, in contrast to ascending pay-

per-bid auctions (Reiner, Brünner, Natter, & Skiera, 2014; Platt et al., 2013,) there are no

estimates of the risk attitudes of bidders in descending pay-per-bid auctions. Therefore, we

assume risk-neutral bidders in the theoretical models of all auction formats.

Common valuations of products: Each bidder values the product to be auctioned off at the

commonly known willingness-to-pay (WTP) of v. For art, antique furniture and other collectors’

items that are typically associated with auctions, the assumption that all bidders value a product

equally is certainly improbable. However, because the products that are offered at pay-per-bid

auctions are brand new products that are readily available at alternative shopping websites or

high street retailers, we believe that the assumption is reasonable. Augenblick (2012) shows that

a theoretical model in which bidders have independent private valuations converges to the full

information common valuation case as the differences in valuation decrease.

Current retail price (CRP) = willingness-to-pay (WTP): Pay-per-bid auction providers

display a product’s CRP for the entire time of the auction. This price is often higher than the

prices that other shopping websites post for the same product. For example, Augenblick (2012)

reports that the average price of Amazon is only 79% of the CRP. However, bidders’ WTP is in

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turn estimated to be 15% to 65% higher than the Amazon price (Platt et al., 2013). These

numbers lead to a range for the WTP that is between 90.85% (1.15 x 79%) and 130.35% (1.65 x

79%) of the CRP. Because this value is posted prominently on the auction website, it may also

serve as an anchor. Therefore, we use the CRP as a proxy for the WTP, which should work well

for cash or vouchers because the CRP is simply equal to the amount of cash or the monetary

value of the voucher.

3.2. Economic Analysis of Ascending Pay-per-Bid Auctions

In the following, we present the baseline model of the ascending pay-per-bid auction

developed by Platt et al. (2013) and Augenblick (2012). There are n bidders. The ascending

auction starts at a price of zero. Each bid increases the price by d and costs b. After each bid, all

bidders (except the current highest bidder) decide whether to place a bid or not. If several bidders

decide to bid, then one of them is randomly selected, pays the bidding fee b and becomes the new

highest bidder. The current price is raised by d. Thus, after q bids, the auction price is qd. If none

of the bidders places a new bid, then the auction ends, and the current highest bidder buys the

product for the current auction price.

Platt et al. (2013) and Augenblick (2012) show that there is a symmetric subgame perfect

equilibrium in mixed strategies; after q-1 bids, every bidder who is not the current highest bidder

places a bid with probability :

(1)

To obtain an intuition for the equilibrium strategy in equation (1), let us first argue why the

behavior of bidders is stochastic or, more technically, why there is no symmetric equilibrium in

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pure strategies. Suppose that the number of bids is low, such that the WTP for a product exceeds

the current price plus the bidding cost: v > qd + b. If a bidder knew that all other bidders would

not bid, then she would bid and make a bargain. As a result, a situation in which no bidder places

a bid cannot be an equilibrium. Similarly, when all bidders always place a bid early in the

auction, it will become advantageous for a bidder to wait and allow the other bidders to pay the

bidding fees until there is a positive probability that the auction will end. Thus, a situation in

which all bidders always bid is also not an equilibrium. Therefore, the only symmetric

equilibrium is in mixed strategies. The probability of making a bid is determined such that

bidders are indifferent between placing a bid and not placing a bid.

The parameter in the equilibrium strategy in equation (1) is the probability that at least one

bidder will place a bid in the first period. This parameter is not uniquely determined in

equilibrium. However, if no one places a bid in the first round, which occurs with probability

, then the auction ends, and the auctioneer can immediately set up a new, identical auction.

If, again, no bidder places a bid, then the auctioneer can restart the auction repeatedly until there

is at least one bid in the first round. In our data set, we only have auctions that attracted at least

one bid. Therefore, we set to concentrate on auctions that have at least one active bidder.

Platt et al. (2013) show that in an ascending auction with WTP v, these bidding strategies lead

to the following expected value and variance of the revenue of one auction Ra:

(2a)

(2b)

The result for the expected revenue can be obtained by the following logic. The total surplus

of auctioneer and bidders together is then the WTP, v. However, in equilibrium, bidders are

indifferent between placing a bid and not bidding. Consequently, bidders are also indifferent

between placing no bid at all and actively participating in the auction. Because placing no bid at

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all yields a utility of zero, participating in the auction must also have an expected utility of zero.

If the bidders’ expected utilities are zero, the entire surplus accrues to the auctioneer and thus, the

auctioneer’s expected revenue is v. The expression for the variance of revenues in equation (2b)

is the variance of a continuous approximation of the distribution of revenues implied by the

bidding strategies in equation (1).

The expectation and variance of revenue presented in equations (2a) and (2b) were derived

for a single auction in which the bidders’ WTP is v. In our empirical analysis, we calculate

expected revenues by averaging revenues of auctions that were conducted during the period from

August 2007 to March 2009. Similarly, the variance is estimated by the sample variance of

revenues from auctions in that period. Because the WTP changed over that period, the relevant

benchmarks are not the conditional moments in equations (2a) and (2b) but the unconditional

expectation and variance given by the following:2

(3a)

(3b)

where E(v) and Var(v) are the expectation and the variance of the WTP, respectively.

The data sets analyzed below include ascending auctions with per-bid price increments of

d = €0.01 and d = €0.10. Therefore, we seek to determine the effect of a change in d on revenues.

From equations (3a) and (3b), we obtain the following predictions:

Prediction 1: An increase in the price increment d reduces the variance of auctioneer revenues in

ascending pay-per-bid auctions.

Prediction 2: An increase in the price increment d leaves the expected revenue in ascending pay-

per-bid auctions unaffected.

2 Here, we use the result that .

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3.3. Economic Analysis of Descending Pay-per-Bid Auctions

For the descending auction, we adapt the theoretical model by Gallice (2011), such that the

assumptions are the same as in the theoretical model by Augenblick (2012) and Platt et al.

(2013). We show below that the main results of Gallice (2011) are not affected by this

modification.

The descending pay-per-bid auction begins at a price, s, which is usually equal to the current

retail price (CRP). The starting price is publicly observable. Each bid decreases the current

auction price by e and costs b. The bidding costs are greater than the price decrement, b > e.3 In

contrast to the ascending auction, the current auction price is not publicly observable. Only the

current bidder can view this price. After observing the current auction price, the bidder can

decide whether to buy the product or not. If she decides to buy, then she pays the current auction

price, and the auction ends. If she decides not to buy, then the auction continues. The other

bidders do not know whether and how often someone has observed the price. Otherwise, a bidder

could count the number of times that the price has been observed and would know the current

price.

Gallice (2011) studies a descending pay-per-bid auction, assuming that bidders have

independently distributed private valuations for the product that is for sale. He shows that when

the highest valuation of a bidder is below the starting price, no bidder will place a bid. We build

on his theoretical model, but in contrast to Gallice (2011), we assume that bidders have

commonly known valuations for the products auctioned and, hence, a common WTP, v, that is

known. If the starting price is excessively high, i.e., v < s - e + b, then no bidder will see the

price, and the product will not be sold in equilibrium. If the starting price is sufficiently low, i.e.,

3 If b were smaller than e, then a bidder could observe the price v/e times and buy for a price of 0. The total bidding

costs of this strategy would be bv/e, which is smaller than the WTP v, given that b < e.

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v > s - e + b, then all bidders will want to see the price, and the first bidder who does so will buy

the product. The highest starting price that attracts participation by rational bidders is = v + e -

b. If a bidder places a bid, then she pays b and observes the price - e = v - b. Thus, the

maximum revenue per auction that the auctioneer can extract from rational bidders is .4

Note that for a given common WTP v, the auctioneer’s revenue in descending auctions is

deterministic. However, as for the ascending auction, the relevant benchmarks for our empirical

results are the unconditional expectation and variance:

(4a)

(4b)

Note that the starting price in the descending pay-per-bid auctions in our data set is the CRP.

We assume that the WTP is equal to the CRP. Because of the bidding cost, the CRP is slightly

above the maximum starting price .5 This characteristic implies that in equilibrium, we should

expect no bids in the descending auctions. This result is clearly at odds with the empirical results

of real descending pay-per-bid auctions in which we observe active participation.

The fact that bidders observe the price although the starting price is above can be explained

by considering their curiosity. If a bidder is curious about the hidden value of the price, then she

might receive some additional utility from lifting the veil and observing the price. If this

additional utility is greater than the difference of bidding costs and price decrement, b-e, then a

curious bidder will place a bid. Even when all bidders are rational (i.e., not curious) but believe

that some bidders are curious, it is rational to participate because curious bidders might have

4 The formal presentation of the equilibrium of the descending pay-per-bid auction and the proof are given in

Appendix A.

5 For the descending auctions in our data set, bidding costs are b=0.49, and the price decrement is e=0.40. Thus, the

maximum starting price is =CRP-0.09, which is slightly below the actually chosen starting price, which is equal to the CRP.

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placed a bid already and it would thus be profitable to place the next bid.6 However, because the

difference between the true starting price and the maximum starting price is minuscule

compared to the average CRP of the products sold in descending pay-per-bid auctions (€153.48),

we assume that the auctioneer sets the maximum starting price at .

It is easy to observe from equations (4a) and (4b) that the bidding costs, b, and the price

decrement, e, do not affect expected revenue and the variance of revenue. Unfortunately, neither

the bidding costs nor the price decrement was altered during the time period that our sample

encompasses. Therefore, there are no descending auction counterparts to Predictions 1 and 2 for

ascending auctions.

3.4. Theoretical Comparison of Ascending and Descending Pay-per-Bid Auctions

Having derived the revenues for both auction formats, we can now compare revenues per

auction and their variance for ascending and descending pay-per-bid auctions. Examining

equations (3a) – (4b), we obtain the following predictions:

Prediction 3: The variance of an auctioneer's revenue per auction is higher in ascending pay-per-

bid auctions than in descending auctions.

Prediction 4: Ascending pay-per-bid auctions generate the same expected revenues as descending

auctions.

4. Empirical Study of Ascending Auctions

Based on our economic analyses of ascending and descending auctions, we now aim to

empirically test our predictions (1-4) by comparing the expected revenues (serving as a

benchmark) derived from the theoretical model with actual revenues and by explaining the

resulting differences.

6 The websites of descending pay-per-bid auctioneers display the results of past auctions. Bidders can observe that

past auctions attracted bids and that the product was finally sold at a price below the current retail price. Thus, a rational bidder can conclude that there must be some curious bidders.

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In the following, we will first analyze ascending and descending auctions separately (Section

4 and 5). In Section 6, we will study the differences between ascending and descending pay-per-

bid auctions.

4.1. Data

We collected data from a European ascending pay-per-bid auctioneer that provided us with

two unique data sets. In contrast to a platform such as eBay that includes three parties

(auctioneer, buyer, and seller), the auctioneer is also the seller. Additionally, the auctioneer sells

only brand new products that are currently available at retailers (i.e., common collectibles). Used

products and older-generation products are not auctioned.

The first data set (A1) contains the results of all ten-cent (N=42,042) and penny (N=1,112)

ascending auctions from December 2007 to November 2008 (43,154 auctions in total). For each

completed auction, we received information about what product was auctioned, the final price,

the current retail price (CRP), the end time and the number of bids placed by the winners of the

auction. All auctions start at a price of €0.00, and each bid costs €0.50.

The second data set (A2) contains the results of 1,460 ascending auctions completed in March

2009, plus additional information regarding the bidding histories of these auctions, including

949,750 bids and their respective bidders. Data set A2 also includes information regarding the

participating bidders beyond these bids, such as their overall bidding experience with the

auctioneer (e.g., the number of auctions won, the number of auctions participated in) and

demographic information.

The two data sets differ in their numbers of auctions and in the details that are provided for

each auction. Data set A1 contains considerably more auctions, whereas data set A2 provides

more details regarding all bids (e.g., bidding time, nickname of bidder) and information regarding

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bidders beyond their behavior in these auctions (their first bidding date, the number of auctions

with bids placed, the number of auctions won, total bids placed, gender and age).

All data sets include information on the auction end time, the nickname of the winner, the

number of bids made by the winner, the total number of bids made (by the winner and the losers),

the product sold and its CRP. According to the auctioneer, the CRP represents an average price

value for the product on the basis of other online retailers. Table 2 provides an overview of the

product categories of the auctioned products from both data sets.

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Table 2

Description of the Data Sets

Product Category Typical Products in Category

Ascending Auction

(A1)

Ascending Auction

(A2)

# Ten-Cent

Auctions

# Penny

Auctions

# Ten-Cent

Auctions

# Penny

Auctions

Video Game Console Nintendo DS, Nintendo Wii, PSP, PS3, Xbox 360 10,465 1 422 0

Software Programs, PC games, Video games 8,949 1 244 0

Computer Accessories USB, Computer bags, Keyboards 4,332 1 185 0

Jewelry Watches, Bracelets 3,231 1 48 0

Computer Hardware Desktop, Notebook, Printer, Monitors 2,585 440 0 71

Home Appliances Coffee machine, Washer, Dental care, Shaver 2,230 13 38 0

Small Electronic Goods Mobiles, Telephones, Digital frame, Modem 2,102 28 0 38

Perfume Roma, D&G, Hugo Boss, Calvin Klein 1,407 0

Toys Lego, Fisher-Price 1,389 0

Fast-Moving Electronic

Appliances Mp3, Digital Camera 1,191 11 66 0

GPS Falk, Navignon, TomTom 623 480 0 45

DVD Blockbuster, TV series 922 0

TV + Audio-visual Samsung, LG, Philips 627 133 7 30

Housewares Cutlery, Pots 407 0

Cash Cash and 5 kg Gold 11 0

Vouchers iTunes 25 €, 150 Free Bids, 300 Free Bids 43 0 0 266

Others Bags, Key Rings 1,528 3

TOTAL 42,042 1,112 1,010 450

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4.2. Comparison of Actual and Expected Revenues per Auction

First, we compare actual revenues and expected revenues. For all revenues, we calculate

the average revenues across all categories standardized by their CRP, i.e. we divided the

revenues per auction by the corresponding CRP. We use equation (2a) to calculate the

expected revenues and use a t-test to compare them with actual revenues. To perform the t-

test, we also apply the variances of standardized expected revenues from equation (2b). Table

3 depicts the standardized means of the actual and expected revenues per auction as well as

the percentage difference across all categories for both the ten-cent auctions and the penny

auctions. As noted above, we assume that the WTP is equal to the CRP. This assumption is

certainly valid for products such as vouchers or cash, as these products are of a defined value

that is common to everyone (i.e., every bidder values a €50 voucher or €50 in cash equally).

However, this assumption may also hold for the remaining products: all auctioned products

are brand new, are in their original packaging and are currently sold at competitive retailers.

Additionally, the CRP represents an average price value for each product from common

online retailers.

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Table 3

Comparison of Means of Actual and Expected Standardized Revenues per Auction from

Ascending Auctions

Product

Category

Ten-Cent Auction

Penny Auction

N Actual

Revenue

Expected

Revenue Δ-% N

Actual

Revenue

Expected

Revenue Δ-%

Cash 11 2.07 1.00 *** 107%

Voucher 43 0.98 1.00 n.s.

185 4.21 1.00 *** 321%

Video Game

Console 10,887 1.75 1.00 *** 75%

Fast-Moving

Electronic

Appliances

1,257 1.34 1.00 *** 34%

11 0.73 1.00 n.s.

Software 9,190 1.26 1.00 *** 26%

Computer

Hardware 2,579 0.94 1.00 *** -6%

510 1.77 1.00 *** 77%

DVD 922 0.94 1.00 n.s. -6%

GPS 623 0.91 1.00 ** -9%

525 1.58 1.00 *** 58%

Toys 1,389 0.90 1.00 *** -10%

Home

Appliances 2,266 0.90 1.00 *** -10%

13 0.76 1.00 n.s.

Perfume 1,408 0.87 1.00 *** -13%

Small

Electronic

Goods

2,096 0.86 1.00 *** -14%

66 1.31 1.00 ** 31%

TV + Audio-

visual 639 0.83 1.00 *** -17%

158 1.21 1.00 * 21%

Computer

Accessories 4,517 0.75 1.00 *** -26%

Housewares 407 0.74 1.00 *** -26%

Others 1,491 0.72 1.00 *** -28%

Jewelry 3,276 0.21 1.00 *** -79%

TOTAL 43,057 1.12 1.00 12% 1.557 1.90 1.00 *** 90%

Δ-%: percentage differences between the means of actual and expected standardized revenues; positive differences are

illustrated in green cells and negative differences in red. All revenues are standardized. Standardized revenue is defined as revenue / CRP; CRP: current retail price;

*** = p<0.01, two-tailed; ** = p<0.05, two-tailed; n.s. = not significant

First, observing only the categories with obvious common values (cash and voucher), we

find significant differences between the actual and expected revenues for the cash category.

Actual revenues are more than double with cash, meaning that the auctioneer sold e.g. €100

for €207. The deviation between actual and expected revenues for the voucher category is not

significant for ten-cent auctions. However, we do find significant and surprising differences

for this category in penny auctions: selling vouchers generated revenues that were sold for

four times above their expected value.

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For ten-cent auctions, the results in Table 3 illustrate that the auctioneer additionally

generated higher revenues per auction than expected in the video game console, fast-moving

electronic appliances and software categories. In the remaining categories, all revenues per

auction are significantly lower. One explanation may be that hedonic products, such as game

consoles, mp3 players (e.g., iPods), and video games, induce more emotions and consequently

more bids than utilitarian products such as home appliances or GPS devices.

However, in penny auctions, it is salient that the significant deviations from the expected

revenues are always in favor of the auctioneer. We do not find significant differences in the

fast-moving electronic appliances and electronic appliances categories. This may be due to the

low number of observations in these categories.

4.3. Explanations for Differences between Actual and Expected Revenues per Auction

To investigate these differences in greater detail, we conduct a regression analysis with

the difference in standardized revenues per auction ((actual revenue – expected

revenue)/CRP) as the dependent variable. Furthermore, we add a binary variable (penny

auction) to indicate whether an auction was a penny auction (value = 1) or a ten-cent auction

(value = 0) and account for the number of bidders in each auction and the type of category,

whether it is perceived as hedonic, utilitarian, or both hedonic and utilitarian. Additionally, we

investigate the role of average product value in each category (measured by the average CRP

in a category). Hence, the concept of hedonic and functional products, which was previously

tested as a reliable construct by Strahilevitz and Myers (1998), as well as the value of the

product (CRP) are used to explore potential differences in product categories (see Appendix).

Table 4 displays the results of the linear regression analysis of the ascending auction. We

use data set A2 only because A1 did not include information regarding the number of bidders

participating in each auction.

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Table 4

Drivers of Differences between Actual and Expected Standardized Revenues per Auction in

Ascending Auctions

Variable Parameter

Penny Auction 0.779 ***

Number of Bidders per Auction 0.013 ***

LN Current Retail Price -1.278 ***

Hedonic Category 0.422 **

Utilitarian Category -0.205 *

Hedonic & Utilitarian Categorya

Constant 6.044 ***

a: reference category

adj. R2 = 0.314, N = 1,337 Standardized revenue is defined as revenue / CRP; CRP: current retail price

*** = p<0.01, two-tailed; ** = p<0.05, two-tailed; * = p<0.10, two-tailed

The analysis includes 1,003 ten-cent and 334 penny auctions (123 auctions were excluded

because of missing values) and explains 31.4% of the variance in the dependent variable. In

contrast to theoretical models, which assume that the number of bidders has no influence,

Table 4 shows that a higher number of competing bidders leads to a higher difference between

actual and expected standardized revenues. As this number does not impact the expected

standardized revenues, it means that a higher number of bidders yields higher actual revenues

per auction, which benefits the ascending pay-per-bid auctioneer. This finding can be

explained by relaxing the assumption that all bidders know the exact number of participants.

Byers et al. (2010) show that the expected revenue exceeds its equilibrium level v if bidders

underestimate the true number of participants. Conversely, if bidders overestimate the number

of participants, the auctioneer’s revenue will decrease. A large (small) number of bidders in

our regression might pick up situations in which bidders underestimate (overestimate) the true

number of participants, therefore leading to higher (lower) actual revenue than expected.

We also find that those categories perceived as either only hedonic or both hedonic and

utilitarian (here, the reference category) additionally drive the auctioneer’s revenues. Thus,

hedonic categories may cause emotional arousal, which results in less rational bidding

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behavior and increased bidding efforts (Hirschman & Holbrook, 1982). Finally, more

valuable products (with higher CRPs), such as jewelry, negatively affect the relative

difference between actual and expected standardized revenues.

To understand this surprising result, we examine whether bidders increase the number of

bids in accordance with a higher product value (as measured by the CRP). The analysis shows

that the number of bids is highly correlated (r = 0.939) with the (log) product value (p < 0.01).

However, bidders only slightly increase their number of bids in accordance with a higher

CRP. More specifically, we find that the discount off the final price relative to the CRP is

positively correlated with the product value (r = 0.52). Thus, more valuable products are sold

at greater (percentage) discounts. Finally, small price increments (i.e., penny auctions)

positively affect auctioneers’ revenues. This finding is not surprising, as the results in Table 3

already suggest systematic differences between ten-cent and penny auctions with respect to

revenues. However, according to Prediction 2, revenues should be unaffected regardless of

varying changes in price. In the following section, we analyze Predictions 1 and 2 in greater

detail.

4.4. Comparison of Actual Revenues in the Context of Different Changes in Price

Our economic analysis suggests that an increase in the price increment per bid d reduces

the variance in auctioneers’ revenues (Prediction 1). Thus, in our data set, penny auction

revenues should exhibit wider variation than those of ten-cent auctions. Figure 2 shows the

distribution of revenues using the example of a GPS product (TomTom Go 930T, CRP =

€549, data set A1) that was auctioned off in both penny and ten-cent auctions.

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Figure 2 Distribution of Revenues per Auction (in Euro) for TomTom Go 930T at Penny and Ten-cent

Auctions

Figure 2 indicates that the variance differs between the two price increments. The

volatility of achieved revenues is much higher in penny auctions than in ten-cent auctions.

A two-group variance comparison test supports this indication (see Table 5). We compare

the variances of penny and ten-cent auctions across three product categories of data set A1

(GPS, Computer Hardware and TV/Audio-visual), in which we have at least 100 penny

auctions and ten-cent auctions. To attain comparability across the products, we again use

standardized revenues. We find that the variance of penny auctions is always significantly

greater (p < 0.01) than that of ten-cent auctions, thus supporting Prediction 1 from the

theoretical model.

To empirically compare the revenues per auction of penny and ten-cent auctions

(Prediction 2), we use a two-independent-sample t-test, which additionally accounts for the

unequal variances between the two price increments. In contrast to our predictions, we find

that the revenues of penny auctions are always significantly higher (p < 0.01) than the

revenues of ten-cent auctions. Thus, penny auctions may lead to rather unsteady revenues

compared with ten-cent auctions but appear to be more profitable for the auctioneer.

05

1015

Freq

uenc

y

0 1000 2000 3000 4000Revenues

Penny Auctions

01

23

45

Freq

uenc

y0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Revenues

Ten-cent Auctions

Mean: 897.18 Std. Dev: 833.20 N: 409

Mean: 636.14 Std. Dev: 421.71 N: 99

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Table 5

Comparison of Average Standardized Revenues per Auction and Variances of Penny and

Ten-Cent Auctions

Penny

Auction Ten-Cent

Auction Δ-%

N Meana

Std.

Dev. N Meana

Std.

Dev. Meana

Std.

Dev

GPS 480 1.57 1.48

623 0.91 *** 0.77 ***

72% 92%

Computer Hardware 440 1.83 1.89

2,585 0.94 *** 0.80 ***

95% 137%

TV + Audio 133 1.16 1.32

627 0.83 *** 0.75 ***

40% 75%

TOTAL 1,112 1.58 1.64 42,042 1.12 *** 1.02 *** 41% 61%

a: standardized revenues, defined as revenue / CRP; CRP: current retail price

Δ-%: percentage differences between the means and standard deviations of penny and ten-cent auctions

*** = p<0.01, two-tailed

5. Empirical Study of Descending Auctions

5.1. Data

We also received data (D1) from a descending pay-per-bid auctioneer, including all

completed auctions (1,460) from August 2007 to October 2008. Similar to A2, this data set

contains both the results of all auctions and the corresponding bidding histories (N=192,988).

Here, auctions began at the products’ CRPs and each bid, which cost €0.49, decreased the

price by €0.40. Information regarding the bidding fees, the change in price and the starting

price, the CRP, was publicly available; however, the current price was not publicly available.

After placing a bid (and paying the bidding fee), the current price of the product was shown to

the bidder. Viewing further updates of the current price required placing additional bids. The

bidders also had no idea about the number of competitors and the starting time of the auction.

Thus, they could not infer current prices.

Similar to the ascending auctions, only one seller auctions brand new products in original

packaging. Table 6 gives an overview of the auctioned products.

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Table 6

Description of Data Set (D1) with Descending Auctions

Product Category Products per Category Number of Auctions

Video Game Console Nintendo DS, Nintendo Wii, PSP, PS3, Xbox 360 126

Software Programs, PC games, Video games 69

Computer Accessories USB, Computer bags, Keyboards 208

Jewelry Watches, Bracelets 18

Computer Hardware Desktop, Notebook, Printer, Monitors 101

Home Appliances Coffee machine, Washer, Dental care, Shaver 105

Small Electronic Goods Mobile, Telephones, Digital frame, Radio 142

Perfume Hugo Boss, Lagerfeld 14

Toys Lego, Board games 64

Fast-Moving Electronic

Appliances Mp3, Digital camera 196

GPS Falk, Navignon, TomTom 26

DVD Blockbuster, TV series 81

TV + Audio-visual Samsung, LG, Philips 40

Housewares Fondue pots 16

Vouchers Free bids, 100€ voucher 161

Others Bags, Magazine subscription 93

TOTAL 1,460

5.2. Comparison of Actual and Expected Revenues per Auction

We again standardize all revenues and then compare actual revenues with expected

revenues that were derived from equation (4a) (see Table 7). We again assume that the WTP

is a given common value that is equal to the CRP.

The actual revenues indicate that the variance is significantly different from zero. This

result can be explained by fluctuations in the WTP or CRP over time (see equation (4b)).

However, the variance is also different from zero in the voucher category, in which we expect

the same common value over time. Thus, alternatively, bidders who seek to achieve a large

discount may not decide to buy the product when the WTP is lower than the price in the

auction. Rather, such bidders wait until the price decreases further, hoping that other bidders

will think similarly. Information regarding final prices, which is provided on the website, may

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support this behavior: knowing that other bidders do not directly buy when the price is below

their own WTP may convince bidders to wait as well or to place multiple bids.

Table 7 also shows that actual revenues are significantly higher than expected revenues in

all categories; on average, the descending pay-per-bid auctioneer generated higher revenues

with the auctions compared with selling the products at their CRP across all categories.

Table 7

Comparison of the Means of Actual and Expected Standardized Revenues from Descending

Auctions

Product Category N Actual

Revenue

Std.

Dev.

Expected

Revenue Δ-%

Vouchers 161 1.34 0.39 1.00 *** 34%

Perfume 14 1.24 0.37 1.00 ** 24%

Computer

Accessories 208 1.18 0.19 1.00 *** 18%

Toys 64 1.18 0.19 1.00 *** 18%

Others 93 1.18 0.17 1.00 *** 18%

DVD 81 1.18 0.09 1.00 *** 18%

Small Electronic

Goods 142 1.17 0.15 1.00 *** 17%

Software 69 1.16 0.09 1.00 *** 16%

Housewares 16 1.13 0.08 1.00 *** 13%

Home Appliances 105 1.13 0.12 1.00 *** 13%

Video Game

Console 126 1.12 0.10 1.00 *** 12%

Fast-Moving

Electronic

Appliances

196 1.12 0.09 1.00 *** 12%

Jewelry 18 1.09 0.10 1.00 *** 9%

TV + Audio-visual 40 1.08 0.11 1.00 *** 8%

GPS 26 1.08 0.08 1.00 *** 8%

Computer

Hardware 101 1.07 0.09 1.00 *** 7%

TOTAL 1,460 1.17 0.19 1.00 *** 17%

Δ-%: percentage differences between the means of actual and expected standardized revenues; positive differences are

illustrated in green cells. Standardized revenue is defined as revenue / CRP; CRP: current retail price;

*** = p<0.01, two-tailed; ** = p<0.05, two-tailed

Similar to the results of the ascending auction, the deviation of actual to expected

revenues is highest for the vouchers category. However, in contrast to the results of the

ascending auction, categories such as video game console or fast-moving electronic

appliances do not stand out.

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5.3. Explanations for Differences between Actual and Expected Revenues per Auction

To investigate the differences between actual and expected revenues per auction in

descending auctions, we again conduct a regression analysis with the difference in

standardized revenues ((actual revenue – expected revenue)/CRP) as the dependent variable.

Furthermore, we account for the number of bidders in each auction, the type of category and

the average product value. Table 8 displays the results of the linear regression analysis of the

descending auctions.

Table 8

Drivers of Differences between Actual and Expected Standardized Revenues per Auction in

Ascending Auctions

Variable

Parameter

Number of Bidders per Auction 0.002 ***

LN Current Retail Price -0.085 ***

Hedonic Category -0.022 **

Utilitarian Category

0.006 n.s.

Hedonic & Utilitarian Categorya

Constant 0.483 ***

a: reference category

adj. R2 = 0.186, N = 1460

Standardized revenue is defined as revenue / CRP; CRP: current retail price

*** = p<0.01, two-tailed; ** = p<0.05, two-tailed; n.s. = not significant

Our estimation includes 1,460 auctions and explains 18.6% of the variance of the

dependent variable. The results reveal that the number of bidders in each auction significantly

affects revenue differences. Actual revenues increase with the number of bidders because the

number of bidders do not impact expected revenues. Thus, the number of bidders affects the

revenues per auction in both ascending and descending auctions.

Furthermore, purely hedonic product categories negatively affect revenue per auction

(compared with the reference category, hedonic and utilitarian). A possible explanation for

this finding is that in descending auctions, bidders may encounter an increasing trade-off

between ownership and additional savings. If the bidder has a strong desire to own the

product, then she will buy earlier, thus leading the actual revenues to converge with the

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expected revenues. If, however, the bidder is interested in obtaining a large discount, then she

will wait until there are sufficient bids. By contrast, in ascending auctions, there exists a

longer period in which the bidders can seek to attain both ownership and a large discount.

Bidders who seek to buy hedonic goods most likely fear that another bidder could buy the

product first. Finally, more valuable products negatively affect auctioneer revenues.

6. Comparison of Revenues of Descending Auctions and Ascending Auctions

Having analyzed ascending and descending pay-per-bid auctions separately, we now turn

to the comparison between the two auction formats. When comparing two auction formats in

the field, one ideally wants to compare them under the same conditions (e.g., by keeping the

set of bidders and products constant). This comparability is easier to achieve in laboratory

experiments, but that increase in internal validity could come at the expense of external

validity. Our field data provide advantages with respect to external validity but also provide

some challenges, as the comparison between auction formats may be confounded by

differences in the sets of bidders and products.

We aim to limit the effect of those unobservable differences by selecting two auction

websites that operate in the same geographic region, namely, Germany. We also restrict our

comparisons to auctions from the same period of time, namely, December 2007 to October

2008. Moreover, we focus on identical products (vouchers, iPods, video game consoles, and

USB sticks) that were sold sufficiently often on both auction websites (more than 40 times).

As a result, both auction websites address potential bidders who live in the same

geographic region and are interested in buying the same products during the same period of

time. The bidders then self-select themselves into one (or maybe both) of these auction

formats. Thus, although we control for many effects, self-selection may still affect our results.

Our comparison measures differences between the two auction formats under the condition

that bidders can freely choose between the two auction formats. This difference is still

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relevant information for auctioneers, as they must also consider the self-selection decisions of

bidders.

Our economic analysis suggests that the revenues of ascending auctions and descending

auctions are equal (Prediction 4) and that the variance of descending auctions is lower than

the variance of ascending auctions (Prediction 3).

Table 9

Comparison of Mean Standardized Revenues and Variances of Ascending and Descending

Auctions

Ascending Auction Descending Auction Δ-% in

Means

Δ-% in

Variance N Mean

a

Std.

Dev. N Meana

Std.

Dev.

Voucher 43 0.98 0.69 111 1.22 0.02 -20% *** 3,977% ***

Video Game Console 9,376 1.73 1.06 66 1.09 0.09 59% *** 1,117% ***

iPod 607 1,46 0.95 130 1.11 0.09 31% *** 942% ***

USB Stick 1,984 0.73 0.65 69 1.13 0.09 -35% *** 645% ***

a: standardized revenue, defined as revenue / CRP; CRP: current retail price

Δ-%: percentage differences between the means of ascending and descending auctions *** = p<0.01, two-tailed

Table 9 displays the standardized revenues and variances across four identical products

that were sold on both websites from December 2007 to October 2008, taken from data sets

A1 und D1. All ascending auctions are ten-cent auctions. Consistent with our expectations,

variances are significantly higher in ascending auctions than in descending auctions. This

result holds across all observed categories. In the voucher category, the standard deviation is

nearly forty times higher in ascending auctions.

Figure 3 illustrates these strong deviations using the example of iPods. For the ascending

auction, the scale of the x-axis begins at zero because there are numerous auctions in which

the achieved revenues are smaller than the CRP. In contrast, the scale begins at 1 for

descending auctions, where revenues are at least as high as the CRP. The scale ends at 5 for

ascending auctions; hence, in some auctions, revenues are five times as high as the CRP. The

maximum standardized revenue for descending auctions is reached with revenues that are 1.3

times higher than the CRP.

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Figure 3

Distribution of the Standardized Revenues of Ascending and Descending Auctions for iPods

Standardized Revenues = Revenue per Auction / Current Retail Price

Thus, ascending pay-per-bid auctions are associated with higher risks but result in a much

wider range of standardized revenues. The results in Table 9 also indicate that the revenues of

this specific category (iPods) are even significantly higher in ascending auctions than in

descending auctions. This finding contradicts Prediction 4, which posited revenue

equivalence. Table 9 shows that the reverse is true for vouchers and USB sticks. Here,

standardized revenues are 20% to 35% lower in ascending auctions. However, standardized

revenues for video game console and iPods, defined as revenues relative to the CRP, are

significantly higher in ascending ten-cent auctions, ranging from 37% to 59% higher in the

video game consoles category.

The differences in our results may again be explained by category differences. As we have

previously shown, the increased revenues for hedonic products such as video game consoles

and iPods in ascending auctions may be caused by irrational bidding behavior resulting from

emotional arousal or overestimation of bargain. In contrast, hedonic products result in

decreased revenues in descending auctions. Here, we expect that if the bidder has a strong

desire to own a product, then she will buy early for fear of another bidder taking the product.

020

4060

Freq

uenc

y

0 1 2 3 4 5

Standardized Revenues

Ascending Auction

010

2030

4050

Freq

uenc

y1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2

Standardized Revenues

Descending Auction

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7. Summary, Implications and Future Research

7.1. Summary of Results

The objective of this paper was to theoretically and empirically analyze the economic

effects of alternative formats of pay-per-bid auctions, in particular different auction formats

(ascending versus descending auction) and different price increments (one-cent versus ten-

cent auctions). For this purpose, we adapted and extended existing theoretical models on pay-

per-bid auctions, formulated predictions regarding auctioneers’ revenues and tested them

empirically with three large, unique data sets.

Analyzing ascending pay-per-bid auctions, we found that an increase in the price

increment for each bid reduces the variance of the auctioneer’s revenue, confirming our

prediction: a higher change in price increment reduces the risk that is associated with selling

the product. We found that the use of ten-cent auctions yields revenues per auction that are

less volatile and consequently less risky than the use of penny auctions.

However, penny auctions led to higher revenues per auction compared with ten-cent

auctions. In contrast to Prediction 2, our analysis provides evidence that an increase in the

price increment affects the expected revenue.

We further explained the observed differences between the actual revenues and the

expected revenues that were derived from the theoretical model, and we found that factors

such as the number of bidders and the type of the product category (whether hedonic or

utilitarian) are drivers of these differences.

Our empirical data set of descending pay-per-bid auctions did not include different price

increments; thus, we could not determine their economic effects. However, the data showed

differences between actual revenues and expected revenues. Again, the number of bidders and

the characteristic of the category (hedonic or utilitarian) were found to affect these

differences.

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Finally, we compared ascending and descending pay-per-bid auctions. Confirming

Prediction 3, we found that the variance of the revenue per auction is higher in ascending

auctions than in descending auctions. However, in contrast to Prediction 4, which postulated

revenue equivalence between ascending and descending pay-per-bid auctions, we found

significant differences in revenues per auction.

The theoretical model helps to place our empirical results into perspective. Average

revenues per auction above the CRP are not supported by the predictions of the theoretical

model. Consequently, average revenues are the result of a consumer behavior that is not

consistent with the theoretical model, such as non-equilibrium play, the overvaluation of

products, risk-loving preferences or other forms of behavior that are inconsistent with our

assumptions. However, all these phenomena may be transitory. The longer these new auction

formats are available, the more experience users obtain. Ultimately, individuals may learn to

play the equilibrium. Risk-seeking shoppers may move on to newer entertainment shopping

venues. Irrational individuals could learn to act more rational in pay-per-bid auctions or avoid

them altogether. Therefore, our empirical findings should be interpreted with caution because

average revenues above CRP may not be sustainable over a long period.

7.2. Implications

Our findings provide a number of implications for marketers and researchers. First,

auctioneers can use the findings from our study to consider different auction formats that may

improve their revenues. For ascending pay-per-bid auctioneers, our results indicate that penny

auctions yield higher revenues per auction but are also associated with higher risks. Thus, an

ascending auctioneer must weigh the individual advantages and disadvantages of such a

method. Our results further imply that an ascending pay-per-bid auctioneer may benefit from

a higher number of bidders and may benefit from selling products in hedonic categories rather

than utilitarian categories in the short term. Thus, such an auctioneer could make a greater

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effort to enhance traffic (e.g., through advertising) and to auction off more hedonic products

than utilitarian products.

On the contrary, our results suggest that a descending pay-per-bid auctioneer should sell

utilitarian products rather than hedonic products in their auctions. Auctions with hedonic

products end earlier, leading to lower revenues per auction.

Finally, we would recommend that auctioneers who cannot decide between ascending

and descending formats should choose the descending format when they are risk-averse and to

choose an ascending format when they are less risk-averse because the latter method offers

potential for a much wider range of revenues.

7.3. Future Research

A crucial question that is beyond the aim of this paper would involve determining how

long the differences between actual and expected revenues occur. Although our data sets

cover a period of up to one year, this period may be too short to fully capture bidders'

learning. Such learning would reduce the differences between actual and expected revenues

per auction. Future research may thus aim to analyze the development of the observed

differences over time.

Additionally, our comparison of the revenue per auction between ascending and

descending pay-per-bid auctions could not fully separate the effect of the auction format from

the self-selection effect of bidders. Although the difference that includes both effects is

relevant information for auction providers, future research may be capable of better

distinguishing these effects.

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Appendix A: Equilibrium of the Descending Pay-per-Bid Auction

In this appendix we prove that the following strategies constitute a subgame perfect

equilibrium: (i) The auctioneer chooses the starting price s=v+e-b. (ii) All bidders want to

place a bid if s≤ v+e-b. If the starting price is above v+e-b, no bidder wants to place a bid.

(iii) Once a bidder observes the price she buys the product and the auction ends.

Proof of part (iii). Suppose all players except bidder j follow the equilibrium strategies

given above. Assume first that bidder j is the first bidder who observes the price. She observes

the price v-b. The starting price is v+e-b and bidder j’s bid reduces this price by e. Since she

values the product at v, buying the product gives her utility of b. If she does not buy the

product, then the next bidder who observes the price will buy it and bidder j will receive

nothing. Thus, there is no profitable deviation for bidder j. Assume now that bidder j is not the

first to observe the price. Then, the utility from buying the product is greater than b, whereas

the utility from not buying is still 0. Again, there is no profitable deviation for bidder j.

Proof of part (ii). Suppose that all players except bidder j follow the equilibrium strategies

given above. If bidder j places a bid, observes the price and buys the product, then she

receives a utility of v-(s-e)-b. The first part of this expression is the value of the product, the

second is the price bidder j pays and the last part is the bidding fee. When bidder j acquires

the opportunity to observe the price, she must be the first bidder to observe the price, as part

(iii) tells us that otherwise, the auction would have ended already. Not bidding yields a utility

of zero. Thus, bidder j wants to place a bid, if v-(s-e)-b≥0 which can be rewritten as s≤ v+e-b.

Proof of part (i). Suppose that all bidders follow the equilibrium strategies given above.

The auctioneer’s revenue is s-e+b, if s≤ v+e-b and 0, otherwise. This revenue is maximized

for s=v+e-b and the maximum revenue is equal to v.

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Appendix B: Description of Scales and Categorization of Products

To categorize products as hedonic or utilitarian, we surveyed a sample of 86 people and

asked our respondents to classify the products as hedonic or utilitarian products. For this

purpose, we introduced the respondents to the concept of hedonic and utilitarian products and

asked them to classify the products according to the method of Strahilevitz and Myers (1998)

as utilitarian (practical), hedonic (frivolous), both utilitarian and hedonic, or neither utilitarian

nor hedonic. The classification of products was then based on the modal classification of the

respondents.

Categorization of Hedonic/Utilitarian Products

Product Current retail

price in €

Categorization of product as

hedonic utilitarian

Nintendo Wii 172 1 0

Apple iPod Touch 142 1 1

Nintendo WiiFit 71 1 0

Nintendo DS Lite 107 1 0

TomTom GO 740 399 0 1

Nikon D90 Camera 992 1 1

Kaspersky Internet Security 35 0 1

Phillips Full HD TV 1,269 1 0

Braun Oral-B Triumph 121 0 1

Panasonic KX 74 0 1

Acer Aspire 1,000 1 1

Samsung SGH-i900 601 1 1

Rothenschild Kryptonite 236 0 1

Kingston Data Traveler 32GB 59 0 1

Voucher 50 bids 25 0 1

1: yes; 0: no

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